The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone!

September call-ups have arrived!  That’s great, because we all get more options, right?  Not necessarily.  You’re likely to see many names on lineup cards the last 4+ weeks of the season you don’t recognize, while some of your star players could log more pine time than usual.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 22 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 22!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick reminders before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherpa.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done four already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Weeks 19-20:  Cubs manager Lou Piniella unexpectedly called it a career with 6 weeks left in the season; Ryne Sandberg is waiting in the wings.  Chipper Jones’ career may also have come to an end, but certainly not on his terms.  Meanwhile in New York, one Met pitcher was mercilessly booed after his post-game assault on his common-law wife’s father, while another Met pitcher, recently accused of rape on a golf course, was cheered after a pitching performance that gave the Mets’ beleagured bullpen a day off.  Tensions boiled over during the recent Cardinals-Reds series in Cincinnati, resulting in an ugly bench-clearing brawl in which Johnny Cueto attempted to earn his black belt, but earned a seven-game suspension instead.

Thoughts from Week 19-20

• Hurt locker - Where to begin?  Recent new arrivals on the DL include Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury (likely out for the season), Lance Berkman, Carlos Guillen, Eric Patterson, Josh Willingham (out for the season), Jack Wilson (out for the season), Chipper Jones (out for the season), Jeff Nieman, Jeff Francis, Jeff Keppinger, Troy Glaus, and Cristian Guzman.  Consider Pedro Feliz, Will Rhymes, Mitch Moreland, Xavier Nady, Jamey Carroll, Chris Denorfia, Felix Pie, Reid Brignac, Josh Bell, Brian Duensing, Ross Ohlendorf, Josh Wilson, Brendan Ryan, and Ronny Cedeno as potential replacements.  Mets outfielder Jason Bay is probably done for the year with lingering concussion symptoms.  Francisco Rodriguez was placed on the restricted list - he’s done for the season, and Ronny Paulino was suspended 50 games for using PEDs, which effectively ends his season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jeremy Hellickson and Lorenzo Cain were recently called up to the bigs for the first time.  Unfortunately for Hellickson, he’s already been sent back to the minors, but expect him to be recalled when the Sept 1 March of the Prospects commences.

• Welcome back! - Eric Young Jr, Cameron Maybin, Michael Bowden, Jhoulys Chacin, Micah Hoffpauir, Travis Buck and Pat Misch are all back in the big leagues.  Jose Guillen wasn’t out of work long, as the Giants claimed him from the Royals.  Travis Hafner, Orlando Hudson, Mark Teahen, Kyle Lohse, Homer Bailey, Andrew Bailey, Juan Gutierrez, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Pena, Martin Prado, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and David Eckstein have all returned recently from DL stints. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Everth Cabrera, Luis Montanez, Jordan Brown, Aaron Cunningham, Juan Francisco, Dayan Viciedo, Fernando Martinez, and Chis Carter were all recently sent down to the minors - expect all of them to be back in the majors Sept 1 or shortly after.  Veterans Brad Hawpe and Jody Gerut were recently released - Hawpe will catch on again soon (some team will be willing to bet he’s not on the Garrett Atkins career path), and Gerut may too if a team is looking for an inexpensive stopgap option in the outfield.

• Closer roulette - With Francisco Rodriguez out for the season the Mets have turned to Hisanori Takahashi as their new closer, at least in the short run.  If you have room on your bench, speculative pick-ups of Bobby Parnell and even Manny Acosta may pay off down the road.  Jonathan Broxton seems to be back on track in Los Angeles, so Hong-Chih Kuo probably won’t get more than an occasional save from here on out.  White Sox closer Bobby Jenks’ back continues to flare up on him occasionally, but with set-up men J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton both hurting too, there’s no apparent successor (Sergio Santos?  Chris Sale?)  The Arizona situation remains a mess, although Sam Demel has pitched better recently, and Juan Gutierrez is back from the DL.  Avoid this bullpen at all costs.  The Washington closer situation has yet to sort itself out.  Drew Storen remains the most logical candidate, but for whatever reason Nats manager Jim Riggleman seems reluctant to state the obvious.  Avoid this bullpen as well.

• Role play  - The San Francisco outfield became more muddled with the recent acquisition of Cody Ross from the Marlins - expect Aaron Rowand to be relegated to a late innings defensive replacement role.  Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell are both more attractive options than Ross.  Aubrey Huff has shifted back to first base, forcing Travis Ishikawa back to the bench.  Mike Fontenot’s recent acquisition may cost both Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval some at-bats.  Ross’ departure has led to Cameron Maybin’s return in Florida; Maybin should have a firm grasp on centerfield for the duration of the season.  In Texas David Murphy has taken over centerfield from Julio Borbon, and Jorge Cantu continues to lose at-bats to rookie Mitch Moreland.  In Boston Jacoby Ellsbury’s return to the DL means more playing time for Darnell McDonald.  The Red Sox are trying to reacquire former Idiot Johnny Damon, but as of this writing it’s looking like Damon will exercise his no-trade clause to veto the deal.  In Houston Carlos Lee has been getting playing time at first base in place of rookie Brett Wallace, which may lead to more at-bats for reserve outfielders Jason Michael and Jason Bourgeois.  In Oakland Chris Carter’s recent return to the minors means that Daric Barton’s job is safe for now.  In Seattle Josh Wilson replaces Jack Wilson at short, although Matt Tuiasosopo may also get some playing time there.  In New York Jeff Francoeur’s job seems safe for now with Fernando Martinez back in the minors.  In Pittsburgh Ryan Doumit has been seeing more time in rightfield lately, meaning more at-bats for Chris Snyder and fewer for Lastings Milledge.  In Atlanta Martin Prado’s return and Derrek Lee’s acquisition mean fewer at-bats for Brooks Conrad now and for Omar Infante when Troy Glaus returns from the DL.  In Chicago Lee’s departure will mean more at-bats for both Xavier Nady and Micah Hoffpauir.

Strategy Corner

• Trading Places - In a previous post I described how to do a quick analysis of potential point swings by category to help in prioritizing trade and free agent targets for your team.  To summarize - the greater the potential point swing, the greater weight that category should receive in evaluating potential moves for your team.  The same analysis can be performed on other teams’ rosters to determine their areas of greatest need.  This can be useful both for determining whether there’s a potential match for a trade and how likely the other team is to bid on the same free agent you’re interested in.  I always appreciate it when owners proposing a trade to me at least take a stab at convincing me why the trade they’re poposing would improve my team, but it’s also painfully obvious that few owners bother to take this next logical step of actually analyzing their potential trading partner’s needs.

• Fill ‘er up! - Many roto leagues contain a games played (GP) maximum by position and an innings pitched (IP) max.  It neve ceases to amaze (or amuse) me just how many owners fail to take advantage of these maximums (or “maxima”, for those Latin scholars in the audience).  Of course, if your league uses more average-based categories than counting categories, you have to be careful when doing this.  However, in the vast majority of leagues, where the counting categories outnumber the average-based categories, you have almost nothing to fear but fear itself (or laziness).  If you have room on you bench, an extra outfielder, who can usually cover 4-6 starting spots (including Utility), is a good choice.  Just be sure your league doesn’t have a cap on the number of moves you can make or an escalating charge per transaction above a certain threshold!

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 21!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick public service announcements before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherp a.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done two already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Week 18:  In this season of no-hitters, Brandon Morrow’s one-hitter yesterday may actually be this year’s best pitching perfomance.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters keep bashing homers at a prodigious pace.  Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run (although hardly anyone noticed/cared) but was then injured in yet another freak accident on the field in a season full of them.  Trevor Hoffman re-emerged as the Brewers’ co-closer, although no one expect s this arrangement to last any longer than it takes Hoffman to get to 600 saves.

Thoughts from Week 18

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Andrew Bailey, Nyjer Morgan, Todd Martin, John Buck, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana (out for the season), Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis (out for the season).  Consider J.J. Putz, Mike Morse, Jason Kendall, Josh Thole, Luke Scott, Jonathan Lucroy, Lastings Milledge, and Casey Kotchman as potential replacements.  David Freese, who’s been on the DL but had hoped to return, has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Brett Wallace, Ryan Kalish, Mike Minor, J.P. Arencibia, Peter Bourjos, Chris Carter (A’s version), and Chris Sale have all been called up to the bigs recently for the f irst time.

• Welcome back! - Kila Ka’aihue is back in the majors, hopefully for an extended stay this time.  Carlos Delgado has been signed to a minor league contract by the Red Sox and will presumably be up with Boston as soon as he’s deemed to be “in shape”.  Dan Johnson and Fernando Martinez are among other familiar names recently called back up to the majors. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Situations can change quickly in baseball.  In Spring Training the Rangers were trying to figure out how they could fit both of their first base prospects, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, into their lineup at the same time.  Smoak is now with the Mariners (some would argue that still constitutes the minors) and has recently been sent down because he was being outplayed by Casey Kotchman.  Davis has been unproductive (to p ut it kindly) in two separate stints with the Rangers this season, and they recently farmed him out so that the newly-acquired Jorge Cantu could play first every day.  A similar situation exists with Texas’ catchers, but that’s not as interesting, so we’ll leave that alone.  It’s a wonder they’re still in first place.  Jose Guillen and Garret Anderson were both DFA’d this week; Guillen will likely latch on with a contender seeking a bat off the bench, while there’s a good chance the classy Anderson’s career has finally drawn to a close.  Alex Cora is no longer a Met, and Kenshin Kawakami and John Mayberry were sent down to the minors by their respective clubs.

