Posts Tagged ‘Eric Mack’

Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: Mixed League (Mon 3/30/09)

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Hi everyone,

Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 17 participants for 2009:

  1. Andy Behrens - Yahoo.com
  2. Will Carroll - BaseballProspectus.com
  3. Alex Cushing - mlb.com
  4. Doug Dennis -BaseballHQ.com
  5. David Gonos - OpenSports.com
  6. John Hoyos - rotojunkie.com
  7. Eric Karabell - ESPN.com
  8. J.P. Kastner - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  9. Chris Liss - Rotowire.com
  10. Eric Mack - CBSSPORTS.com
  11. Alex Patton - pattonandco.com
  12. Paul Petera - BaseballHQ.com
  13. Jason Pliml - MockDraftCentral.com
  14. Brendan Roberts - ESPN.com
  15. Michael Salfino - SNY.tv
  16. Larry Schechter - SandlotShrink.com
  17. Perry Van Hook - FantasyBaseball.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Behrens

6,720

.280

244

1,042

126

1,063

Carroll

5,129

.286

180

785

70

776

Cushing

6,290

.281

214

895

165

971

Dennis

7,293

.280

277

1,104

150

1,118

Gonos

6,526

.276

259

1,027

97

1,069

Hoyos

6,983

.280

205

975

223

1,046

Karabell

7,492

.272

294

1,127

161

1,177

Kastner

7,324

.279

227

999

165

1,111

Liss

6,053

.279

231

887

123

917

Mack

7,009

.273

281

1,062

123

1,073

Patton

6,393

.278

244

924

206

1,024

Petera

6,668

.273

262

961

144

978

Pliml

6,908

.292

210

945

204

1,054

Roberts

6,691

.277

248

1,007

90

986

Salfino

6,905

.274

276

1,049

139

1,076

Schechter

7,404

.283

245

1,058

172

1,144

Van Hook

7,400

.284

256

1,067

171

1,059

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Behrens

1,211

69

66

4.11

1.22

1,132

Carroll

1,376

86

41

3.94

1.22

1,207

Cushing

1,261

75

32

4.50

1.35

1,099

Dennis

934

56

20

5.12

1.27

820

Gonos

1,251

80

64

3.91

1.24

1,170

Hoyos

1,185

69

53

4.25

1.28

1,009

Karabell

1,333

75

58

4.40

1.28

1,158

Kastner

1,452

87

54

4.22

1.27

1,219

Liss

1,228

74

95

4.03

1.23

1,096

Mack

1,375

84

72

4.27

1.28

1,274

Patton

720

39

84

4.26

1.24

560

Petera

1,191

74

53

3.96

1.28

1,019

Pliml

1,032

57

27

4.27

1.28

891

Roberts

1,313

77

40

3.93

1.24

1,193

Salfino

1,270

75

43

4.22

1.35

1,034

Schechter

1,335

81

81

4.16

1.29

1,063

Van Hook

1,032

57

45

3.95

1.24

809

 

 

Projected Standings


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Schechter

66

52

118

Van Hook

63

54.5

117.5

Behrens

46.5

52.5

99

Gonos

41

58

99

Karabell

62

34

96

Kastner

46.5

47

93.5

Dennis

65

28

93

Patton

40.5

52

92.5

Mack

49.5

39

88.5

Salfino

50

38

88

Hoyos

44

41

85

Liss

23.5

60.5

84

Petera

44

41

85

Roberts

32

49

81

Pliml

48

30.5

78.5

Carroll

20

56

76

Cushing

34.5

24

58.5

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com