The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

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This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Phillies’ stats only (he ranked 47th based on 79.2 IP) and Jake Peavy’s Padres’ stats only (he ranked 59th based on 81.2 IP).

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 3) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

2. Javier Vazquez (30) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts

3. Chris Carpenter (190) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.25 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 IP, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.30 Sherpa Pts

4. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts

5. Adam Wainwright (10) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts

6. Josh Johnson (107) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 204.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 186 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 175 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 152 K, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

7. Matt Cain (22) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 212.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 178 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts

8. Jair Jurrjens (36) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 207 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 143 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 K, 1.35 Sherpa Pts

9. Wandy Rodriguez (69) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 199.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 190 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 151 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 K, 0.91 Sherpa Pts

10. Randy Wolf (105) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 209.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 157 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 135 K, 0.58 Sherpa Pts

Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wolf were complete surprises to me - they both pitched ~50 innings more than I’d projected for them, but of course that’s primarily a result of the fact they pitched much better than I expected. Chris Carpenter is the classic boom-or-bust pitcher coming off an injury.  Before you run out and stock up on pitchers coming back from injuries in 2010, think of Ben Sheets, who represents the flip side of that coin.  In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

16. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 2.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

59. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 81.2 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 K, 0.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.26 Sherpa Pts

37. Cole Hamels (4) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.97 Sherpa Pts

219. Brandon Webb (5) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

42. Rich Harden (7) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts

39. Roy Oswalt (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.23 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

60. Carlos Marmol (9) - CHC, RP

• Actual stats: 73 IP, 2 W, 15 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 91 K, 0.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 81 IP, 4 W, 25 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 107 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develope our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 37) - KC, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Tim Lincecum (4) - SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
3. Javier Vazquez (45) - ATL, SP
   • Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts
4. Felix Hernandez (50) -SEA, SP
   • Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
5. Dan Haren (7) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
6. Roy Halladay (3) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
7. Chris Carpenter (285) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.35 Sherpa Pts
8. Adam Wainwright (13) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
9. CC Sabathia (2) - NYY, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.68 Sherpa Pts
10. Justin Verlander (73) - DET, SP
    • Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

As was the case last year, the most interesting observation from my perspective is the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

27. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 1.92 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.72 Sherpa Pts

63. Jake Peavy (5) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 101.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

402. Brandon Webb (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

65. Cole Hamels (9) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.71 Sherpa Pts

74. Rich Harden (9) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.22 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts

69. Roy Oswalt (10) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.53 Sherpa Pts

We’ll soon be starting work here in Sherpaville on our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Rich Harden, SP, ChC (2.13 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.66 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.47)
2. Cole Hamels, SP, Phi (2.27 - 1.03 = +1.24)
3. Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou (1.93 - 0.78 =+1.15)
4. Johan Santana, SP, NYM (3.40 - 2.32 = +1.08)
5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (1.48 - 0.46 = +1.02)
6. Jose Valverde, RP, Hou (1.52 - 0.56 = +0.96)
7. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Fla (0.52 - -0.26 = +0.78)
8. Carlos Zambrano, SP, ChC (1.99 - 1.24 = +0.75)
9. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF (3.27 - 2.56 = +0.71)
10. Ryan Dempster, SP, ChC (1.92 - 1.28 = +0.64)

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Zach Duke, SP, Pit (0.84 - 1.88 = -1.04)
2. Jason Marquis, SP, Col (0.75 - 1.55 = -0.80)
3. Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD (1.91 - 2.61 = -0.70)
4. Livan Hernandez, SP, NYM (0.20 - 0.88 = -0.68)
5. Jeff Weaver, SP, LAD (0.01 - 0.60 = -0.59)
6. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin (1.66 - 2.24 = -0.58)
7. Randy Wells, SP, ChC (0.43 - 1.00 = -0.57)
8. Chris Volstad, SP, Fla (0.51 - 1.02 = -0.51)
9. Brian Wilson, RP, SF (1.34 - 1.83 = -0.49)
10. Russ Ortiz, SP, Hou (0.06 - 0.55 = -0.49)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at AL Hitters in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.73 Sherpa Pts

2. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts

3. Cole Hamels (7) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 3.01 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 IP, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

4. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts

5. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Dempster (106) - ChC, SP

• Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.64 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.53 Sherpa Pts

7. Ricky Nolasco (N/A - didn’t even have him in my preseason database!) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 212.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 186 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: N/A

8. CC Sabathia (1 in A.L.) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 130.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 128 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Derek Lowe (16) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 211 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 147 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 207 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 138 K, 2.00 Sherpa Pts

10. Ben Sheets (28) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 198.1 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 137 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 121 K, 1.58 Sherpa Pts

Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

12. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

11. Roy Oswalt (4) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

99. John Smoltz (5) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

98. Aaron Harang (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 184.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153 K, 0.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 222 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

60. Chris Young (9) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 102.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K, 0.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

132. Rafael Soriano (10) - ATL, RP

• Actual stats: 14 IP, 0 W, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16 K, 0.24 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 34 SV, 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 76 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 6) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.59 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 2.78 Sherpa Pts
2. CC Sabathia (4) - CLE/MIL, SP
   • Actual stats: 253 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.14 Sherpa Pts
3. Cliff Lee (298) - CLE, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.33 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.26 Sherpa Pts
4. Tim Lincecum (50) -SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.85 Sherpa Pts
5. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP
   • Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts
6. Cole Hamels (21) - PHI, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
7. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts
8. Dan Haren (8) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
9. Ervin Santana (249) - LAA, SP
   • Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.42 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Dempster (198) - ChC, SP
    • Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.59 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks, and the number of Pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere (i.e. - Lee, Ervin Santana, and Dempster). Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see John Smoltz and J.J. Putz below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

16. Roy Oswalt (5) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

188. John Smoltz (7) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

150. J.J. Putz (9) - SEA, RP

• Actual stats: 46.1 IP, 6 W, 15 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 56 K, 0.63 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 71 IP, 3 W, 33 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, 2.32 Sherpa Pts

14. Mariano Rivera (10) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.31 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.60 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 2.48 Sherpa Points, which ranks 18th overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.45 (3.68, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.39 (3.59, 3rd)
4. CC Sabathia - 3.22 (3.69, 1st)
5. Brandon Webb - 2.94 (3.25, 5th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.93 (2.61, 13th)
7. Cole Hamels - 2.93 (2.96, 8th)
8. Tim Lincecum - 2.84 (2.44, 19th)
9. Ben Sheets - 2.67 (2.52, 17th)
10. Ervin Santana - 2.66 (2.03, 36th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. CC Sabathia - 3.69 (Year-to-Date score = 3.22 Sherpa Points, which ranks 4th)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.68 (3.45, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.59 (3.39, 3rd)
4. Johan Santana - 3.35 (2.32, 16th)
5. Brandon Webb - 3.25 (2.94, 5th)
6. Jake Peavy - 3.25 (2.16, 22nd)
7. John Lackey - 3.13 (1.88, 34th)
8. Cole Hamels - 2.96 (2.93, 7th)
9. Mariano Rivera - 2.83 (2.33, 15th)
10. James Shields - 2.69 (2.27, Tied for 17th)

As you would expect, there’s more of a difference between the Year-to-Date and Remainder-of-Season results for Pitchers than there is for Hitters. While hitting stats are somewhat team dependent (e.g. - RBI, Runs Scored), a Pitcher’s Wins are much more team dependent, which makes them more difficult to predict accurately.

In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an AL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In my previous post I ranked the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters for the first quarter of the season. In this post I’ll do the same for Pitchers. The Sherpa Point system gives each Pitcher a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Pitchers’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Brandon Webb leads the league with 9 Wins, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the Wins category; a Pitcher with 6 Wins gets a score of 0.67; a Hitter with 3 Wins gets a score of 0.33, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9).

The maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further delay, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Pitchers:

1. Cliff Lee 3.34 (Preseason Projection was 0.26)
2. Brandon Webb 3.03 (3.23)
3. Cole Hamels 2.92 (2.50)
4. Edinson Volquez 2.77 (0.13)
5. Shaun Marcum 2.66 (0.93)
6. Tim Lincecum 2.59 (1.85)
7. Ervin Santana 2.50 (0.42)
8. Ryan Dempster 2.48 (0.59)
9. Carlos Zambrano 2.36 (2.34)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.34 (2.13)

Yes, it’s early, but even at this stage in the season it’s obvious that my Preseason Projections for Cliff Lee (50 IP, 3 Wins, 4.68 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP) were just a bit off. The Innings Pitched projection is obviously the driver - based on his performance the last 3 years, I didn’t believe he’d stick in the Indians’ rotation this year. Live and learn!

Webb and Hamels were in my Preseason Top 10, while Zambrano (13th), Matsuzaka (29th), and Lincecum (41st) all made my Preseason Top 50. However, the other 5 Pitchers on this list can all safely be termed “surprises”; I’ll venture a guess that if you have 2 or more of them on your roster (entirely possible), you’re probably sitting near the top of your league’s pitching standings.

Many notable names are missing from this list: Johan Santana (2.17 vs. Preseason Projection of 4.00); Jake Peavy (2.13 vs. 3.62); C.C. Sabathia (0.76 vs. 3.14); Roy Oswalt (0.61 vs 2.93); John Smoltz (1.41 vs. 2.70); Dan Haren (2.24 vs. 2.62); Aaron Harang (1.96 vs. 2.53); Erik Bedard (1.30 vs. 2.47). Just in case you’re curious, Jonathan Papelbon (1.89 vs 2.27), who ranks 24th Year-to-Date is the highest-ranked Closer; J.J. Putz (0.49 vs 2.32) was the highest-rated Closer (15th) in my Preseason Projections.

There is still plenty of time left for the Cliff Lees and the Ryan Dempsters to regress towards their expected values, and there’s plenty of time left for the C.C. Sabathias and Roy Oswalts to pitch the way most experts expected them to. I’ll be updating these rankings and comparisons for both Hitters and Pitchers periodically throughout the season.

Of course, lists like these are all well and good, but they don’t answer the obvious follow-up question: what should you expect these Hitters and Pitchers to do for the rest of the season?

I’ll begin to answer that question in a series of posts beginning early next week.

Until then,

The Sherpa