The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Here’s a review of the Pitchers’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 56,900, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,479 (LA Angels) to 2,261 (Texas), which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 1,400-1,500.
3. Totals Wins = 3,084; Total Losses = 3,165. Aside from the fact that the Wins and Losses don’t match, they’re both significantly higher than the number of games in a baseball season (2,430).
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/3,084) = 42.7%, which is significantly lower than the benchmark of 49%-52%. If the #Wins were corrected (i.e. - Total #Wins set to 2,430), then the #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/2,430) would be 54.2%, which would be above the 49%-52% benchmark.
5. Total #Earned Runs allowed = 26,167, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.14, which is below the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed = 20,346, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed = 57,734, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.37, which is within the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections, like their Hitters’ projections, appear to be “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections, with the possible exceptions of the #Saves and the WHIP. Some might argue that if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections are both overstated to the same degree, then using the entire set of projections will not create any problems. I disagree - even if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections were “equally out of whack”, the resulting projections for the second and third-tier players (i.e. - the ones that usually make the difference between a great winning fantasy team and an also-ran) will be too optimistic, resulting in these players being taken too soon in a draft or going for too much in an auction.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll continue my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. Next up are the Hitters’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 201,801, which is significantly greater than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 5,902 (Phillies) to 7,911 (Nationals) for NL teams, and 6,422 (Rays) to 7,777 (Rangers) for AL teams. Based on results for the past 3 seasons, a much more reasonable range is 5,100-5,400 AB for an NL team, and 5,400 to 5,800 AB for an AL team. You can draw your own conclusions on the likelihood of the Nationals’ Hitters accumulating 2,000 AB more than the Phillies and 1,000 AB more than teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
3. Total Hits = 55,302, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average is .274, which is slightly higher than the benchmark range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,343, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,829, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,793, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,495, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of you draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa