The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

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Every fantasy baseball owner dreams of “discovering” the next Johan Santana or Jake Peavy before the rest of their leaguemates. However, many owners forget that for every Cole Hamels who bursts onto the fantasy scene and makes an immediate and lasting impact, there are many more pitchers like Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, who disappoint their owners when their initial successes are tempered, if not outweighed altogether, by their struggles.

This season has been no exception. Johnny Cueto looked like the second coming of Bob Gibson in his first two starts; lately, he has looked more like the second coming of Kei Igawa, serving up in-game batting practice for his opponents’ hitting pleasure. Cueto will most likely be sent back to the minors shortly to gain some much-needed experience. Nick Adenhart has already been banished back to the minors after just three awful starts.

Meanwhile, this year’s early-season pitching surprises include below-the-radar types such as Edinson Volquez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Garrett Olson, and Vicente Padilla. What, if anything, do they all have in common? All except for Smith had MLB experience prior to this year. All except for Olson have switched organizations at least once in their career. All of them have made at least 10 starts in AAA. All of them are 23-24 years old, except for Padilla, who is 30.

Which of the pitchers in this group have the best chance at sustaining their success over the course of the season? I looked at Year-to-Date stats for all MLB starting pitchers, searching for those who have started at least 3 games, have a K/9 rate of at least 6, and a K/BB ratio of at least 2. I also looked at Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) to see whether “luck” played a factor in a pitcher’s success (or lack thereof). These screening criteria suggest that Volquez and Danks have the best chance at remaining successful, with Olson also being a possibility.

These criteria also turned up some veteran pitchers who may still be available in your league. Bronson Arroyo is off to an atrocious start due to a combination of bad luck (a .357 BAABIP) and a severe case of gopheritis (1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched). However, his 3-year averages suggest that he is a much better pitcher than that - if you have space on your bench, I would definitely take a flier on Arroyo rather than burn my waiver priority or Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) dollars on Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched even a single game at the AAA level yet. If you’re going to gamble on an unproven pitcher currently in the minors, you’re far better off betting on Homer Bailey (the sequel) than you are putting your fantasy chips on Kershaw.

Other veterans who should do more for your fantasy staff than the likes of Darrell Rasner, Aaron Laffey, et. al. - Chad Gaudin (when, not if, he rejoins Oakland’s rotation); Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Milwood, and Curt Schilling (when they return from the DL). I’d also take a chance on Hong-Chih Kuo if he joins the Dodgers’ rotation. Shawn Hill and Jose Contreras are two other options to consider if you currently have holes in your pitching staff. Don’t get me wrong - none of the pitchers on this list will be receiving Cy Young votes this season, but they all have the potential to be serviceable starters at the back of your fantasy team’s rotation.

However, keep in mind that experience is not always an advantage - if you want to add Livan Hernandez, Matt Chico, or Sidney Ponson to your fantasy pitching staff, you do so at your own peril - they are definitely the fantasy baseball equivalents of the Trojan horse, and you will get no sympathy from me if you choose to add any of them!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement next week for the DL’d Michael Barrett, and you’re the only team in your league that needs to pick up a Catcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Livan Hernandez, even if you are unlucky enough to have Pedro Martinez, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Doug Davis on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence, but you’re much more likely to get the next Nelson Cruz or Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Heath Bell, Rafael Betancourt, Tony Pena (the pitcher!), Carlos Quentin, and Joey Votto (if available in your league) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

If your league also allows a claim before the first week of the season, here’s how I’d recommend adjusting your FAAB spending:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $7; $7 spent YTD, $93 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $14; $86.
• Week 3 - $7; $21; $79.
• Week 4 - $6; $27; $73.
• Week 5 - $6; $33; $67.
• Week 6 - $6; $39; $61.
• Week 7 - $6; $45; $55.
• Week 8 - $5; $50; $50.
• Week 9 - $5; $55; $45.
• Week 10 - $5; $60; $40.
• Week 11 - $5; $65; $35.
• Week 12 - $4; $69; $31.
• Week 13 - $4; $73; $27.
• Week 14 - $4; $77; $23.
• Week 15 - $3; $80; $20.
• Week 16 - $3; $83; $17.
• Week 17 - $3; $86; $14.
• Week 18 - $3; $89; $11.
• Week 19 - $2; $91; $9.
• Week 20 - $2; $93; $7.
• Week 21 - $2; $95; $5.
• Week 22 - $1; $96; $4.
• Week 23 - $1; $97; $3.
• Week 24 - $1; $98; $2.
• Week 25 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 26 - $1; $100; $0.

I’ll post similar charts for a $1,000 FAAB later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa