The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 American League Pitchers who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. John Lackey, SP, LAA (1.74 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.00 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.74)
2. CC Sabathia, SP, NYY (3.20 - 1.86 = +1.34)
3. Joakim Soria, RP, KC (2.08 - 0.83 =+1.25)
4. Ervin Santana, SP, LAA (0.70 - -0.42 = +1.12)
5. Scott Kazmir, SP, TB (0.45 - -0.45 = +0.90)
6. Rich Hill, SP, Bal (1.15 - 0.29 = +0.86)
7. Francisco Liriano, SP, Min (0.83 - 0.02 = +0.81)
8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Bos (2.31 - 1.51 = +0.80)
9. Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY (2.21 - 1.43 = +0.78)
10. Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY (1.59 - 0.86 = +0.73)

Here are 10 American League Pitchers who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Edwin Jackson, SP, Det (1.21 - 2.50 = -1.29)
2. Kevin Millwood, SP, Tex (1.38 - 2.30 = -0.92)
3. Justin Verlander, SP, Det (2.00 - 2.58 = -0.58)
4. Scott Richmond, SP, Tor (0.80 - 1.36 = -0.56)
5. Jason Vargas, SP, Sea (0.32 - 0.88 = -0.56)
6. Drew Bailey, RP, Oak (1.35 - 1.90 = -0.55)
7. David Aardsma, RP, Sea (1.26 - 1.79 = -0.53)
8. J.P. Howell, RP, TB (0.79 - 1.30 = -0.51)
9. Scott Feldman, SP, Tex (0.61 - 1.12 = -0.51)
10. Josh Outman, SP, Oak (0.87 - 1.34 = -0.47)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at NL Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter