The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

I recently concluded my wrap-up for the 2009 season, ranking the top Hitters and Pitchers for several widely used formats.  Just out of curiosity I checked my rankings for the 2008 season and compared them to the MVP and Cy Young award winners in both leagues.  The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings correctly predicted both MVPs (Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia) and the NL Cy Young (Tim Lincecum).  The only discrepancy was with the AL CY Young, where Cliff Lee, who was second in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, beat out Roy Halladay, who was first in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings.

Since the NL MVP race seems to be the only 2009 race with a clear winner, I thought it would be fun to use the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings to predict the results of several of the awards which are in doubt.  Here are my predictions:

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

AL MVP - Joe Mauer

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke

NL Rookie of the Year - Chris Coghlan

AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey

Actually, I cheated a bit - I assumed that the MVP awards would go to hitters.  If we allow pitchers to be eligible for the MVP, which technically they are, then according to the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, Zack Greinke should win the AL MVP too.  I’ll be shocked if that actually happens, but if it does, remember that you read it here first!

I’ll do a follow-up post after all the awards are announced to see how accurately the rankings predicted the award winners.

In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Red Sox’ stats (he ranked 43rd overall based on 365 At-Bats) and Mark Teixeira’s Angels’ stats (he ranked 64th based on 193 At-Bats)

1. Dustin Pedroia (Preseason rank was 45) - BOS, 2B

• Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 3.50 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.97 Sherpa Pts

2. Josh Hamilton (60) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 3.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.81 Sherpa Pts

3. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 4.01 Sherpa Pts

4. Grady Sizemore (11) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 634 AB, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 SB, .268 AVG, 101 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 629 AB, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 27 SB, .285 AVG, 121 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

5. Aubrey Huff (69) - BAL, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 580 AB, 21 HR, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.75 Sherpa Pts

6. Kevin Youkilis (39) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 3 SB, .312 AVG, 91 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 96 R, 2.08 Sherpa Pts

7. Miguel Cabrera (3) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.51 Sherpa Pts

8. Bobby Abreu (7) - NYY, OF

• Actual stats: 609 AB, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB, .296 AVG, 100 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 18 HR, 106 RBI, 28 SB, .287 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts

9. Ichiro Suzuki (6) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 686 AB, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 43 SB, .310 AVG, 103 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 665 AB, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 37 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts

10. Justin Morneau (25) - MIN, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG, 97 R, 2.96 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 599 AB, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG, 88 R, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list, including Pedroia, Huff, and Youkilis. I didn’t think Josh Hamilton could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be a top fantasy producer, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results. Using this indicator, I have little doubt Alex Rodriguez would have been at the top of the list had he not missed almost a month due to injury (only the second time in 13 seasons as a full-time big-leaguer that he’d missed a significant number of games).

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

65. David Ortiz (2) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

71. Carl Crawford (4) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

16. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

28. Derek Jeter (8) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 596 AB, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .300 AVG, 88 R, 2.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 651 AB, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 20 SB, .315 AVG, 109 R, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

101. Howie Kendrick (9) - LAA, 2B

• Actual stats: 340 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB, .306 AVG, 43 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 15 HR, 92 RBI, 16 SB, .314 AVG, 103 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

37. Delmon Young (10) - MIN, OF

• Actual stats: 575 AB, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG, 80 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 670 AB, 21 HR, 93 RBI, 21 SB, .296 AVG, 102 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 7) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
2. Manny Ramirez (38) - LAD/BOS, OF
   • Actual stats: 552 AB, 37 HR, 121 RBI, 3 SB, .332 AVG, 102 R, 3.22 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 499 AB, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 0 SB, .303 AVG, 91 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts
3. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B
   • Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.16 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
4. Hanley Ramirez (4) -FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts
5. Lance Berkman (20) - HOU, 1B/OF
   • Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
6. Matt Holliday (2) - COL, OF
   • Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.56 Sherpa Pts
7. Dustin Pedroia (93) - BOS, 2B
   • Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.95 Sherpa Pts
8. Josh Hamilton (129) - TEX, OF
   • Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.74 Sherpa Pts
9. Jose Reyes (13) - NYM, SS
   • Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 2.97 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
10. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B
    • Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 3.84 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting SB and AVG vs. projecting the other hitting categories. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Alex Rodriguez), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Dustin Pedroia). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

95. David Ortiz (3) - BOS, Util

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

19. Miguel Cabrera (6) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

13. Chase Utley (8) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.22 Sherpa Pts

108. Carl Crawford (9) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

36. Vladimir Guerrero (10) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard AL-only league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Ian Kinsler - 3.82 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.65 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Josh Hamilton - 3.34 (3.00, 9th)
3. Alex Rodriguez - 3.19 (4.35, 1st)
4. Grady Sizemore - 3.06 (3.22, 3rd)
5. Jermaine Dye - 2.98 (2.95, 11th)
6. Carlos Quentin - 2.90 (2.90, 12th)
7. Justin Morneau - 2.80 (3.07, 6th)
8. Dustin Pedroia - 2.76 (2.62, 25th)
9. Kevin Youkilis - 2.70 (2.63, 24th)
10. Ichiro Suzuki - 2.58 (3.08, 5th)

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 4.35 (Year-to-Date score = 3.19 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.65 (3.82, 1st)
3. Grady Sizemore - 3.22 (3.06, 4th)
4. Manny Ramirez - 3.16 (2.56, 11th)
5. Ichiro Suzuki - 3.08 (2.58, 10th)
6. Justin Morneau - 3.07 (2.80, 7th)
7. Miguel Cabrera - 3.00 (2.33, 18th)
8. Magglio Ordonez - 3.00 (2.35, 17th)
9. Josh Hamilton - 3.00 (3.34, 2nd)
10. Carl Crawford - 2.97 (2.17, 26th)

With fantasy league trading deadlines rapidly approaching, these lists can serve as a guide to potential sell high and buy low candidates. For example, if you currently own Josh Hamilton, and the Alex Rodriguez owner in your league is willing to trade A-Rod in a one-for-one deal for Hamilton, I’d do it in a heartbeat!

The other “sell high” candidates that jump out from the lists above are Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. If you’re looking for a “buy low” candidate, Carl Crawford is definitely a player worth pursuing for the home stretch.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 AL-only Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa