The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Week 3 featured . . . the weather wreaking havoc with the schedule.  In between the raindrops Cardinals’ manager Tony La Russa demonstrated that he’s a better meteorologist than Reds’ counterpart Dusty Baker.    Boston “finally” started winning, and things began to return to “normal” in Red Sox Nation.  Ryan Braun signed an ill-advised five-year contract extension, making him an even richer man.  The Marlins’ pitchers seemed to take a potential no-hitter late into games almost every night, but Hanley Van Winkle Ramirez has yet to awaken from his winter slumber.  Finally, Roy Halladay capped off a week of sterling pitching performances with your typical 14-strikeout game (yawn).

Thoughts from Week 3

• Hurt locker - Neftali Feliz, Victor Martinez, Logan Morrison, Angel Pagan, Dallas Braden, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, Nyjer Morgan, Jose Contreras, Jayson Nix, Juan Francisco, Skip Schumaker, and Allen Craig were among those who hit the DL this week.  Albert Pujols suffered a “minor hamstring strain” in Sunday night’s game, and is expected to miss several days, but he’ll apparently be able to avoid the DL.  Kendry Morales’ return date keeps getting pushed back further and further.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jerry Sands and Carlos Peguero were the most notable names among those who made their major league debuts this week.

• Welcome back! - Brandon Morrow and Jason Bay made their 2011 regular season debuts after returning from the DL.  Others returning after DL stints included Ubaldo Jimenez, Frank Francisco, Erick Aybar, Cody Ross, LaTroy Hawkins, Ryan Perry, and Nick Punto.  Chris Valaika, Jason Pridie, Mark Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, and Jason Turner all returned to the big leagues after biding their time in the minors.  Special mention goes out to Brandon Wood, who was designated for assignment by the Angels, traded to the Pirates, and brought back up to the majors within the week.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time! - Among those sent back to the minors this week were Ian Stewart, Brett Cecil, Jesus Flores, and George Kottaras.  But Brandon Belt’s demotion takes the cake (so to speak) - he was sent down on his 23rd birthday  (hey kid, we got you a birthday cake - sorry you aren’t here any more to enjoy it with us).  Honorable mention goes to Brad Emaus, whom the Mets selected last winter from Toronto during the Rule 5 draft; after being designated for assignment by the Mets Emaus was traded to the Rockies.  Unfortunately, Emaus’ story doesn’t end as happily as Brandon Wood’s (see previous bullet) - he was promptly sent down to the minors by the Rockies.

• Closer roulette - Things were relatively quiet on the closer front during the week, but then picked up unexpectedly over the weekend.  In St. Louis Mitchell Boggs seems to be adapting quickly to the closer’s role, as he finished the week with 3 saves.  Eduardo Sanchez appears to have moved ahead of Jason Motte for the time being in the pecking order, and thankfully Miguel Batista isn’t likely to pitch in a 9th inning anytime soon unless he’s performing mop-up duty.  Go ahead and discard Ryan Franklin - unlike Joe Nathan, Franklin has no realistic shot to regain the closer role in the foreseeable future.  The weekend injury bug bit first in Texas, where Neftali Feliz will be replaced by a committee that includes Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes, and perhaps even Darren O’Day.  Next, Jose Contreras was bitten by the bug - Ryan Madson inherits the closer job in South Philly with Antonio Bastardo available on days when Madson isn’t.  Madson has had a number of high profile meltdowns before as a closer, so Bastardo is a decent hedge.  Only time will tell whether Madson truly has “the right stuff”, or if he’s cut from the same cloth as Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins (i.e. - great setup men who, for whatever reason, failed repeatedly when given the chance to close).  Drew Storen has solidified his hold on the Nationals’ 9th-inning duties.  Since the White Sox have lost 10 out of their last 11 it isn’t apparent whether Matt Thornton still has his job as the closer.  Even if he does, it appears to be just a matter of time before Chicago gives Sergio Santos a shot - he makes a good speculative pickup if he’s still available in your league.

• Role play - Daniel Murphy appears to be the chief beneficiary of Emaus’ departure, although Jason Turner may also be given a shot at regular at-bats.  Brett Gardner is slumping horribly against all types of pitching; expect Andruw Jones to gain more playing time while Gardner figures things out.  Curtis Granderson continues to build on the improvements he made during the second half of last season, but I’m a skeptic - he makes an excellent sell high candidate if you can find a taker.  Cody Ross will get most of the playing time that Brandon Belt left behind.  Ryan Raburn and Michael Cuddyer have both been receiving playing time at second base recently - Cuddyer’s almost certainly gone already in competitive leagues, but Raburn may still be available.  Jerry Sands was ostensibly brought up to clear up the Dodgers’ mess in left field, but if James Loney continues to struggle don’t be surprised if Sands settles in as the everyday first baseman.  The Reds brought up Chris Valaika, but it appears to be Nick Punto who will see the biggest increase in playing time with both Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco out.

Strategy corner

• Early season call-ups - a dilemma that fantasy owners often find themselves faced with early in the season is how to deal with call-ups (either real or anticipated) of big-time prospects.  Do you spend your money now on a Jerry Sands or save your money in hopes that a Julio Teheran, Jesus Montero, Desmond Jennings, or Mike Trout will be called up in early June after the Super 2 deadline has passed?  I’m definitely in the “bird in hand is worth two in the bush” school of thought.  First, there’s not guarantee the prospects who aren’t up yet are going to perform well enough to merit a call-up.  Second, even if they do, chances are that multiple people in  your league will also be hanging on to their FAAB money or waiver priority for the same player(s) you’re interested in waiting for.  Third, and most importantly, the earlier in the season you get someone on your roster, the more of a chance that player has to make a meaningful difference (hopefully in a good way) on your team’s results for the season.  If you’re in a league that uses weekly scoring periods (i.e. - no carryover impact from one week to the next), then it makes sense to spend your FAAB budget roughly evenly throughout the season because a player’s impact on your team’s results is proportional to how many weeks are left in the season when you pick him up.  However, if that isn’t the case (i.e. - you use a season-long scoring period), then the later in the season you pick up a player, the more difficult it becomes for him to make a meaningful difference in your average-based categories.

• Anticipating propsect call-ups - Last week I got lucky in one of my leagues and picked up Jerry Sands for $5 (annual FAAB budget is $100) the day before he was called up.  There were no other bids on Sands, so at first I was kicking myself for wasting $5 ($0 bids are allowed).  However, if that same player had been called up two days earlier, he undoubtedly would have gone for much more than $5 in our weekly FAAB bidding.  How do you know when a prospect is about to be called up, especially if it’s not late May/early June or late August/early September?  Take a close look at the team in question.  The Dodgers think of themselves as a playoff contender this season, so they felt motivated to make a move in an effort to get more production from their offense.  That goal outweighed whatever financial benefits they would have gained by calling Sands up after the Super 2 deadline.  Conversely, a similar situation has developed in Kansas City but is being handled differently.  Kila Ka’aihue has been a disaster, and “can’t miss” prospect Eric Hosmer has been denting scoreboards in Triple-A.  Still, the Royals know that in spite of their hot start this year that they don’t have realistic playoff expectations, so it makes little sense for them to “rush” Hosmer.  There are always exceptions - the Giants held off on calling up Buster Posey last year, and it almost cost them a playoff spot.  Several years ago the Devil Rays called up Evan Longoria in early May.  However, there were mitigating circumstances in both cases.    The Giants had a veteran catcher (Bengie Molina) whom they’d just spent pretty good money on in free agency - they eventually traded him to Texas.  The Rays were campaigning very publicly to get a new stadium built for their team, and they wanted to put the best possible players on the field to sway public opinion in their favor.  See?  Things are never as simple as they appear to be.

• DL spots  - If you’re in a league that allows roster moves 24/7 or daily, stop a minute the next time you want to dump a player from your current roster and pick up another one.  Instead of making the add and drop simultaneously, first drop the offending player, then pick up a desirable player who’s currently on the DL (assuming you currently have unused DL spots).  Once you’ve picked up the player on the DL, move him to your team’s DL.  If you still have DL spots remaining, repeat as necessary.  Once you’ve filled all your DL spots pick up the player you would have added if you’d done a straight add-drop initially.  If you’re doing this with multiple players two guidelines apply: (1) only pick up the DL’d player if you’d also pick him up if he were healthy and available.  No sense in wasting a DL spot on Trevor Crowe unless you’re in a 30-team AL-only league, and even then maybe not (2) stagger the expected return dates of your DL’d player if possible.  If you pick up only guys that are due back much later in the season (e.g. - Johan Santana), you just make it more likely you’ll have to drop one of those players the next time a player on your current active roster needs to go on the DL.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies.  When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire?  Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s.  Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires.  The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems.  Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!

Thoughts from Week 2

• Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones.  Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others.  Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
•  Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced.  In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below middle C).  Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career.
• Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
• Thanks for playing; better luck next time!  The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues.  After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he?  Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
• Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest.  In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being.  In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance.  Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement.  Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte.  Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin.  Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet.  No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
• Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro.  In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot.  Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last:  2.5.  Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s.  Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card.  Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.

Strategy corner

• It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster.  No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it?  It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position.  However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then?  The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum.  Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent?  Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent?  If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols.  Caveat emptor!
• If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great.  The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved.  If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear.  If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
• When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked.  Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear.  However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position.  If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

All season long I’ve been contributing to Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 26 - hard to believe the 2010 regular season ends this week!  

Each week I’ve highlighted 9 players who were largely unowned at that time and hopefully helped improve your team’s results.  I’ve done my best to offer a good mix of players both by position and by league, and I’ve also sought to avoid discussing players more than once.  Hopefully, we’ll be invited back to participate again in 2011 - either way, it’s been a lot of fun putting the entries together.

Good luck the final week of the season, and enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 25!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 24!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

Football season kicks off tomorrow night, but that event is hardly registering with hard-core fantasy baseball team owners.  As the talent pool becomes more and more diluted with September call-ups, finding available waiver wire options with meaningful playing time ahead becomes a greater challenge than at any other point during the season.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 23 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone!

September call-ups have arrived!  That’s great, because we all get more options, right?  Not necessarily.  You’re likely to see many names on lineup cards the last 4+ weeks of the season you don’t recognize, while some of your star players could log more pine time than usual.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 22 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone!

September call-ups are less than a week away, so you know that Fall and playoff baseball aren’t far away!  Speaking of playoffs, many of you are just starting the playoffs in your fantasy leagues.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 21 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 21!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick public service announcements before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherp a.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done two already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Week 18:  In this season of no-hitters, Brandon Morrow’s one-hitter yesterday may actually be this year’s best pitching perfomance.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters keep bashing homers at a prodigious pace.  Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run (although hardly anyone noticed/cared) but was then injured in yet another freak accident on the field in a season full of them.  Trevor Hoffman re-emerged as the Brewers’ co-closer, although no one expect s this arrangement to last any longer than it takes Hoffman to get to 600 saves.

Thoughts from Week 18

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Andrew Bailey, Nyjer Morgan, Todd Martin, John Buck, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana (out for the season), Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis (out for the season).  Consider J.J. Putz, Mike Morse, Jason Kendall, Josh Thole, Luke Scott, Jonathan Lucroy, Lastings Milledge, and Casey Kotchman as potential replacements.  David Freese, who’s been on the DL but had hoped to return, has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Brett Wallace, Ryan Kalish, Mike Minor, J.P. Arencibia, Peter Bourjos, Chris Carter (A’s version), and Chris Sale have all been called up to the bigs recently for the f irst time.

• Welcome back! - Kila Ka’aihue is back in the majors, hopefully for an extended stay this time.  Carlos Delgado has been signed to a minor league contract by the Red Sox and will presumably be up with Boston as soon as he’s deemed to be “in shape”.  Dan Johnson and Fernando Martinez are among other familiar names recently called back up to the majors. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Situations can change quickly in baseball.  In Spring Training the Rangers were trying to figure out how they could fit both of their first base prospects, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, into their lineup at the same time.  Smoak is now with the Mariners (some would argue that still constitutes the minors) and has recently been sent down because he was being outplayed by Casey Kotchman.  Davis has been unproductive (to p ut it kindly) in two separate stints with the Rangers this season, and they recently farmed him out so that the newly-acquired Jorge Cantu could play first every day.  A similar situation exists with Texas’ catchers, but that’s not as interesting, so we’ll leave that alone.  It’s a wonder they’re still in first place.  Jose Guillen and Garret Anderson were both DFA’d this week; Guillen will likely latch on with a contender seeking a bat off the bench, while there’s a good chance the classy Anderson’s career has finally drawn to a close.  Alex Cora is no longer a Met, and Kenshin Kawakami and John Mayberry were sent down to the minors by their respective clubs.

• Closer roulette - With Andrew Bailey on the DL Michael Wuertz should see the majority of the save opportunities forr Oakland.  Bobby Jenks has a bad back, but don’t look for the White Sox to use J.J. Pu tz or Matt Thornton as the closer once Jenks regains his health.  With Juan Gutierrez on the DL Aaron Heilman is back as the D-backs’ closer, but keep an eye on Jordan Norberto if when Heilman struggles.  Matt Capps’ recent trade has caused shuffling in both the Nationals’ and the Twins’ bullpen.  Drew Storen figures to get the bulk of the save chances eventually for the Nats, but he may have to split opportunities with Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and possibly even Joel Peralta in the short-term.  Jon Rauch has been relegated to the role of (almost) seven-foot set-up man in Minnesota.  With Octavio Dotel now pitching for the Dodgers Joel Hanrahan (once the Nats’ closer) has taken over as the closer in Pittsburgh, while Evan Meek will continue to press his nose against the glass.  As mentioned above, Trevor Hoffman is back (briefly) as the Brewers’ (co-)closer in what can only be desc ribed as a crass publicity stunt shrewd move to take the pressure off rookie John Axford.  Finally, Kerry Wood’s departure from Cleveland has made Chris Perez the default closer for the Tribe.  Which would be a good thing except for the fact the Indians haven’t provided many save opportunities this season, and Perez has yet to look comfortable as a closer in several previous cameos.

• Role play  - Miguel Tejada’s arrival in San Diego has rendered Everth Cabrera useless for fantasy purposes.  Ryan Doumit’s return from the DL means that recent arrival Chris Snyder’s value is down the dain.  After today’s Jim Edmonds-Chris Dickerson trade the Reds’ outfield situation remains a mess, as Edmonds, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Jonny Gomes will essentially share two outfield spots.  The Brewers’ outfield situation is a bit clearer, but not by much.& nbsp; Chris Dickerson will take over from Lorenzo Cain as the primary fill-in while Carlos Gomez is on the DL.  It’s anybody’s guess what happens when Gomez returns.  Many saw Lance Berkman’s trade to the Yankees as a boon to his fantasy value, but I strongly disagree.  Yes, he’s hitting in a much more potent lineup, but he’ll give way to Marcus Thames at DH when a southpaw is on the mound - the lost at-bats will more than offset the gain from hitting in a better lineup.  Mike Lowell takes over as the Red Sox’ first baseman until Carlos Delgado is ready to take over as the Red Sox’ first baseman. 

Strategy Corner

• Analyzing fantasy categories/maximizing fantasy points - There are obviously lots of ways to do this for a roto league, but here’s one I like alot.  For each category your league uses, write down both the number of points you could gain and the number you could lose in the next week.  Then add together the absolute value of those numbers to get the potential “swing”.  For example, if you could gain 1 point and lose 3 points in AVG in the next week, write down 4 for that category.  Repeat for each category.  The higher the potential point swing, the higher priority you should give to that category when evaluating potential trades, lineup decisions, and free agent pickups.  Some will ask “Who cares about how many points I could lose?  I just want to gain points!”  So do we all, but the fact remains that many players excel in one or two categories and are mediocre (or worse) in the remaining ones.  Preventing the loss of points in one category will help you just as much as a gain of points in another (i.e. - it’s only the net effect of all the gains and losses we care about).  I choose the one-week evaluation period for two reasons: (1) at this point in the season there’s not much time left, so it makes sense to take a shorter-term view than you would earlier in the season, and (2) injuries and especially minor league call-ups will dilute the player pool in September, making it more difficult (at least in theory) to make up ground then than it is now.  Of course, the later you get in the season, the harder it is to move your results in the average-based categories because of the ever-increasing base of AB or IP.

• ERA/WHIP management - Towards the end of the season many owners, even experienced ones, let their guard down and begin to chase Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts while neglecting the impact doing so will have on their ERA and WHIP.  That’s not to say that streaming a pitcher or two will automatically cause your ERA and WHIP to skyrocket (see comment in previous bullet about i ncreasing IP base), but you still need to be at least somewhat mindful.  Especially in leagues with weekly lineup changes where you fear falling short of a minimum innings requirement, the temptation can be great to pick up any two-start pitcher who’s available or trade for a lower-tier closer.  If you’re going to do that, try to minimize the potential impact on you ERA and WHIP by picking up a middle reliever or two who can help you keep your ERA and WHIP in check.  Ideally, ty to pick up standout set-up men with winning teams, as they may also get the occasional win or hold.  Daniel Bard, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and pretty much anyone in the Padres’ bullpen (Gregerson, Thatcher, Stauffer et. al.) meet those criteria.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

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