The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Red Sox’ stats (he ranked 43rd overall based on 365 At-Bats) and Mark Teixeira’s Angels’ stats (he ranked 64th based on 193 At-Bats)

1. Dustin Pedroia (Preseason rank was 45) - BOS, 2B

• Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 3.50 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.97 Sherpa Pts

2. Josh Hamilton (60) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 3.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.81 Sherpa Pts

3. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 4.01 Sherpa Pts

4. Grady Sizemore (11) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 634 AB, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 SB, .268 AVG, 101 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 629 AB, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 27 SB, .285 AVG, 121 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

5. Aubrey Huff (69) - BAL, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 580 AB, 21 HR, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.75 Sherpa Pts

6. Kevin Youkilis (39) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 3 SB, .312 AVG, 91 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 96 R, 2.08 Sherpa Pts

7. Miguel Cabrera (3) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.51 Sherpa Pts

8. Bobby Abreu (7) - NYY, OF

• Actual stats: 609 AB, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB, .296 AVG, 100 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 18 HR, 106 RBI, 28 SB, .287 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts

9. Ichiro Suzuki (6) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 686 AB, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 43 SB, .310 AVG, 103 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 665 AB, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 37 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts

10. Justin Morneau (25) - MIN, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG, 97 R, 2.96 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 599 AB, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG, 88 R, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list, including Pedroia, Huff, and Youkilis. I didn’t think Josh Hamilton could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be a top fantasy producer, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results. Using this indicator, I have little doubt Alex Rodriguez would have been at the top of the list had he not missed almost a month due to injury (only the second time in 13 seasons as a full-time big-leaguer that he’d missed a significant number of games).

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

65. David Ortiz (2) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

71. Carl Crawford (4) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

16. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

28. Derek Jeter (8) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 596 AB, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .300 AVG, 88 R, 2.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 651 AB, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 20 SB, .315 AVG, 109 R, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

101. Howie Kendrick (9) - LAA, 2B

• Actual stats: 340 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB, .306 AVG, 43 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 15 HR, 92 RBI, 16 SB, .314 AVG, 103 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

37. Delmon Young (10) - MIN, OF

• Actual stats: 575 AB, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG, 80 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 670 AB, 21 HR, 93 RBI, 21 SB, .296 AVG, 102 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard AL-only league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Ian Kinsler - 3.82 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.65 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Josh Hamilton - 3.34 (3.00, 9th)
3. Alex Rodriguez - 3.19 (4.35, 1st)
4. Grady Sizemore - 3.06 (3.22, 3rd)
5. Jermaine Dye - 2.98 (2.95, 11th)
6. Carlos Quentin - 2.90 (2.90, 12th)
7. Justin Morneau - 2.80 (3.07, 6th)
8. Dustin Pedroia - 2.76 (2.62, 25th)
9. Kevin Youkilis - 2.70 (2.63, 24th)
10. Ichiro Suzuki - 2.58 (3.08, 5th)

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 4.35 (Year-to-Date score = 3.19 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.65 (3.82, 1st)
3. Grady Sizemore - 3.22 (3.06, 4th)
4. Manny Ramirez - 3.16 (2.56, 11th)
5. Ichiro Suzuki - 3.08 (2.58, 10th)
6. Justin Morneau - 3.07 (2.80, 7th)
7. Miguel Cabrera - 3.00 (2.33, 18th)
8. Magglio Ordonez - 3.00 (2.35, 17th)
9. Josh Hamilton - 3.00 (3.34, 2nd)
10. Carl Crawford - 2.97 (2.17, 26th)

With fantasy league trading deadlines rapidly approaching, these lists can serve as a guide to potential sell high and buy low candidates. For example, if you currently own Josh Hamilton, and the Alex Rodriguez owner in your league is willing to trade A-Rod in a one-for-one deal for Hamilton, I’d do it in a heartbeat!

The other “sell high” candidates that jump out from the lists above are Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. If you’re looking for a “buy low” candidate, Carl Crawford is definitely a player worth pursuing for the home stretch.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 AL-only Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa