What I Learned From the Tout Wars’ Mixed League Auction (Tue 4/17/12)
Tuesday, April 17th, 2012On Saturday, March 24th, I had the privilege of participating in my second Tout Wars mixed league auction (here’s the spreadsheet tracking that auction). Rather than give a player-by-player recap of my auction (which would interest no one besides myself, and is almost a month out-of-date at this point), here are some observations I’d like to share based both on this auction and a number of others I participated in this spring:
- After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions. Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened. Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.
- Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing. When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase. However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50. There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark. So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?
- Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players. If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated. However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis. I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.
- Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers. If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.
- Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers. Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”. Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree. However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.
- Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so. Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis). Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel). Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko). Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn). I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.
- Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources. Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”. The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class. You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.
- Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better. Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.
- Buy stats, not players. Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction. Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction. I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points. Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.
All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is). How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size? Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season? Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?
Until next time!
The Sherpa
Scott
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