The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Today’s trade between the Blue Jays and Rangers, in which the Blue Jays sent Mike Napoli to Texas in exchange for Frank Francisco doesn’t make sense to me.  I realize that Napoli should be an upgrade over the Yorvit Torrealba/Matt Treanor combination (at least offensively), and Frank Francisco is a potential closer candidate for the Jays.

However, having Napoli gave the Jays insurance in case either J.P. Arencibia doesn’t work out as an everyday catcher or Adam Lind doesn’t work out as an everyday first baseman.  Having Francisco gave the Rangers another closer candidate in the event that Neftali Feliz’ transition from closer to the rotation is successful.

Now, the Jays are stuck with Jose Molina as a fallback if Arencibia doesn’t work out and no clear fallback at first if Lind doesn’t work out (Edwin Encarnacion?).  Francisco is a nice add to the bullpen, but the Jays already had Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch as closer candidates in the likely event that Octavio Dotel proves to be ineffective in that role.  Texas has one less closer candidate to compete with Alexi Ogando and perhaps Tanner Scheppers.

Perhaps this trade will work out well for both teams, but right now I’m just not seeing it.

The Sherpa

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It’s just over 3 weeks into the 26-week baseball season, and some fantasy baseball owners are already hitting the panic button.

Which of the following moves, if any, would you make at this point in the season if you were playing in a mixed league that uses the standard 5 hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and 5 pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)?

• Drop Jose Guillen for Gabe Kapler
• Drop Edwin Encarnacion for Fred Lewis
• Drop Carlos Delgado for Nelson Figueroa
• Drop Francisco Liriano for Vicente Padilla

Amazingly, one owner in a 12-team league I play in has made all of those moves within the last week or so. I’ve never met him (we have an on-line draft), but I’d bet that he’s a Type A personality. He’s currently in 5th place in our league, but my guess is that he won’t be staying there for long if the above transactions are indicative of the way he’ll be managing his team this season. Vulture that I am, I swooped in and grabbed both Encarnacion (dropping Franklin Gutierrez) and Liriano (dropping Andy Sonnanstine) mere nanoseconds after I noticed their names on our league’s free agent list.

So, how should you evaluate a player’s unexpectedly hot/cold start in deciding whether to make a roster move? Let’s look at hitters first.

For hitters we’ll use Nate McLouth as an example of a fast-starter and David Ortiz as an example of a slow-starter. We’ll look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate = K/AB
2. Walk rate = BB/AB
3. Batting average on balls in play (aka BABIP) = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)

Let’s look at McLouth first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (80 AB) = 12.5%
   • 2007 (329 AB) = 23.4%
   • 2006 (270 AB) = 21.9%
   • 2005 (109 AB) = 18.3%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 11.3%
   • 2007 = 11.9%
   • 2006 = 6.7%
   • 2005 = 2.8%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .403
   • 2007 = .301
   • 2006 = .275
   • 2005 = .274

It appears that McLouth is developing more patience at that plate as his career progresses. His increased willingness to take a walk suggests that pitchers realize they now have to throw strikes to get him out. His keys to future success: can he maintain his lower strikeout rate (unlikely) and high BABIP (even more unlikely) over the course of a full season? If you own McLouth, I’d suggest seeing what other owners in your league might be willing to part with in a trade in exchange for McLouth. If you have the opportunity to address several shortcomings on your current roster by trading McLouth, I’d do it.

Now let’s look at Ortiz:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (79 AB) = 20.3%
   • 2007 (549 AB) = 18.8%
   • 2006 (558 AB) = 21.0%
   • 2005 (601 AB) = 20.6%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 13.9%
   • 2007 = 20.2%
   • 2006 = 21.3%
   • 2005 = 17.0%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .197
   • 2007 = .358
   • 2006 = .274
   • 2005 = .309

Ortiz’ lower walk rate this season suggests that he is swinging at a few more bad pitches than usual. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his historical averages, which suggests that he is putting more balls in play rather than striking out more. His keys to future success: can he increase his walk rate so that it’s in line with his historical rates (likely)? Will his luck improve on balls that he puts in play, resulting in a higher BABIP (even more likely)? If you own Ortiz, hang on - he’ll be fine; in fact, I’d be shocked if he finishes the season with a batting average lower than .280. Conversely, if you don’t currently own Ortiz, send out a trade feeler to his current owner and see whether you might be able to pry him loose for something less than full value.

I’ll perform a similar analysis on a pair of pitchers (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa