The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The following is an updated & consolidated version of two posts I made in April 2008 concerning weekly FAAB spending targets - enjoy!

Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement for the DL’d Jake Peavy, and you’re the only team in your league that currently needs to pick up a Starting Pitcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis, even if you are unlucky enough to have Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Maine, Justin Duchscherer, and Jesse Litsch on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as David Price, Matt Wieters, Tommy Hanson, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria, but you’re much more likely to get the next Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Matt Laporta, Brandon Wood, Jeff Clement, Chad Fox, Jesus Guzman, Gaby Sanchez, Kyle Banks, Jensen Lewis, Brian Bruney, and Tony Pena (the pitcher!) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

For those of you who play with a $1,000 FAAB budget, here is how I’d recommend structuring your spending over the course of the season:

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $77; $77 spent year-to-date; $923 remaining.
• Week 2 - $73; $150; $850.
• Week 3 - $71; $221; $779.
• Week 4 - $68; $289; $711.
• Week 5 - $65; $354; $646.
• Week 6 - $62; $416; $584.
• Week 7 - $59; $475; $525.
• Week 8 - $55; $530; $470.
• Week 9 - $52; $582; $418.
• Week 10 - $49; $631; $369.
• Week 11 - $46; $677; $323.
• Week 12 - $43; $720; $280.
• Week 13 - $40; $760; $240.
• Week 14 - $37; $797; $203.
• Week 15 - $34; $831; $169.
• Week 16 - $31; $862; $138.
• Week 17 - $28; $890; $110.
• Week 18 - $25; $915; $85.
• Week 19 - $22; $937; $63.
• Week 20 - $18; $955; $45.
• Week 21 - $15; $970; $30.
• Week 22 - $12; $982; $18.
• Week 23 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 24 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 25 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Your eyes are not playing tricks on you - even though we’re at the end of Week 10, and just under 40% of the season has elapsed, you’re completely justified in having already spent over 60% of your FAAB for the year!

Finally, everyone makes “mistakes” with their FAAB purchases - it’s just an inevitable part of the game.  How many of you spent large amounts of your FAAB on Matt Laporta or Brandon Wood earlier this season, only to see them languish on their respective teams’ bench before being sent back down to the minors?  Don’t worry - it happens.  The key is to make sure that your “mistakes” don’t make you gun-shy in pursuing other potential impact players in the future.  Just like a Closer who gives up a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th inning of a game, you’ve got to put it behind you and bid in future weeks as though your “mistake” had never happened.

Happy bidding!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

In a post earlier today I gave my tips for spending your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) wisely, along with recommended spending patterns for those with a $100 FAAB.

For those of you who play with a $1,000 FAAB budget, here is how I’d recommend structuring your spending over the course of the season:

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $77; $77 spent year-to-date; $923 remaining.
• Week 2 - $73; $150; $850.
• Week 3 - $71; $221; $779.
• Week 4 - $68; $289; $711.
• Week 5 - $65; $354; $646.
• Week 6 - $62; $416; $584.
• Week 7 - $59; $475; $525.
• Week 8 - $55; $530; $470.
• Week 9 - $52; $582; $418.
• Week 10 - $49; $631; $369.
• Week 11 - $46; $677; $323.
• Week 12 - $43; $720; $280.
• Week 13 - $40; $760; $240.
• Week 14 - $37; $797; $203.
• Week 15 - $34; $831; $169.
• Week 16 - $31; $862; $138.
• Week 17 - $28; $890; $110.
• Week 18 - $25; $915; $85.
• Week 19 - $22; $937; $63.
• Week 20 - $18; $955; $45.
• Week 21 - $15; $970; $30.
• Week 22 - $12; $982; $18.
• Week 23 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 24 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 25 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Here’s the recommended modification if your league has 26 claims instead of 25:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $74; $74 spent YTD; $926 remaining.
• Week 2 - $72; $146; $854.
• Week 3 - $68; $214; $786.
• Week 4 - $65; $279; $721.
• Week 5 - $63; $342; $658.
• Week 6 - $60; $402; $598.
• Week 7 - $57; $459; $541.
• Week 8 - $54; $513; $487.
• Week 9 - $51; $564; $436.
• Week 10 - $48; $612; $388.
• Week 11 - $46; $658; $342.
• Week 12 - $43; $701; $299.
• Week 13 - $40; $741; $259.
• Week 14 - $37; $778; $222.
• Week 15 - $34; $812; $198.
• Week 16 - $31; $843; $157.
• Week 17 - $28; $871; $129.
• Week 18 - $26; $897; $103.
• Week 19 - $23; $920; $80.
• Week 20 - $20; $940; $60.
• Week 21 - $17; $957; $43.
• Week 22 - $14; $971; $29.
• Week 23 - $11; $982; $18.
• Week 24 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 25 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 26 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Have a FAABulous weekend!

The Sherpa

Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement next week for the DL’d Michael Barrett, and you’re the only team in your league that needs to pick up a Catcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Livan Hernandez, even if you are unlucky enough to have Pedro Martinez, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Doug Davis on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence, but you’re much more likely to get the next Nelson Cruz or Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Heath Bell, Rafael Betancourt, Tony Pena (the pitcher!), Carlos Quentin, and Joey Votto (if available in your league) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

If your league also allows a claim before the first week of the season, here’s how I’d recommend adjusting your FAAB spending:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $7; $7 spent YTD, $93 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $14; $86.
• Week 3 - $7; $21; $79.
• Week 4 - $6; $27; $73.
• Week 5 - $6; $33; $67.
• Week 6 - $6; $39; $61.
• Week 7 - $6; $45; $55.
• Week 8 - $5; $50; $50.
• Week 9 - $5; $55; $45.
• Week 10 - $5; $60; $40.
• Week 11 - $5; $65; $35.
• Week 12 - $4; $69; $31.
• Week 13 - $4; $73; $27.
• Week 14 - $4; $77; $23.
• Week 15 - $3; $80; $20.
• Week 16 - $3; $83; $17.
• Week 17 - $3; $86; $14.
• Week 18 - $3; $89; $11.
• Week 19 - $2; $91; $9.
• Week 20 - $2; $93; $7.
• Week 21 - $2; $95; $5.
• Week 22 - $1; $96; $4.
• Week 23 - $1; $97; $3.
• Week 24 - $1; $98; $2.
• Week 25 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 26 - $1; $100; $0.