• Closer roulette - With Andrew Bailey on the DL Michael Wuertz should see the majority of the save opportunities forr Oakland.  Bobby Jenks has a bad back, but don’t look for the White Sox to use J.J. Pu tz or Matt Thornton as the closer once Jenks regains his health.  With Juan Gutierrez on the DL Aaron Heilman is back as the D-backs’ closer, but keep an eye on Jordan Norberto if when Heilman struggles.  Matt Capps’ recent trade has caused shuffling in both the Nationals’ and the Twins’ bullpen.  Drew Storen figures to get the bulk of the save chances eventually for the Nats, but he may have to split opportunities with Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and possibly even Joel Peralta in the short-term.  Jon Rauch has been relegated to the role of (almost) seven-foot set-up man in Minnesota.  With Octavio Dotel now pitching for the Dodgers Joel Hanrahan (once the Nats’ closer) has taken over as the closer in Pittsburgh, while Evan Meek will continue to press his nose against the glass.  As mentioned above, Trevor Hoffman is back (briefly) as the Brewers’ (co-)closer in what can only be desc ribed as a crass publicity stunt shrewd move to take the pressure off rookie John Axford.  Finally, Kerry Wood’s departure from Cleveland has made Chris Perez the default closer for the Tribe.  Which would be a good thing except for the fact the Indians haven’t provided many save opportunities this season, and Perez has yet to look comfortable as a closer in several previous cameos.

• Role play  - Miguel Tejada’s arrival in San Diego has rendered Everth Cabrera useless for fantasy purposes.  Ryan Doumit’s return from the DL means that recent arrival Chris Snyder’s value is down the dain.  After today’s Jim Edmonds-Chris Dickerson trade the Reds’ outfield situation remains a mess, as Edmonds, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Jonny Gomes will essentially share two outfield spots.  The Brewers’ outfield situation is a bit clearer, but not by much.& nbsp; Chris Dickerson will take over from Lorenzo Cain as the primary fill-in while Carlos Gomez is on the DL.  It’s anybody’s guess what happens when Gomez returns.  Many saw Lance Berkman’s trade to the Yankees as a boon to his fantasy value, but I strongly disagree.  Yes, he’s hitting in a much more potent lineup, but he’ll give way to Marcus Thames at DH when a southpaw is on the mound - the lost at-bats will more than offset the gain from hitting in a better lineup.  Mike Lowell takes over as the Red Sox’ first baseman until Carlos Delgado is ready to take over as the Red Sox’ first baseman. 

Strategy Corner

• Analyzing fantasy categories/maximizing fantasy points - There are obviously lots of ways to do this for a roto league, but here’s one I like alot.  For each category your league uses, write down both the number of points you could gain and the number you could lose in the next week.  Then add together the absolute value of those numbers to get the potential “swing”.  For example, if you could gain 1 point and lose 3 points in AVG in the next week, write down 4 for that category.  Repeat for each category.  The higher the potential point swing, the higher priority you should give to that category when evaluating potential trades, lineup decisions, and free agent pickups.  Some will ask “Who cares about how many points I could lose?  I just want to gain points!”  So do we all, but the fact remains that many players excel in one or two categories and are mediocre (or worse) in the remaining ones.  Preventing the loss of points in one category will help you just as much as a gain of points in another (i.e. - it’s only the net effect of all the gains and losses we care about).  I choose the one-week evaluation period for two reasons: (1) at this point in the season there’s not much time left, so it makes sense to take a shorter-term view than you would earlier in the season, and (2) injuries and especially minor league call-ups will dilute the player pool in September, making it more difficult (at least in theory) to make up ground then than it is now.  Of course, the later you get in the season, the harder it is to move your results in the average-based categories because of the ever-increasing base of AB or IP.

• ERA/WHIP management - Towards the end of the season many owners, even experienced ones, let their guard down and begin to chase Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts while neglecting the impact doing so will have on their ERA and WHIP.  That’s not to say that streaming a pitcher or two will automatically cause your ERA and WHIP to skyrocket (see comment in previous bullet about i ncreasing IP base), but you still need to be at least somewhat mindful.  Especially in leagues with weekly lineup changes where you fear falling short of a minimum innings requirement, the temptation can be great to pick up any two-start pitcher who’s available or trade for a lower-tier closer.  If you’re going to do that, try to minimize the potential impact on you ERA and WHIP by picking up a middle reliever or two who can help you keep your ERA and WHIP in check.  Ideally, ty to pick up standout set-up men with winning teams, as they may also get the occasional win or hold.  Daniel Bard, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and pretty much anyone in the Padres’ bullpen (Gregerson, Thatcher, Stauffer et. al.) meet those criteria.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 19!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 17!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 16; this week we’ve seen trade talks heat up and watched Donnie Baseball learn an obscure baseball rule the hard way.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 16 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 16!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re heading towards the end of Week 15; this week we’ve already lost two iconic baseball figures (Bob Sheppard, George Steinbrenner) and seen an entertaining All-Star Game with an unusual outcome.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 15 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter