The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

An old baseball cliche describes the season as “a marathon, not a sprint”, and for most of the season, that comparison is appropriate. The baseball season has 26 weeks, a marathon is just over 26 miles, and surviving both requires a combination of pacing and persistence.

However, that comparison goes out the window in the final week of the baseball season for those managing a fantasy baseball team. With just a handful of games left on the schedule, there’s no time left to “pace yourself”. Those in head-to-head leagues are slugging it out for the league championship, a consolation round, or just for pride. Those in rotisserie leagues are scouring the standings, looking for opportunities to eke out a final precious point or two.

Regardless of which format your league uses, here are some helpful tips to keep in mind heading into the final week of the season:

1. Beware of injuries, especially to star players. If you still have the likes of Hideki Matsui, Carlos Guillen, or Yunel Escobar in your lineup (just to name a few), remove them from your lineup immediately! Don’t expect the Marlins to rush Hanley Ramirez back either. Teams will often shut down injured players early, especially if they’re out of the standings. Don’t get stuck with one of them in your lineup for the last week, or you may spend the entire off-season regretting it.
2. Maximize Games Played and Innings Pitched. If you’re trying to decide between two players of roughly similar ability for a spot in your final week’s lineup, remember to consider any differences in games played. Manny Ramirez may post better fantasy numbers over the course of a season than Carlos Beltran, but if the Mets play seven games in the final week of the season and the Dodgers play six, I’d go with Beltran in leagues that require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week. The same goes for Middle Relievers and Closers.
3. Be careful in selecting 2-start Pitchers. Johan Santana is listed as a two-start pitcher this week. That means he has to be in your weekly lineup, right? Maybe not. Of course, I’d still rather have one start from Johan Santana than two starts from most pitchers in the league. However, if I’m chasing Wins or Strikeouts at this point and am fairly locked into a place in the ERA and WHIP categories, I’d be looking for other options. If the Mets are already locked into a playoff spot (either as the division winner or the wild card) heading into the weekend, there’s a good chance they’ll skip Santana’s second start so that he’ll be available to pitch twice in a five-game playoff series. Remember, MLB teams could care less about how their decisions impact our fantasy rosters!
4. Keep up to date on recent Closer changes. Maybe the other owners in your league have stopped paying attention if they’re no longer in contention. Maybe the other owners are all happy with their current Closers. Whatever the reason, check to see whether recently annointed Closers such as Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom are available in your league.
5. Assume that playoff-bound teams will rest players. It’s a safe bet that teams like the Cubs and Angels will go easy on their Starting Pitchers and give their everyday players at least one or two games off during the last week of the season since they have nothing to play for. Since both these teams have seven games this week, I wouldn’t count on the everyday players starting more than five games.
6. Start players on teams that still have something to play for. The Mets are Exhibit A here, since they’re still in the running for both their division crown and the NL wild card. The Diamondbacks are another team with 7 games this week that still has something to play for. Although the Brewers have just 6 games this week, the Mets’ bullpen figures to keep them in the wild card race at least until the start of the weekend. The White Sox/Twins race will likely be decided before the weekend, as will the Rays/Red Sox race, so expect those teams to rest players once the races are decided.
7. Watch for other fantasy teams’ discards. The final week of the season usually gives rise to some interesting, if not downright questionable moves on the part of fantasy team owners. The vast majority of these moves are not the result of collusion; rather, they are the result of fantasy team owners assessing which categories they can still make up ground in, then acting on that assessment. However, this can create some great opportunities for the vigilant owner. Perhaps another team has dropped a Stolen Base guy or two (e.g. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn) in an effort to pick up a few more Home Runs the last week of the season. If you need Stolen Bases, be prepared to pounce.

Good luck the rest of the way!

The Sherpa

With just over 40% of the regular season remaining to be played, the 32 MLB teams now have a pretty idea of whether they will contend for a playoff spot this season. All of the contenders are looking for ways to upgrade their team in the weeks leading up to the July 31st trading deadline.

Most of the rumored acquisitions would represent incremental improvements rather than dramatic upgrades. However, there is one exception, the proverbial elephant in the room. Of course, that would be Barry Lamar Bonds, the all-time home run leader (until at least 2014-15, when Alex Rodriguez should assume that title, assuming he stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t suffer a dramatic drop-off in his production).

Many baseball insiders doubt that Bonds will play again, at least not this season. Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, recently voiced the opinion of many when he stated that his star client has been blacklisted by the baseball establishment. That may be due to Bonds’ age (he’ll be 44 next week), his inability to stay healthy/play in the outfield for extended periods of time, his ongoing legal entanglements related to alleged steroid and HGH use, his clubhouse demeanor, the accompanying media circus, or some combination of these factors. Whatever the reason(s), teams collectively feel that the distractions Bonds’ presence would create outweigh his remaining usefulness as a hitter (among all Hitters with at least 20 AB in 2007, Bonds led the majors with a .480 On Base Percentage!)

I may be in the minority, but I still firmly believe that the temptation of adding a hitter of Bonds’ stature to his lineup will prove too much to resist for some GM as the July 31st trading deadline nears, then passes. Someone will crack, break the glass, grab the jewels, and run. Of the 32 MLB teams, I believe there are 8 candidates to do just that:

1. Tampa Bay - Bonds would represent a huge upgrade over Jonny Gomes, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, or anyone else the Rays may be tempted to trot out at DH. Besides, who could resist Tampa’s potential marketing slogan (”putting the Devil back in the Rays”)? Bonds would definitely inject life (and hopefully nothing else) into Tampa’s inconsistent offense.
2. NY Mets - far less likely because of Bonds’ assumed inability to play the outfield on a consistent basis. However, who would you rather have in left field 4-5 games per week - Bonds, Fernando Tatis, Nick Evans, Endy Chavez, or Angel Pagan?
3. Detroit - depending on how both Gary Sheffield’s body and the Tigers’ pitchers’ arms hold up, this could also be a good match.
4. Minnesota - signing Bonds would relegate either Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer to the bench.
5. Los Angeles Angels - less likely, because signing Bonds to DH would force Vlad Guerrero to play right field almost every day, which the Angels seem reluctant to do.
6. NY Yankees - Hideki Matsui may be out for the rest of the season, which would add to the offensive woes for the surprisingly run-challenged Bombers’ offense. However, with Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi all needing to occupy the DH spot on occasion already, Bonds wouldn’t fit as well here as he would with some of the other teams further up the list.
7. Oakland - Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney are already injured, so what’s the downside to adding Bonds? Sure, the A’s have a surplus of outfielder/DH types at this point (Exhibit A: Jack Cust). However, in an organization that places a high value on OBP and has surprisingly managed to stay within shouting distance of the Anemic Angels in spite of a “Who’s he?” pitching staff, Bonds may make sense.
8. Boston - Bonds is a logical replacement for the Red Sox if David Ortiz turns out to be less than fully recovered from his tendon sheath injury.

So, assuming that some GM soon does the “unthinkable”, what kind of stats should a fantasy team owner expect Bonds to produce over the last 2 months or so of the season? Here are my projections:

• 45 Games Played
• 148 At Bats
• 31 Runs
• 41 Hits
• 8 Doubles
• 0 Triples
• 11 Home Runs
• 29 Runs Batted In
• 44 Walks
• 22 Strikeouts
• .457 On Base Percentage
• .554 Slugging Percentage
• 1.011 On Base + Slugging Percentage

Would those kinds of stats pique your interest and help your fantasy team? I thought so. Unless you have moral qualms about owning Bonds, he’s definitely worth a speculative pick-up in your league right now if your rules permit, you have the roster space, and he’s available.

Go get him!

Until next time,

The Sherpa