Draft Strategy Q & A with The Sherpa (2/26/08)
Tuesday, February 26th, 2008Last night I took part in an experts’ draft hosted by Mock Draft Central.com (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_3.jsp)
Viewers were able to send in questions during the draft - here are some of the more interesting strategy-related questions we were asked, followed by my answers:
1. How early is too early to draft a Pitcher, even one as dominant as Johan Santana?
It all depends on the specific characteristics of your particular league. In the 5×5 mixed league, 12-team, 14 Hitter/9 Pitcher format we were using last night, I would rank Johan Santana third overall. Most experts (and many non-experts!) will tell you that Pitchers should never be drafted in the first few rounds - obviously, I strongly disagree. It all comes down to quantifying Position Scarcity - how much of a drop-off is there at Starting Pitcher after Santana vs. how much of a drop-off is there after the top-rated players at other positions? While some of the anti-Starting Pitcher sentiment can be attributed to Pitchers’ predictability/consistency vs. Hitters’ predictability/consistency, I believe most of this bias is due to the fact that many people have a hard time quantifying the impact of a Pitcher on his fantasy team’s average-based Pitching categories (i.e. - ERA, WHIP).
2. Do you prefer auctions or snake drafts?
They’re both challenging (for different reasons), but I think auctions are more fun and give fantasy team managers a better taste for what it’s like to run a major league team with budgetary constraints. The major difference is that there’s a far greater degree of gamesmanship with auctions than there is with a snake draft - many people like that element and swear by the auction format; some people don’t and are happy to stick with snake drafts.
3. What’s the thinnest position this year?
Catcher, especially if you’re in a league that requires you to start two of them. The answer can also depend on your league’s format. For example, if you’re playing in an AL-only league, there’s surprisingly few top performers at First Base this year - of course, this depends in part too whether Designated Hitter types like David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, et. al., are also eligible at First Base in your league.
4. How will the Mitchell Report affect your player rankings this year?
Since it’s impossible to know which players not named in the Mitchell Report may have also been the subject of chemical experiments, I’m not including a “Mitchell Factor” in my player projections and rankings this year. However, if a player started/stopped using performance enhancing drugs that were actually affecting his results during the experience period I look at, then his “tainted” results may well be influencing my 2008 projections.
5. You haven’t drafted any Outfielders through the first 5 rounds - why not?
Position scarcity - there is much less of a drop-off after the top-rated Outfielders than there is after the top-rated players at most other positions. I didn’t take my first Outfielder until the 10th round, but was still able to put together a slate that consisted of Johnny Damon (10th round), Pat Burrell (12th round), Raul Ibanez (14th round), Jose Guillen (18th round), and Mark Teahen (23rd round). By waiting to draft Outfielders I was able to select players I had rated among the top at positions such as Shortstop (Hanley Ramirez - Round 1), Catcher (Victor Martinez - Round 2), and Second Base (Howie Kendrick - Round 8).
6. Is it worth taking Middle Relievers late in a draft?
With the standard caveat (”it depends on the particular characteristics of your league”), generally, I would say “yes”. However, I would target Middle Relievers who pitch for decent teams, have a high strikeout rate, and pitch in front of Closers who stand a decent chance of being replaced/injured at some point during the season. For 2008 I believe that list includes Cleveland’s Rafael Betancourt, San Diego’s Heath Bell, Minnesota’s Pat Neshek, and Colorado’s Brian Fuentes. If Detroit’s Joel Zumaya were healthy, he would definitely be on my list too. Even guys like Anaheim’s Scot Shields, Boston’s Manny Delcarmen, and Milwaukee’s Derrick Turnbow may be worth speculative late-round picks if your league has a number of roster spots for Reserves. However, I would avoid set-up men like Washington’s Jon Rauch and Florida’s Taylor Tankersley unless you’re feeling really lucky or playing in a league where there’s no depth to be found on the waiver wire/free agent pool once the season begins.
7. Do you believe in punting categories?
No, I don’t. If you’re playing in a league that uses just 4 or 5 Hitting or Pitching categories, there’s not enough margin for error if you do that. I might consider it if I played in a larger league that uses 7+ categories for both Hitting and Pitching. People who believe in punting categories usually pick Saves or Stolen Bases. If you’re going to argue that new Closers always emerge during the season, and therefore it isn’t fatal if you leave your draft/auction without one, I’d buy that to some extent. However, in that case you’d need to figure out how easy it will be for you to obtain these players if/when they become available (via trade, free agency, waiver claim). How do you pick up free agents in your league? Is it first-come, first-served? Do you use a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) with weekly bids? Does the person at the bottom of the league standings have dibs?
Also, keep in mind that no statistical categories (Hitting or Pitching) are entirely uncorrelated with all other statistical categories. If you punt Stolen Bases, you may also be affecting your ability to compete in Runs Scored and perhaps even Batting Average. If you punt Saves, you may also be adversely affecting your ERA and WHIP (unless your Closers are Todd Jones and Joe Borowski).
Until next time,
The Sherpa