The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Phillies’ stats only (he ranked 47th based on 79.2 IP) and Jake Peavy’s Padres’ stats only (he ranked 59th based on 81.2 IP).

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 3) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

2. Javier Vazquez (30) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts

3. Chris Carpenter (190) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.25 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 IP, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.30 Sherpa Pts

4. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts

5. Adam Wainwright (10) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts

6. Josh Johnson (107) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 204.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 186 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 175 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 152 K, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

7. Matt Cain (22) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 212.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 178 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts

8. Jair Jurrjens (36) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 207 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 143 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 K, 1.35 Sherpa Pts

9. Wandy Rodriguez (69) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 199.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 190 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 151 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 K, 0.91 Sherpa Pts

10. Randy Wolf (105) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 209.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 157 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 135 K, 0.58 Sherpa Pts

Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wolf were complete surprises to me - they both pitched ~50 innings more than I’d projected for them, but of course that’s primarily a result of the fact they pitched much better than I expected. Chris Carpenter is the classic boom-or-bust pitcher coming off an injury.  Before you run out and stock up on pitchers coming back from injuries in 2010, think of Ben Sheets, who represents the flip side of that coin.  In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

16. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 2.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

59. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 81.2 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 K, 0.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.26 Sherpa Pts

37. Cole Hamels (4) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.97 Sherpa Pts

219. Brandon Webb (5) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

42. Rich Harden (7) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts

39. Roy Oswalt (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.23 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

60. Carlos Marmol (9) - CHC, RP

• Actual stats: 73 IP, 2 W, 15 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 91 K, 0.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 81 IP, 4 W, 25 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 107 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develope our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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Hard to believe, but we’re into the final three weeks of the baseball season! If you’re in a head-to-head league, you’re either in the middle of your league’s playoff schedule or just about to start it. For those of you in rotisserie leagues there isn’t as much change in the daily standings as there was earlier in the season, but there’s still time to maximize your team’s point total and climb in the standings.

One often overlooked way to accomplish just that is through the use of Set-up men & Middle Relievers. For the most part I’m referring to set-up man, although there are several teams with pitchers in both roles who can help your team down the stretch (e.g. - the Chicago White Sox’ Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton).

Such a strategy requires tradeoffs. Using a Set-up man or Middle Reliever instead of a Starting Pitcher will reduce your ability to accumulate Wins, although substituting a Set-up man or Middle Reliever from a good team for a Starting Pitcher on a bad team will often mitigate this impact. One of the two Starting Pitchers receives the victory in approximately 70% of all games, which leaves Long Relievers, Middle Relievers, Set-up men, and Closers to fight over the other 30%. Since they typically pitch 30-40% of the number of innings as Starting Pitchers, Middle Relievers and Set-up men also rack up fewer Strikeouts, although their strikeout rates per inning (or 9 innings, if you prefer) are often higher than those for Starting Pitchers.

The biggest advantage in using above average Set-up men & Middle Relievers over mediocre to sub-par Starting Pitchers comes in the ERA and WHIP categories, which are often overlooked, if not outright ignored by fantasy owners. Unlike the counting categories such as Wins and Strikeouts, a fantasy team’s ERA and WHIP can move in either direction. Obviously, you have little or no control over other owners’ lineup decisions, but I’ve found that at this point in the season, owners will often make questionable decisions with respect to Starting Pitchers in an effort to maximize Wins. These questionable decisions often come back to haunt the owners who make them - the Starting Pitcher fails to win the game and does long-term damage to his owner’s ERA and WHIP in the process.

While it may be tempting to go with a highly-touted September call-up as a Starting Pitcher (particularly if he has two starts in a given week), you’ll usually be better off going with a top-flight Set-up man or Middle Reliever if your goal is to improve your place in the standings. Just be aware of your league’s Minimum Innings Pitched requirement (if any) and make sure you’re likely to satisfy it before you decide to employ this strategy.

Here’s a list of some Set-up men and Middle Relievers who may be currently available in your league:

NL: Jon Rauch, Will Ohman, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Jared Burton, Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Hong-Chih Kuo, Brian Stokes, Joe Smith, J.C. Romero, and Heath Bell.

AL: Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Hideki Okajima, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Rafael Perez, Ramon Ramirez, Joba Chamberlain, Edwar Ramirez, Huston Street, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and Scott Downs.

Until next time,

The Sherpa