The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Today I’ll turn the magnifying glass on my own projections to see how they stack up against the other projections I’ve reviewed previously. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 156,214, which is somewhat lower than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 4,737 (San Diego) to 5,049 (Dodgers) for NL teams, and 5,379 (Minnesota) to 5,780 (Detroit) for AL teams. The NL range is somewhat below the benchmark of 5,100-5,400 for NL teams, while the AL range is fairly consistent with the benchmark of 5,400-5,800 for AL teams. Note that these figures exclude projected ABs for Pitchers, which accounts for the different benchmarks for the two leagues.
3. Total Hits = 43,035, which is within the benchmark of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average = .276, which is above the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 5,303, which is within the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 22,191, which is slightly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 23,241, which is within the benchmark of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,057, which is slightly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - While the totals in some of the categories are outside the benchmark ranges, when viewed as a whole, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Hitters’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The differences between an “Expected Case” and “Best Case” set of projections may not affect your choices early in your draft or auction, but by the time you get down to the second and third-tier players (i.e. - where fantasy championships are often won), the differences can become significant. “Best Case” projections will lead you to overvalue the second and third-tier players, which can lead you to draft them too soon or pay too much for them in an auction. Use a set of “Expected Case” projections (preferably the Sherpa’s!) whenever possible.

I’ll look at my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll continue my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. Next up are the Hitters’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 201,801, which is significantly greater than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 5,902 (Phillies) to 7,911 (Nationals) for NL teams, and 6,422 (Rays) to 7,777 (Rangers) for AL teams. Based on results for the past 3 seasons, a much more reasonable range is 5,100-5,400 AB for an NL team, and 5,400 to 5,800 AB for an AL team. You can draw your own conclusions on the likelihood of the Nationals’ Hitters accumulating 2,000 AB more than the Phillies and 1,000 AB more than teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
3. Total Hits = 55,302, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average is .274, which is slightly higher than the benchmark range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,343, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,829, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,793, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,495, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of you draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

I just recently finished updating my player projections for the 2008 season based on all the roster adjustments at the end of Spring Training. So, in a follow-up to a post on 2/19/08, I’ll take my second crack at projecting the 2008 baseball standings. For those who are interested, the projected win total for each team is based on the projected difference between the team’s Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. Again, this matters because starting with a realistic set of player projections that make sense in the aggregate is the most important step in assigning fantasy baseball value to individual players.

NL East

New York 89-73

Atlanta 85-77

Philadelphia 80-82

Florida 71-91

Washington 70-92

NL Central

Chicago 84-78

Milwaukee 84-78

Houston 79-83

Cincinnati 76-86

St. Louis 75-87

Pittsburgh 74-88

NL West

Los Angeles 85-77

Arizona 83-79

Colorado 79-83

San Diego 77-85

San Francisco 71-91

AL East

New York 95-67

Boston 89-73

Tampa Bay 82-80

Toronto 82-80

Baltimore 73-89

AL Central

Detroit 89-73

Cleveland 87-75

Chicago 84-78

Minnesota 82-80

Kansas City 79-83

AL West

Anaheim 90-72

Seattle 81-81

Oakland 79-83

Texas 76-86

The Angels 4-win reduction is the biggest change since my first set of predictions in February. Even so, none of my projected division winners have changed.

Teams that will be better than expected: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland.

Team that will be worse than expected: Philadelphia.

Here are my predictions for the playoffs - they’re based on the assumption that the team with the better overall pitching (i.e. - lower team ERA) will win (admittedly far from perfect!) in a short series:

1) NL Central Playoff - Cubs beat Brewers.

2) Division Playoff Round - Mets beat Cubs; Braves beat Dodgers; Yankees beat Tigers; Red Sox beat Angels

3) League Championship Playoff Round - Mets beat Braves; Red Sox beat Yankees.

4) World Series - Mets beat Red Sox.

Last week I was asked during a radio interview which teams would be facing off in the 2008 World Series - my response at that time was the Mets and the Angels. I’m now going with the Red Sox instead of the Angels because I didn’t realize at the time what a big impact losing Lackey for 1.5-2 months and Escobar (probably) for the year would make on the Angels’ pitching staff.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll start my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. First up are the Hitters’ projections available at MLB.com. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams - can’t judge this; unfortunately, the MLB.com summary projections don’t include a Hitter’s projected AB.
2. Total AB for a team - see previous item.
3. Total Hits - see item #1.
4. Overall Batting Average - since AB for individual Hitters aren’t readily available, I used Runs Scored as a proxy for AB. This proxy suggests an overall Batting Average of .280, which is greater than the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,592, which is significantly above the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,510, which is significantly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,669, which is significantly above the benchmark of 22,000-23,000.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,664, which is significantly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - MLB.com’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of your draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at MLB.com’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

The Sherpa

As I mentioned in my previous post, I’ll be evaluating several popular, widely-available sets of fantasy baseball projections over the next few days. The goal is to determine whether each set of projections can serve as a realistic base for ranking players for your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

Here are some of the benchmarks based on 2005-07 MLB data that I’ll be using to evaluate the Pitchers’ projections:

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all Teams should be in the range of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team should range from 1,400-1,500.
3. The number of Wins and the number of Losses should both equal 2,430.
4. The number of Saves as a percentage of the number of Wins should range from 49%-52%, implying that the number of Saves should range from 1,190-1,265.
5. The number of Earned Runs Allowed should be in the range of 20,500-21,750.
6. The overall Earned Run Average (ERA) should be in the range of 4.25-4.50. Contrary to “conventional wisdom”, the difference between National League and American League ERA has been negligible over the past 2-3 years.
7. Total Walks Allowed should be in the range of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed should range from 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks + Hits per Inning Pitch (aka “WHIP or “Ratio”) should be in the range of 1.37-1.41.

As I stated in the “Hitting Benchmarks” post, if the set of projections underlying the player rankings/dollar values you’re using is inaccurate, then the resulting player rankings/dollar values are also likely to be inaccurate. Again, this problem will probably not be apparent to you in the early stages of your draft/auction - you’ll probably find that all projections for the top-tier players will be reasonably close to one another.

However, once you reach the second and third-tier players (where fantasy drafts/auctions are won and lost), it’s imperative to be working from a reasonable set of projections. If you aren’t, chances are you’ll be significantly overstating or understating a player’s true worth.

If it turns out you are working from an inaccurate set of projections, you have 2 options: (1) Hope/pray that everyone else in your league is also working from a set of projections that’s at least as inaccurate as the one you’re using, or (2) Throw away your current set of player projections/rankings/values and look for a better alternative. Again, over the next few days my goal is to be able to help you do just that!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Over the next few days I’ll be evaluating several popular, widely-available sets of fantasy baseball projections; the goal is to determine whether each set of projections can serve as a realistic base for ranking players for your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

Here are some of the benchmarks based on 2005-07 MLB data that I’ll be using to evaluate the Hitters’ projections (note: these figures exclude hitting stats for Pitchers):

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all Teams should be in the range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB for a Team should range from 5,100-5,400 for an NL team and from 5,400-5,800 for an AL team.
3. Total Hits should range from 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average should be in the range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs should range from 4,900 to 5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In should be in the range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored should range from 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases should be in the range of 2,500-3,000.

Why does this matter? Simply put, if the aggregate projections underlying the player rankings/dollar values you’re using aren’t consistent with recent baseball actual results, there’s a good chance the player rankings/dollar values you’re using will also be inaccurate in aggregate. This problem will probably not be apparent to you in the early stages of your draft/auction - you’ll probably find that all projections for the top-tier players will be reasonably close to one another.

However, once you reach the second and third-tier players (where fantasy drafts/auctions are won and lost), it’s imperative to be working from a reasonable set of projections. If you aren’t, chances are you’ll be significantly overstating or understating a player’s true worth.

If it turns out you are working from an inaccurate set of projections, you have 2 options: (1) Hope/pray that everyone else in your league is also working from a set of projections that’s at least as inaccurate as the one you’re using, or (2) Throw away your current set of player projections/rankings/values and look for a better alternative. In the next few days I hope to be able to help you do just that!

I’ll post the Pitching benchmarks shortly.

The Sherpa

When many fantasy baseball team owners get their hands on a set of player projections and rankings for the upcoming season, their first reaction is to perform a quick check on the projected stats for a few big-name Hitters and Pitchers. If these projections seem reasonable, the team owner concludes she/he is working with a reasonable set of projections and can proceed to plan their draft/auction strategy based on them.

This process may be a reasonable first step, but it is by no means an effective way to gauge the overall validity of a set of projections. In order to determine whether the set of projections you’re working with make sense from a “big picture” standpoint, I challenge you to ask the following questions:

1. Do the total number of At-Bats for Hitters and Innings Pitched for Pitchers make sense when compared to recent seasons’ results?
2. Do the total number of Pitchers’ Wins and Pitchers’ Losses equal each other? Do they both equal the total number of games in a season (2,430)?
3. Do the overall Batting Average and number of Home Runs/Runs Batted In/Stolen Bases make sense for Hitters?
4. Do the overall Earned Run Average, WHIP, and number of Saves make sense for Pitchers?
5. Do the number of Runs Scored by Hitters and the number of Runs Allowed by Pitchers balance?

If the answer to any of these questions is “No”, the player values and rankings based on the offending set of projections will be of little use to you during your draft or auction once you get past the big-name players.

During the rest of this week I will be putting some of the more popular/readily available sets of fantasy baseball projections under the microscope to see whether they pass muster. Since fair is fair, I will also subject my own projections to these tests.

Stay tuned!

The Sherpa