The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Matt Holliday’s Cardinals’ stats (he ranked 56th overall based on 235 At-Bats).

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 1) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 4.03 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.54 Sherpa Pts

2. Hanley Ramirez (3) - FLA, SS

• Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts

3. Ryan Braun (7) - MIL, OF

• Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

4. Prince Fielder (24) - MIL, 1B

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Kemp (2) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Howard (11) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

7. Chase Utley (16) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 565 AB, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, .285 AVG, 112 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 495 AB, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 11 SB, .309 AVG, 95 R, 2.66 Sherpa Pts

8. Troy Tulowitzki (67) - COL, SS

• Actual stats: 535 AB, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 20 SB, .299 AVG, 99 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 578 AB, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .268 AVG, 90 R, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Mark Reynolds (43) - ARI, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 567 AB, 44 HR, 101 RBI, 24 SB, .263 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 518 AB, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .263 AVG, 94 R, 2.14 Sherpa Pts

10. Derrek Lee (18) - CHC, 1B

• Actual stats: 525 AB, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, .309 AVG, 91 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 621 AB, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 12 SB, .296 AVG, 97 R, 2.64 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - Hanley Ramirez’ shift from first to third in the Marlins’ batting order had exactly the opposite effect from what I’d projected. Instead of increasing his power numbers at the expense of his batting average, the reverse occurred.  Also, it’s interesting to see how a higher-than-expected Stolen Base total can lead to a large spike in a player’s fantasy value (e.g.- Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. David Wright (4) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.35 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts

140. Jose Reyes (5) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.25 Sherpa Pts

77. Alfonso Soriano (6) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.24 Sherpa Pts

53. Carlos Beltran (8) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts

51. Manny Ramirez (9) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 344 AB, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, .294 AVG, 62 R, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 538 AB, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .320 AVG, 97 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

33. Lance Berkman (10) - HOU, 1B

• Actual stats: 449 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 7 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 549 AB, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 12 SB, .302 AVG, 103 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts 

We’re gearing up here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 80 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 340 AB, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, .329 AVG, 69 R, 3.88 Total Sherpa Points
2. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 368 AB, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 19 SB, .332 AVG, 66 R, 3.72 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 385 AB, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 9 SB, .309 AVG, 77 R, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
4. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 145 K, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
5. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 407 AB, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 22 SB, .307 AVG, 67 R, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
6. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 131 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 121 K, 3.47 Total Sherpa Points
7. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 380 AB, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 16 SB, .311 AVG, 68 R, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
8. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 136 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 160 K, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 391 AB, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .297 AVG, 68 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
10. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 355 AB, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .304 AVG, 66 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 219 AB, 22 HR, 57 RBI, 9 SB, .324 AVG, 50 R, 3.95 Total Sherpa Points
2. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 242 AB, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG, 51 R, 3.81 Total Sherpa Points
3. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 94.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.20 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 90 K, 3.42 Total Sherpa Points
4. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 225 AB, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 17 SB, .364 AVG, 40 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
5. Mark Reynolds (Ari, 3B) - 231 AB, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .281 AVG, 42 R, 3.13 Total Sherpa Points
6. Jonathan Broxton (LAD, RP) - 32.0 IP, 6 W, 16 SV, 1.41 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 53 K, 2.95 Total Sherpa Points
7. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 213 AB, 15 HR, 43 RBI, 5 SB, .305 AVG, 46 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
8. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 215 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 8 SB, .344 AVG, 37 R, 2.88 Total Sherpa Points
9. Chad Billingsley (LAD, SP) - 92.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 93 K, 2.86 Total Sherpa Points
10. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 227 AB, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 4 SB, .313 AVG, 42 R, 2.80 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.85 Total Sherpa Points
2. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.79 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.44 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
7. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points
8. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 511 AB, 27 HR, 101 RBI, 19 SB, .295 AVG, 95 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 514 AB, 23 HR, 93 RBI, 18 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) - 587 AB, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 51 SB, .291 AVG, 96 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.38 Sherpa Pts

2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS

• Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.48 Sherpa Pts

4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF

• Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF

• Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.63 Sherpa Pts

6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 606 AB, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB, .284 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 553 AB, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 21 SB, .273 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.28 Sherpa Pts

9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 4 SB, .299 AVG, 104 R, 2.83 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 399 AB, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .261 AVG, 69 R, 1.45 Sherpa Pts

10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF

• Actual stats: 611 AB, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 14 SB, .285 AVG, 92 R, 2.73 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 592 AB, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 104 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 610 AB, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 AVG, 105 R, 2.71 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS

• Actual stats: 556 AB, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG, 76 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 684 AB, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 39 SB, .289 AVG, 128 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 453 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 76 R, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 39 HR, 85 RBI, 26 SB, .285 AVG, 110 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts

21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB, .291 AVG, 93 R, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 575 AB, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, .311 AVG, 100 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

An old baseball cliche describes the season as “a marathon, not a sprint”, and for most of the season, that comparison is appropriate. The baseball season has 26 weeks, a marathon is just over 26 miles, and surviving both requires a combination of pacing and persistence.

However, that comparison goes out the window in the final week of the baseball season for those managing a fantasy baseball team. With just a handful of games left on the schedule, there’s no time left to “pace yourself”. Those in head-to-head leagues are slugging it out for the league championship, a consolation round, or just for pride. Those in rotisserie leagues are scouring the standings, looking for opportunities to eke out a final precious point or two.

Regardless of which format your league uses, here are some helpful tips to keep in mind heading into the final week of the season:

1. Beware of injuries, especially to star players. If you still have the likes of Hideki Matsui, Carlos Guillen, or Yunel Escobar in your lineup (just to name a few), remove them from your lineup immediately! Don’t expect the Marlins to rush Hanley Ramirez back either. Teams will often shut down injured players early, especially if they’re out of the standings. Don’t get stuck with one of them in your lineup for the last week, or you may spend the entire off-season regretting it.
2. Maximize Games Played and Innings Pitched. If you’re trying to decide between two players of roughly similar ability for a spot in your final week’s lineup, remember to consider any differences in games played. Manny Ramirez may post better fantasy numbers over the course of a season than Carlos Beltran, but if the Mets play seven games in the final week of the season and the Dodgers play six, I’d go with Beltran in leagues that require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week. The same goes for Middle Relievers and Closers.
3. Be careful in selecting 2-start Pitchers. Johan Santana is listed as a two-start pitcher this week. That means he has to be in your weekly lineup, right? Maybe not. Of course, I’d still rather have one start from Johan Santana than two starts from most pitchers in the league. However, if I’m chasing Wins or Strikeouts at this point and am fairly locked into a place in the ERA and WHIP categories, I’d be looking for other options. If the Mets are already locked into a playoff spot (either as the division winner or the wild card) heading into the weekend, there’s a good chance they’ll skip Santana’s second start so that he’ll be available to pitch twice in a five-game playoff series. Remember, MLB teams could care less about how their decisions impact our fantasy rosters!
4. Keep up to date on recent Closer changes. Maybe the other owners in your league have stopped paying attention if they’re no longer in contention. Maybe the other owners are all happy with their current Closers. Whatever the reason, check to see whether recently annointed Closers such as Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom are available in your league.
5. Assume that playoff-bound teams will rest players. It’s a safe bet that teams like the Cubs and Angels will go easy on their Starting Pitchers and give their everyday players at least one or two games off during the last week of the season since they have nothing to play for. Since both these teams have seven games this week, I wouldn’t count on the everyday players starting more than five games.
6. Start players on teams that still have something to play for. The Mets are Exhibit A here, since they’re still in the running for both their division crown and the NL wild card. The Diamondbacks are another team with 7 games this week that still has something to play for. Although the Brewers have just 6 games this week, the Mets’ bullpen figures to keep them in the wild card race at least until the start of the weekend. The White Sox/Twins race will likely be decided before the weekend, as will the Rays/Red Sox race, so expect those teams to rest players once the races are decided.
7. Watch for other fantasy teams’ discards. The final week of the season usually gives rise to some interesting, if not downright questionable moves on the part of fantasy team owners. The vast majority of these moves are not the result of collusion; rather, they are the result of fantasy team owners assessing which categories they can still make up ground in, then acting on that assessment. However, this can create some great opportunities for the vigilant owner. Perhaps another team has dropped a Stolen Base guy or two (e.g. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn) in an effort to pick up a few more Home Runs the last week of the season. If you need Stolen Bases, be prepared to pounce.

Good luck the rest of the way!

The Sherpa