I’ll post similar charts for a $1,000 FAAB later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Last night I took part in an experts’ draft hosted by Mock Draft Central.com (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_3.jsp)

Viewers were able to send in questions during the draft - here are some of the more interesting strategy-related questions we were asked, followed by my answers:

1. How early is too early to draft a Pitcher, even one as dominant as Johan Santana?

It all depends on the specific characteristics of your particular league. In the 5×5 mixed league, 12-team, 14 Hitter/9 Pitcher format we were using last night, I would rank Johan Santana third overall. Most experts (and many non-experts!) will tell you that Pitchers should never be drafted in the first few rounds - obviously, I strongly disagree. It all comes down to quantifying Position Scarcity - how much of a drop-off is there at Starting Pitcher after Santana vs. how much of a drop-off is there after the top-rated players at other positions? While some of the anti-Starting Pitcher sentiment can be attributed to Pitchers’ predictability/consistency vs. Hitters’ predictability/consistency, I believe most of this bias is due to the fact that many people have a hard time quantifying the impact of a Pitcher on his fantasy team’s average-based Pitching categories (i.e. - ERA, WHIP).

2. Do you prefer auctions or snake drafts?

They’re both challenging (for different reasons), but I think auctions are more fun and give fantasy team managers a better taste for what it’s like to run a major league team with budgetary constraints. The major difference is that there’s a far greater degree of gamesmanship with auctions than there is with a snake draft - many people like that element and swear by the auction format; some people don’t and are happy to stick with snake drafts.

3. What’s the thinnest position this year?

Catcher, especially if you’re in a league that requires you to start two of them. The answer can also depend on your league’s format. For example, if you’re playing in an AL-only league, there’s surprisingly few top performers at First Base this year - of course, this depends in part too whether Designated Hitter types like David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, et. al., are also eligible at First Base in your league.

4. How will the Mitchell Report affect your player rankings this year?

Since it’s impossible to know which players not named in the Mitchell Report may have also been the subject of chemical experiments, I’m not including a “Mitchell Factor” in my player projections and rankings this year. However, if a player started/stopped using performance enhancing drugs that were actually affecting his results during the experience period I look at, then his “tainted” results may well be influencing my 2008 projections.

5. You haven’t drafted any Outfielders through the first 5 rounds - why not?

Position scarcity - there is much less of a drop-off after the top-rated Outfielders than there is after the top-rated players at most other positions. I didn’t take my first Outfielder until the 10th round, but was still able to put together a slate that consisted of Johnny Damon (10th round), Pat Burrell (12th round), Raul Ibanez (14th round), Jose Guillen (18th round), and Mark Teahen (23rd round). By waiting to draft Outfielders I was able to select players I had rated among the top at positions such as Shortstop (Hanley Ramirez - Round 1), Catcher (Victor Martinez - Round 2), and Second Base (Howie Kendrick - Round 8).

6. Is it worth taking Middle Relievers late in a draft?

With the standard caveat (”it depends on the particular characteristics of your league”), generally, I would say “yes”. However, I would target Middle Relievers who pitch for decent teams, have a high strikeout rate, and pitch in front of Closers who stand a decent chance of being replaced/injured at some point during the season. For 2008 I believe that list includes Cleveland’s Rafael Betancourt, San Diego’s Heath Bell, Minnesota’s Pat Neshek, and Colorado’s Brian Fuentes. If Detroit’s Joel Zumaya were healthy, he would definitely be on my list too. Even guys like Anaheim’s Scot Shields, Boston’s Manny Delcarmen, and Milwaukee’s Derrick Turnbow may be worth speculative late-round picks if your league has a number of roster spots for Reserves. However, I would avoid set-up men like Washington’s Jon Rauch and Florida’s Taylor Tankersley unless you’re feeling really lucky or playing in a league where there’s no depth to be found on the waiver wire/free agent pool once the season begins.

7. Do you believe in punting categories?

No, I don’t. If you’re playing in a league that uses just 4 or 5 Hitting or Pitching categories, there’s not enough margin for error if you do that. I might consider it if I played in a larger league that uses 7+ categories for both Hitting and Pitching. People who believe in punting categories usually pick Saves or Stolen Bases. If you’re going to argue that new Closers always emerge during the season, and therefore it isn’t fatal if you leave your draft/auction without one, I’d buy that to some extent. However, in that case you’d need to figure out how easy it will be for you to obtain these players if/when they become available (via trade, free agency, waiver claim). How do you pick up free agents in your league? Is it first-come, first-served? Do you use a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) with weekly bids? Does the person at the bottom of the league standings have dibs?

Also, keep in mind that no statistical categories (Hitting or Pitching) are entirely uncorrelated with all other statistical categories. If you punt Stolen Bases, you may also be affecting your ability to compete in Runs Scored and perhaps even Batting Average. If you punt Saves, you may also be adversely affecting your ERA and WHIP (unless your Closers are Todd Jones and Joe Borowski).

Until next time,

The Sherpa