The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.73 Sherpa Pts

2. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts

3. Cole Hamels (7) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 3.01 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 IP, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

4. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts

5. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Dempster (106) - ChC, SP

• Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.64 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.53 Sherpa Pts

7. Ricky Nolasco (N/A - didn’t even have him in my preseason database!) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 212.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 186 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: N/A

8. CC Sabathia (1 in A.L.) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 130.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 128 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Derek Lowe (16) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 211 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 147 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 207 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 138 K, 2.00 Sherpa Pts

10. Ben Sheets (28) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 198.1 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 137 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 121 K, 1.58 Sherpa Pts

Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

12. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

11. Roy Oswalt (4) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

99. John Smoltz (5) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

98. Aaron Harang (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 184.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153 K, 0.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 222 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

60. Chris Young (9) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 102.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K, 0.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

132. Rafael Soriano (10) - ATL, RP

• Actual stats: 14 IP, 0 W, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16 K, 0.24 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 34 SV, 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 76 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

So it’s finally happened. Jay Bruce, who is less than half Barack Obama’s age and less than one-third of John McCain’s age, but has seemingly generated more conversation in 2008 (at least among fantasy baseball enthusiasts) than Obama and McCain combined, has finally landed in Cincinnati.

Stripping away the hype, what does this mean for those with the foresight to stash Bruce at the beginning of the season or the waiver wire priority to claim him during the season? Will he make the immediate impact that rookies Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence did after the call-ups during the 2007 season? Will he disappoint the way that Alex Gordon did during his rookie season (also 2007)? Or, as the cliche goes, does the true answer lie somewhere in the middle?

Based on his minor league rate stats, with a few subjective adjustments, here’s what I think you can realistically expect from Bruce for the rest of this season:

• 409 AB
• 62 R
• 114 H
• 30 2B
• 5 3B
• 16 HR
• 68 RBI
• 12 SB
• 36 BB
• 115 SO
• .279 AVG
• .330 OBP
• .494 SLG

So, where would these results place Bruce among his more established peers? The Sherpa Point scale assigns a score of 1.00 to the player with the top score in each category; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their result in that category compared to the league leader’s. For example, if the league leader is projected to hit 50 HRs, a batter projected to hit 40 HRs would receive 0.80 Sherpa HR pts, a batter projected to hit 25 HRs would receive 0.50 Sherpa HR pts, etc. For average-based categories such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS, a proxy statistic is used. Thus, if you play in a league that uses 5 offensive categories, the maximum Hitter’s Sherpa Points score would be 5.00.

Pro-rating my Preseason Projections for all Hitters, I project that in a league using the 5 standard offensive categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and R) Bruce would score 2.38 Sherpa Points. This would place Bruce roughly 20th overall, comparable to the projected Sherpa Point scores for fellow Outfielders Chris Young and B.J. Upton. Obviously, their Sherpa Point scores will vary by category (in some cases quite a bit), but on an overall basis, that’s where I believe Bruce’s value will fall. For the sake of comparison, the Top 3 Outfielders (based on Preseason Projected Sherpa Points) were Matt Holliday (3.56), Carl Crawford (3.19), and Vlad Guerrero (3.08).

So while Bruce should be a strong contributor to your fantasy team if you’re fortunate enough to have him, he will not carry you to your league’s championship by himself. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s eventually a Top 5 Outfielder from a fantasy perspective, but that’s highly unlikely to happen in 2008. As long as you temper your expectations, you will not be disappointed.

Until next time,

The Sherpa