The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 100 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 80 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 107 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 89 K, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 3.29 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
6. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 283 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .314 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
7. Bobby Abreu (LAA, OF) - 279 AB, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 15 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 269 AB, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG, 45 R, 2.96 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 305 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 SB, .344 AVG, 43 R, 2.93 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 257 AB, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB, .276 AVG, 44 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points
11. Derek Jeter (NYY, SS) - 311 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB, .315 AVG, 50 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Red Sox’ stats (he ranked 43rd overall based on 365 At-Bats) and Mark Teixeira’s Angels’ stats (he ranked 64th based on 193 At-Bats)

1. Dustin Pedroia (Preseason rank was 45) - BOS, 2B

• Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 3.50 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.97 Sherpa Pts

2. Josh Hamilton (60) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 3.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.81 Sherpa Pts

3. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 4.01 Sherpa Pts

4. Grady Sizemore (11) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 634 AB, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 SB, .268 AVG, 101 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 629 AB, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 27 SB, .285 AVG, 121 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

5. Aubrey Huff (69) - BAL, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 580 AB, 21 HR, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.75 Sherpa Pts

6. Kevin Youkilis (39) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 3 SB, .312 AVG, 91 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 96 R, 2.08 Sherpa Pts

7. Miguel Cabrera (3) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.51 Sherpa Pts

8. Bobby Abreu (7) - NYY, OF

• Actual stats: 609 AB, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB, .296 AVG, 100 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 18 HR, 106 RBI, 28 SB, .287 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts

9. Ichiro Suzuki (6) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 686 AB, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 43 SB, .310 AVG, 103 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 665 AB, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 37 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts

10. Justin Morneau (25) - MIN, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG, 97 R, 2.96 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 599 AB, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG, 88 R, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list, including Pedroia, Huff, and Youkilis. I didn’t think Josh Hamilton could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be a top fantasy producer, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results. Using this indicator, I have little doubt Alex Rodriguez would have been at the top of the list had he not missed almost a month due to injury (only the second time in 13 seasons as a full-time big-leaguer that he’d missed a significant number of games).

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

65. David Ortiz (2) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

71. Carl Crawford (4) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

16. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

28. Derek Jeter (8) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 596 AB, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .300 AVG, 88 R, 2.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 651 AB, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 20 SB, .315 AVG, 109 R, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

101. Howie Kendrick (9) - LAA, 2B

• Actual stats: 340 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB, .306 AVG, 43 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 15 HR, 92 RBI, 16 SB, .314 AVG, 103 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

37. Delmon Young (10) - MIN, OF

• Actual stats: 575 AB, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG, 80 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 670 AB, 21 HR, 93 RBI, 21 SB, .296 AVG, 102 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa