The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies.  When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire?  Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s.  Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires.  The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems.  Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!

Thoughts from Week 2

• Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones.  Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others.  Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
•  Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced.  In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below middle C).  Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career.
• Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
• Thanks for playing; better luck next time!  The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues.  After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he?  Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
• Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest.  In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being.  In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance.  Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement.  Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte.  Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin.  Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet.  No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
• Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro.  In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot.  Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last:  2.5.  Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s.  Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card.  Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.

Strategy corner

• It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster.  No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it?  It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position.  However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then?  The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum.  Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent?  Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent?  If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols.  Caveat emptor!
• If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great.  The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved.  If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear.  If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
• When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked.  Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear.  However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position.  If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

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Hi everyone,

With (extended) Week 1 of the baseball season in the books it’s time for a look back at the highlights and not-so-highlights from teams’  first 8-9 games.  Manny Ramirez decided to retire rather than face the music created by another positive drug test.  Willie Bloomquist and Sam Fuld were busy stealing bases.  Alex Gordon and Ryan Howard were off to fast starts; Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were not.  Texas, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler’s home run bashing, couldn’t lose, while Boston and Tampa couldn’t win.  What’s noise, and what do you need to be concerned about, even though we’re just 6% into the season?

Thoughts from Week 1

• Hurt locker -  Stephen Strasburg and Johan Santana are still on the shelf from injuries sustained last season.  Adam Wainwright, Domonic Brown, Brad Lidge,  and Chase Utley were all bitten by the injury bug in Spring Training.  At least Matt Holliday’s and Adam Dunn’s appendixes (appendices?) waited until after Opening Day to cause distress.  Other notable names already on the DL:  Evan Longoria, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart.  Fantasy baseball is becoming more and more like fantasy football’s war of attrition every season.

• Welcome to The Show! -Those making their major league debuts during the season’s first week included Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Brad Emaus, Marco Estrada, and Casey Coleman.  There will be many more following in their footsteps - there should be a number of potential “impact players” (especially in the American League) making their debuts after the “Super 2″ deadline has passed.

• Welcome back! - Joe Nathan is the biggest name (among those who missed all or most of last season) who returned during Week 1.  Others included Chris “The Pitcher” Young, Erik Bedard, and yes, even Bartolo Colon.

• Thanks for playing:  better luck next time life! - The final episode of the “Manny Being Manny” show came and went suddenly - no word on whether the offending substance was another fertility drug.  In addition to leaving his teammates in the lurch Manny likely dashed any chances he had of being elected to the Hall of Fame on the first or any subsequent ballot.

• Closer roulette - It didn’t take long for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to decide he’d seen enough of the Fernando Rodney Horror Show and replace his struggling closer with Jordan Walden.  Fantasy owners who scooped Walden off the waiver wire last week obviously hope this is a permanent change, but don’t count on it.  Ryan Franklin has already blown 3 saves for St. Louis, but Tony La Russa has done nothing to suggest he’s going to make a change, other than speculate that Miguel Batista would probably be a better candidate to close than either Jason Motte or Mitchell Boggs.  Houston’s Brandon Lyon is also off to a shaky start, but Wilton Lopez is ailing, and Mark Melancon seems like an afterthought at this point (although that could change quickly).  In Washington Sean Burnett has postponed the start of the Drew Storen Closing Era for at least a few weeks.  White Sox’ manager Ozzie Guillen has announced that Matt Thornton will have to share save opportunities with Chris Sale, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, and the clubhouse attendants.  Kyle Farnsworth seems to have earned Rays’ manager Joe Maddon’s trust, at least until Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, or the currently-injured J.P. Howell wrest it away from him.  Oakland’s Brian Fuentes, Toronto’s Jon Rauch, and Philadelphia’s Jose Contreras have all stepped into the closer’s role for their respective teams due to injuries.

• Role play - Tampa Bay’s Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Dan Johnson all stand to benefit from Manny Ramirez’ departure.  Johnson’s already reclaimed his uniform #24 that he gave up when Manny was signed.  Allen Craig filled in nicely for Matt Holliday while the latter was out losing weight by having his appendix removed.  Luke Hughes should get the majority of starts at second for the Twins while Nishioka is out.  It’s only a matter of time before David Murphy supplants Julio Borbon in the Rangers’ lineup.  Jorge Cantu is now in a semi-platoon with Brad Hawpe at first base for the Padres, and Mark Teahen is filling in at DH for the White Sox while Adam Dunn recovers from having his appendix removed (didn’t realize that was contagious).

Strategy Corner

• It’s never too early to start assessing your roster’s strengths and weaknesses in preparation for making potential trade offers.  The sooner you act, the more time you’ll have to make up ground in the standings.  Of course the caveat is not to overreact to abnormally good/bad starts (e.g. - don’t go trading away Albert Pujols for Sam Fuld, or even Alex Gordon).

• Unless you’re playing in an “only” league, it makes no sense whatsoever to horde your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) money.  If you’re in a mixed league, unless you’re playing in a league with weekly scoring periods, it becomes disproportionately harder to make up ground in the non-counting categories (e.g. - AVG, ERA, WHIP) as the season goes on.  Which is just an unnecessarily complicated way of saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Or something like that.  Plan your FAAB spending accordingly.

• One of the trickiest decisions a fantasy team owner has to make is how to allocate their bench spots.  Should they be split evenly between hitters and pitchers?  Should the manager just aim to fill these spots with the proverbial “best available player”?  Should they try to cover all the positions with their benchwarmers?  Another idea, although perhaps not as common as those previously listed, is to allocate most of the bench spots to starting pitchers.  Not only does this strategy make it easier to cover injuries (which is particularly important in an “only” league), but it also allows you to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups and pitchers with two starts in a given period.  Unless you’re subject to an innings pitched cap, you should absolutely take advantage of the opportunity such a strategy provides.

Wrapping Up

• Once again I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USAToday.com’s fantasy baseball blog, edited by Steve Gardner.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  The entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future entries, send us a note with your suggestion!

•  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have over 700 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves).  Sign up today and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Today’s trade between the Blue Jays and Rangers, in which the Blue Jays sent Mike Napoli to Texas in exchange for Frank Francisco doesn’t make sense to me.  I realize that Napoli should be an upgrade over the Yorvit Torrealba/Matt Treanor combination (at least offensively), and Frank Francisco is a potential closer candidate for the Jays.

However, having Napoli gave the Jays insurance in case either J.P. Arencibia doesn’t work out as an everyday catcher or Adam Lind doesn’t work out as an everyday first baseman.  Having Francisco gave the Rangers another closer candidate in the event that Neftali Feliz’ transition from closer to the rotation is successful.

Now, the Jays are stuck with Jose Molina as a fallback if Arencibia doesn’t work out and no clear fallback at first if Lind doesn’t work out (Edwin Encarnacion?).  Francisco is a nice add to the bullpen, but the Jays already had Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch as closer candidates in the likely event that Octavio Dotel proves to be ineffective in that role.  Texas has one less closer candidate to compete with Alexi Ogando and perhaps Tanner Scheppers.

Perhaps this trade will work out well for both teams, but right now I’m just not seeing it.

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  My last two blog entries featured my team hitting and team pitching rankings heading into the 2011 season based on off-season transactions to date.  I put these rankings together to project the standings by division.  Here’s what the Sherpa’s crystal ball is telling me on a late January afternoon:

AL East

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Cleveland

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland
3. Texas
4. Seattle

NL East

1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Atlanta
4. New York Mets
5. Washington

NL Central

1. Cincinnati
2. Milwaukee
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

NL West

1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Colorado
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego

A couple of quick comments/observations:

• I won’t project games won until after I’ve completed my player projections (which will allow me to project the number of runs each team will score and allow).  These projected standings may change slightly when the projections are complete.
•  4 teams appear to be the class of baseball heading into the 2011 season, at least based on my subjective team hitting and team pitching rankings:
  1. Boston
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Chicago White Sox

Not coincidentally, these are the only four teams I’d place in the top 10 for both team hitting and team pitching.

How do these projected standings compare to yours?  I welcome any and all comments/feedback - I certainly don’t have a monopoly on truth (nor do I pretend to), so let me know what you think!
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team pitching ranks:

1. Philadelphia
2. San Francisco
3. Cincinnati
4. Boston
5. Minnesota
6. Chicago White Sox
7. Atlanta
8. Milwaukee
9. Los Angeles Angels
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
11. St. Louis
12. Oakland
13. Colorado
14. Detroit
15. Chicago Cubs
16. Florida
17. Tampa Bay
18. Toronto
19. New York Yankees
20. Houston
21. Seattle
22. New York Mets
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Washington
27. Texas
28. Cleveland
29. Kansas City
30. Pittsburgh

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  With much of the nation in the grips of a nasty cold-snap, I figured this would be a good time to start cranking up the baseball talk for the 2011 season.  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team hitting ranks:

1. Boston
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cincinnati
5. Philadelphia
6. Texas
7. Toronto
8. Arizona
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Milwaukee
11. Baltimore
12. St. Louis
13. Minnesota
14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Detroit
16. Florida
17. New York Mets
18. Tampa Bay
19. Pittsburgh
20. San Francisco
21. Kansas City
22. Cleveland
23. Oakland
24. Colorado
25. Washington
26. Seattle
27. Atlanta
28. Los Angeles Dodgers
29. San Diego
30. Houston

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

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Hi everyone,

Happy New Year!  Hard to believe it’s only another 5 weeks or so until pitchers and catchers report.  When Carl Pavano is the biggest name among the remaining free agent starting pitchers, you know you’re getting close to the start of Spring Training.

I’m happy to announce that I’ve been chosen to participate in the Sirius XM/FSTA (Fantasy Sports Trade Association) fantasy baseball experts’ league for the 2011 season.  The draft for this 13-team league will take place on Mon 1/24 in Las Vegas starting at 8pm EST, and it will be broadcast live on Sirius XM’s fantasy sports channel.  We’ll be drawing for drafting positions sometime this week.

Hope your 2011 is off to a great start!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!

With just a few days left in the 2010 baseball season it’s natural for fantasy team owners to start thinking already about 2011.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to keep an eye on and which overvalued players to stay away from as we look forward to next season?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s season-ending entry on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’ve been one of several contributors to Zack’s blog throughout the season, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 26 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor has identified one undervalued player who was likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who was likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).  Unfortunately, this is the end of the road for Zack’s entries, as he’ll be taking on a new assignment within Forbes.com, but I’ve greatly appreciated the opportunity to contribute!

Enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

All season long I’ve been contributing to Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 26 - hard to believe the 2010 regular season ends this week!  

Each week I’ve highlighted 9 players who were largely unowned at that time and hopefully helped improve your team’s results.  I’ve done my best to offer a good mix of players both by position and by league, and I’ve also sought to avoid discussing players more than once.  Hopefully, we’ll be invited back to participate again in 2011 - either way, it’s been a lot of fun putting the entries together.

Good luck the final week of the season, and enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone!

Many fantasy baseball leagues are now deep into their playoffs.  Anxious fantasy team owners scour the box scores each day for even the suggestion that one of the players in their lineup might miss an upcoming game.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 25 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter