The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 37) - KC, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Tim Lincecum (4) - SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
3. Javier Vazquez (45) - ATL, SP
   • Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts
4. Felix Hernandez (50) -SEA, SP
   • Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
5. Dan Haren (7) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
6. Roy Halladay (3) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
7. Chris Carpenter (285) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.35 Sherpa Pts
8. Adam Wainwright (13) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
9. CC Sabathia (2) - NYY, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.68 Sherpa Pts
10. Justin Verlander (73) - DET, SP
    • Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

As was the case last year, the most interesting observation from my perspective is the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

27. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 1.92 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.72 Sherpa Pts

63. Jake Peavy (5) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 101.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

402. Brandon Webb (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

65. Cole Hamels (9) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.71 Sherpa Pts

74. Rich Harden (9) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.22 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts

69. Roy Oswalt (10) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.53 Sherpa Pts

We’ll soon be starting work here in Sherpaville on our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 24 HR would be given a score of 0.75 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 3.83 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.31 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
7. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 2.81 Total Sherpa Points
9. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 2.76 Total Sherpa Points
10. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 2.72 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 24 HR, then a player with 8 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
3. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 123.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 106 K, 3.18 Total Sherpa Points
4. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
6. Edwin Jackson (Det, SP) - 121.2 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 97 K, 3.09 Total Sherpa Points
7. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 285 AB, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .305 AVG, 56 R, 3.05 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Verlander (Det, SP) - 122.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 149 K, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
9. Josh Beckett (Bos, SP) - 121.0 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 110 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jered Weaver (LAA, SP) - 120.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 104 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in an AL-only format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.71 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.00 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.61 (3.85, 1st)
3. Justin Duchscherer - 3.04 (2.80, 6th)
4. Ervin Santana - 2.72 (2.09, 20th)
5. James Shields - 2.58 (2.90, 4th)
6. Joe Saunders - 2.55 (1.64, 35th)
7. Mariano Rivera - 2.37 (2.80, 5th)
8. Mike Mussina - 2.32 (2.05, 21st)
9. Josh Beckett - 2.20 (2.78, 7th)
10. Felix Hernandez - 2.16 (2.77, 8th)
11. Scott Kazmir - 2.16 (2.67, 9th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. Roy Halladay - 3.85 (Year-to-Date score = 3.61 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd)
2. John Lackey - 3.21 (1.97, 19th)
3. Cliff Lee - 3.00 (3.71, 1st)
4. James Shields - 2.90 (2.58, 5th)
5. Mariano Rivera - 2.80 (2.37, 7th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.80 (3.04, 3rd)
7. Josh Beckett - 2.78 (2.20, 9th)
8. Felix Hernandez - 2.77 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
9. Scott Kazmir - 2.67 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.63 (1.94, 20th)

John Lackey’s year-to-date results are obviously hampered by the fact that he didn’t pitch his first regular season game until May 14th. Still, with three bad outings in his last four starts, he may be a buy-low candidate today. I would also consider Daisuke Matsuzaka a buy-low candidate at this point in the season. On the flip side, three Pitchers I would be looking to sell high on if I owned them: (1) Ervin Santana, (2) Joe Saunders, and (3) Mike Mussina.
In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an NL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa