The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

I recently concluded my wrap-up for the 2009 season, ranking the top Hitters and Pitchers for several widely used formats.  Just out of curiosity I checked my rankings for the 2008 season and compared them to the MVP and Cy Young award winners in both leagues.  The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings correctly predicted both MVPs (Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia) and the NL Cy Young (Tim Lincecum).  The only discrepancy was with the AL CY Young, where Cliff Lee, who was second in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, beat out Roy Halladay, who was first in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings.

Since the NL MVP race seems to be the only 2009 race with a clear winner, I thought it would be fun to use the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings to predict the results of several of the awards which are in doubt.  Here are my predictions:

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

AL MVP - Joe Mauer

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke

NL Rookie of the Year - Chris Coghlan

AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey

Actually, I cheated a bit - I assumed that the MVP awards would go to hitters.  If we allow pitchers to be eligible for the MVP, which technically they are, then according to the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, Zack Greinke should win the AL MVP too.  I’ll be shocked if that actually happens, but if it does, remember that you read it here first!

I’ll do a follow-up post after all the awards are announced to see how accurately the rankings predicted the award winners.

In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Phillies’ stats only (he ranked 47th based on 79.2 IP) and Jake Peavy’s Padres’ stats only (he ranked 59th based on 81.2 IP).

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 3) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

2. Javier Vazquez (30) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts

3. Chris Carpenter (190) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.25 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 IP, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.30 Sherpa Pts

4. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts

5. Adam Wainwright (10) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts

6. Josh Johnson (107) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 204.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 186 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 175 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 152 K, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

7. Matt Cain (22) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 212.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 178 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts

8. Jair Jurrjens (36) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 207 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 143 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 K, 1.35 Sherpa Pts

9. Wandy Rodriguez (69) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 199.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 190 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 151 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 K, 0.91 Sherpa Pts

10. Randy Wolf (105) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 209.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 157 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 135 K, 0.58 Sherpa Pts

Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wolf were complete surprises to me - they both pitched ~50 innings more than I’d projected for them, but of course that’s primarily a result of the fact they pitched much better than I expected. Chris Carpenter is the classic boom-or-bust pitcher coming off an injury.  Before you run out and stock up on pitchers coming back from injuries in 2010, think of Ben Sheets, who represents the flip side of that coin.  In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

16. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 2.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

59. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 81.2 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 K, 0.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.26 Sherpa Pts

37. Cole Hamels (4) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.97 Sherpa Pts

219. Brandon Webb (5) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

42. Rich Harden (7) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts

39. Roy Oswalt (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.23 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

60. Carlos Marmol (9) - CHC, RP

• Actual stats: 73 IP, 2 W, 15 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 91 K, 0.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 81 IP, 4 W, 25 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 107 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develope our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 3.37 Sherpa Pts

2. Cliff Lee (140) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.34 Sherpa Pts

3. Ervin Santana (105) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.61 Sherpa Pts

4. Mike Mussina (90) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 200.1 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 150 K, 2.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 146 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 105 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts

5. James Shields (9) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 2.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 217 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 193 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

6. Mariano Rivera (12) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.37 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.59 Sherpa Pts

7. Jon Lester (55) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 210.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 155 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 137 K, 1.24 Sherpa Pts

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 167.2 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154 K, 2.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 209 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 207 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

9. A.J. Burnett (20) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 221.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 164 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 K, 2.30 Sherpa Pts

10. John Danks (125) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 195 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 159 K, 2.13 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 154 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 135 K, 0.44 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

39. CC Sabathia (1) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 122.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 123 K, 1.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

63. Erik Bedard (3) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 81 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72 K, 0.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 195 K, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

30. Javier Vazquez (4) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 208.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200 K, 1.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 210 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 K, 2.77 Sherpa Pts

27. John Lackey (5) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 163.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 173 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 147 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts

32. Jered Weaver (6) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 152 K, 1.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 182 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 161 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

48. Justin Verlander (7) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 201 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 163 K, 1.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 199 K, 2.69 Sherpa Pts

17. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 174.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 K, 1.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 6) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.59 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 2.78 Sherpa Pts
2. CC Sabathia (4) - CLE/MIL, SP
   • Actual stats: 253 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.14 Sherpa Pts
3. Cliff Lee (298) - CLE, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.33 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.26 Sherpa Pts
4. Tim Lincecum (50) -SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.85 Sherpa Pts
5. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP
   • Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts
6. Cole Hamels (21) - PHI, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
7. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts
8. Dan Haren (8) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
9. Ervin Santana (249) - LAA, SP
   • Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.42 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Dempster (198) - ChC, SP
    • Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.59 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks, and the number of Pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere (i.e. - Lee, Ervin Santana, and Dempster). Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see John Smoltz and J.J. Putz below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

16. Roy Oswalt (5) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

188. John Smoltz (7) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

150. J.J. Putz (9) - SEA, RP

• Actual stats: 46.1 IP, 6 W, 15 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 56 K, 0.63 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 71 IP, 3 W, 33 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, 2.32 Sherpa Pts

14. Mariano Rivera (10) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.31 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in an AL-only format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.71 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.00 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.61 (3.85, 1st)
3. Justin Duchscherer - 3.04 (2.80, 6th)
4. Ervin Santana - 2.72 (2.09, 20th)
5. James Shields - 2.58 (2.90, 4th)
6. Joe Saunders - 2.55 (1.64, 35th)
7. Mariano Rivera - 2.37 (2.80, 5th)
8. Mike Mussina - 2.32 (2.05, 21st)
9. Josh Beckett - 2.20 (2.78, 7th)
10. Felix Hernandez - 2.16 (2.77, 8th)
11. Scott Kazmir - 2.16 (2.67, 9th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. Roy Halladay - 3.85 (Year-to-Date score = 3.61 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd)
2. John Lackey - 3.21 (1.97, 19th)
3. Cliff Lee - 3.00 (3.71, 1st)
4. James Shields - 2.90 (2.58, 5th)
5. Mariano Rivera - 2.80 (2.37, 7th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.80 (3.04, 3rd)
7. Josh Beckett - 2.78 (2.20, 9th)
8. Felix Hernandez - 2.77 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
9. Scott Kazmir - 2.67 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.63 (1.94, 20th)

John Lackey’s year-to-date results are obviously hampered by the fact that he didn’t pitch his first regular season game until May 14th. Still, with three bad outings in his last four starts, he may be a buy-low candidate today. I would also consider Daisuke Matsuzaka a buy-low candidate at this point in the season. On the flip side, three Pitchers I would be looking to sell high on if I owned them: (1) Ervin Santana, (2) Joe Saunders, and (3) Mike Mussina.
In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an NL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.60 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 2.48 Sherpa Points, which ranks 18th overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.45 (3.68, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.39 (3.59, 3rd)
4. CC Sabathia - 3.22 (3.69, 1st)
5. Brandon Webb - 2.94 (3.25, 5th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.93 (2.61, 13th)
7. Cole Hamels - 2.93 (2.96, 8th)
8. Tim Lincecum - 2.84 (2.44, 19th)
9. Ben Sheets - 2.67 (2.52, 17th)
10. Ervin Santana - 2.66 (2.03, 36th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. CC Sabathia - 3.69 (Year-to-Date score = 3.22 Sherpa Points, which ranks 4th)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.68 (3.45, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.59 (3.39, 3rd)
4. Johan Santana - 3.35 (2.32, 16th)
5. Brandon Webb - 3.25 (2.94, 5th)
6. Jake Peavy - 3.25 (2.16, 22nd)
7. John Lackey - 3.13 (1.88, 34th)
8. Cole Hamels - 2.96 (2.93, 7th)
9. Mariano Rivera - 2.83 (2.33, 15th)
10. James Shields - 2.69 (2.27, Tied for 17th)

As you would expect, there’s more of a difference between the Year-to-Date and Remainder-of-Season results for Pitchers than there is for Hitters. While hitting stats are somewhat team dependent (e.g. - RBI, Runs Scored), a Pitcher’s Wins are much more team dependent, which makes them more difficult to predict accurately.

In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an AL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In my previous post I ranked the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters for the first quarter of the season. In this post I’ll do the same for Pitchers. The Sherpa Point system gives each Pitcher a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Pitchers’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Brandon Webb leads the league with 9 Wins, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the Wins category; a Pitcher with 6 Wins gets a score of 0.67; a Hitter with 3 Wins gets a score of 0.33, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9).

The maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further delay, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Pitchers:

1. Cliff Lee 3.34 (Preseason Projection was 0.26)
2. Brandon Webb 3.03 (3.23)
3. Cole Hamels 2.92 (2.50)
4. Edinson Volquez 2.77 (0.13)
5. Shaun Marcum 2.66 (0.93)
6. Tim Lincecum 2.59 (1.85)
7. Ervin Santana 2.50 (0.42)
8. Ryan Dempster 2.48 (0.59)
9. Carlos Zambrano 2.36 (2.34)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.34 (2.13)

Yes, it’s early, but even at this stage in the season it’s obvious that my Preseason Projections for Cliff Lee (50 IP, 3 Wins, 4.68 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP) were just a bit off. The Innings Pitched projection is obviously the driver - based on his performance the last 3 years, I didn’t believe he’d stick in the Indians’ rotation this year. Live and learn!

Webb and Hamels were in my Preseason Top 10, while Zambrano (13th), Matsuzaka (29th), and Lincecum (41st) all made my Preseason Top 50. However, the other 5 Pitchers on this list can all safely be termed “surprises”; I’ll venture a guess that if you have 2 or more of them on your roster (entirely possible), you’re probably sitting near the top of your league’s pitching standings.

Many notable names are missing from this list: Johan Santana (2.17 vs. Preseason Projection of 4.00); Jake Peavy (2.13 vs. 3.62); C.C. Sabathia (0.76 vs. 3.14); Roy Oswalt (0.61 vs 2.93); John Smoltz (1.41 vs. 2.70); Dan Haren (2.24 vs. 2.62); Aaron Harang (1.96 vs. 2.53); Erik Bedard (1.30 vs. 2.47). Just in case you’re curious, Jonathan Papelbon (1.89 vs 2.27), who ranks 24th Year-to-Date is the highest-ranked Closer; J.J. Putz (0.49 vs 2.32) was the highest-rated Closer (15th) in my Preseason Projections.

There is still plenty of time left for the Cliff Lees and the Ryan Dempsters to regress towards their expected values, and there’s plenty of time left for the C.C. Sabathias and Roy Oswalts to pitch the way most experts expected them to. I’ll be updating these rankings and comparisons for both Hitters and Pitchers periodically throughout the season.

Of course, lists like these are all well and good, but they don’t answer the obvious follow-up question: what should you expect these Hitters and Pitchers to do for the rest of the season?

I’ll begin to answer that question in a series of posts beginning early next week.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In yesterday’s post I looked at several indicators that you can use to quickly evaluate whether a hitter’s unexpectedly hot/cold start warrants an early-season roster move. Today, I’ll do the same for a couple of pitchers.

We’ll use Cliff Lee as an example of a fast-starter and C.C. Sabathia (last night’s strong start not withstanding) as an example of a slow-starter.

Let’s look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate (per 9 Innings Pitched) = 9*(K/IP)
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio = K/BB
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) = (H-HR)/[(3*IP)+H-HR-K]

Let’s look at Cliff Lee first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (22 2/3 IP) = 7.94
   • 2007 (97 1/3 IP) = 6.10
   • 2006 (200 2/3 IP) = 5.79
   • 2005 (202 IP) = 6.37
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio
   • 2008 = 10.00
   • 2007 = 1.83
   • 2006 = 2.22
   • 2005 = 2.75
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
   • 2008 = .145
   • 2007 = .296
   • 2006 = .292
   • 2005 = .271

Lee’s 2008 K/9 rate is significantly higher than it was even in 2005, when he finished 4th in the American League Cy Young voting. What really jumps out is the high 2008 K/BB rate, which is unsustainable over the course of a season. Combine that with a healthy dose of luck (i.e. - a BAABIP which is roughly half of what you would expect from Lee over the course of a full season), and you have all the makings of the pitching equivalent of a supernova. If you currently own Lee, I would suggest sending out trade feelers to see if you can shore up weaknesses in other areas of your roster.

Now let’s look at Sabathia:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (24 IP) = 9.38
   • 2007 (241 IP) = 7.80
   • 2006 (192 2/3 IP) = 8.03
   • 2005 (196 2/3 IP) = 7.37
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio
   • 2008 = 1.56
   • 2007 = 5.65
   • 2006 = 3.91
   • 2005 = 2.60
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
   • 2008 = .397
   • 2007 = .297
   • 2006 = .289
   • 2005 = .279

I’ve read a number of fantasy sportswriters who’ve expressed the opinion that Sabathia’s heavy workload from the past is finally catching up with him. Others point to Sabathia’s girth as the source of his troubles. Some even question whether he can handle the pressure of pitching with a potentially huge free agent contract waiting at the end of the season. While all of these concerns sound good in theory, I believe they are all much ado about nothing. In fact, I wish the people writing this drivel were playing in one of my leagues so that I could offer them a trade for Sabathia (Cliff Lee, anyone?).

Like Lee, Sabathia’s strikeout rate this season is higher than it has been the last three years, which suggests that it will come down. However, unlike Lee, Sabathia’s long-term strikeout rate is still somewhat better than the league average. The key to Sabathia’s early-season struggles is the low strikeout to walk ratio, which is the result of a much higher than expected walk rate. You can speculate all you want as to the cause of the higher walk rate (e.g. - trying too hard to strike people out, doesn’t have a good feel for his pitches in the cool weather, etc.), but I will still give much more weight to his results of his last three years of work rather than the results of his first five starts this season. Finally, Sabathia’s BAABIP is almost 100 points higher than it is likely to be at the end of a full season, which also suggests that he’s had a run of “bad luck” on balls put in play against him.

While the results for the four players I’ve analyzed over the last two days may be of particular interest to you (feel free to remind me at the end of the season if I’m wrong about any of them), my primary goal in performing this analysis is to give you a set of indicators that can be applied to any player you’re interested in to compare their 2008 season-to-date results with their historical results. Hopefully, by doing so you’ll be able to differentiate between the real deals from the fantasy fakeouts.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

It’s just over 3 weeks into the 26-week baseball season, and some fantasy baseball owners are already hitting the panic button.

Which of the following moves, if any, would you make at this point in the season if you were playing in a mixed league that uses the standard 5 hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and 5 pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)?

• Drop Jose Guillen for Gabe Kapler
• Drop Edwin Encarnacion for Fred Lewis
• Drop Carlos Delgado for Nelson Figueroa
• Drop Francisco Liriano for Vicente Padilla

Amazingly, one owner in a 12-team league I play in has made all of those moves within the last week or so. I’ve never met him (we have an on-line draft), but I’d bet that he’s a Type A personality. He’s currently in 5th place in our league, but my guess is that he won’t be staying there for long if the above transactions are indicative of the way he’ll be managing his team this season. Vulture that I am, I swooped in and grabbed both Encarnacion (dropping Franklin Gutierrez) and Liriano (dropping Andy Sonnanstine) mere nanoseconds after I noticed their names on our league’s free agent list.

So, how should you evaluate a player’s unexpectedly hot/cold start in deciding whether to make a roster move? Let’s look at hitters first.

For hitters we’ll use Nate McLouth as an example of a fast-starter and David Ortiz as an example of a slow-starter. We’ll look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate = K/AB
2. Walk rate = BB/AB
3. Batting average on balls in play (aka BABIP) = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)

Let’s look at McLouth first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (80 AB) = 12.5%
   • 2007 (329 AB) = 23.4%
   • 2006 (270 AB) = 21.9%
   • 2005 (109 AB) = 18.3%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 11.3%
   • 2007 = 11.9%
   • 2006 = 6.7%
   • 2005 = 2.8%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .403
   • 2007 = .301
   • 2006 = .275
   • 2005 = .274

It appears that McLouth is developing more patience at that plate as his career progresses. His increased willingness to take a walk suggests that pitchers realize they now have to throw strikes to get him out. His keys to future success: can he maintain his lower strikeout rate (unlikely) and high BABIP (even more unlikely) over the course of a full season? If you own McLouth, I’d suggest seeing what other owners in your league might be willing to part with in a trade in exchange for McLouth. If you have the opportunity to address several shortcomings on your current roster by trading McLouth, I’d do it.

Now let’s look at Ortiz:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (79 AB) = 20.3%
   • 2007 (549 AB) = 18.8%
   • 2006 (558 AB) = 21.0%
   • 2005 (601 AB) = 20.6%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 13.9%
   • 2007 = 20.2%
   • 2006 = 21.3%
   • 2005 = 17.0%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .197
   • 2007 = .358
   • 2006 = .274
   • 2005 = .309

Ortiz’ lower walk rate this season suggests that he is swinging at a few more bad pitches than usual. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his historical averages, which suggests that he is putting more balls in play rather than striking out more. His keys to future success: can he increase his walk rate so that it’s in line with his historical rates (likely)? Will his luck improve on balls that he puts in play, resulting in a higher BABIP (even more likely)? If you own Ortiz, hang on - he’ll be fine; in fact, I’d be shocked if he finishes the season with a batting average lower than .280. Conversely, if you don’t currently own Ortiz, send out a trade feeler to his current owner and see whether you might be able to pry him loose for something less than full value.

I’ll perform a similar analysis on a pair of pitchers (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa