The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging.  Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.

The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:

1. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter.  He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
2.  Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power.  Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
3. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
4. Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
5. Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too.  If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
6. Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded.  The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
7. Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez).  Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation.  He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
9. Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start.  While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season.  If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
10. Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall.  If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
11. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
12. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
13. J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them.  An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
14. Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up.  However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
16. Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.

I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.

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This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Rich Harden, SP, ChC (2.13 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.66 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.47)
2. Cole Hamels, SP, Phi (2.27 - 1.03 = +1.24)
3. Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou (1.93 - 0.78 =+1.15)
4. Johan Santana, SP, NYM (3.40 - 2.32 = +1.08)
5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (1.48 - 0.46 = +1.02)
6. Jose Valverde, RP, Hou (1.52 - 0.56 = +0.96)
7. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Fla (0.52 - -0.26 = +0.78)
8. Carlos Zambrano, SP, ChC (1.99 - 1.24 = +0.75)
9. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF (3.27 - 2.56 = +0.71)
10. Ryan Dempster, SP, ChC (1.92 - 1.28 = +0.64)

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Zach Duke, SP, Pit (0.84 - 1.88 = -1.04)
2. Jason Marquis, SP, Col (0.75 - 1.55 = -0.80)
3. Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD (1.91 - 2.61 = -0.70)
4. Livan Hernandez, SP, NYM (0.20 - 0.88 = -0.68)
5. Jeff Weaver, SP, LAD (0.01 - 0.60 = -0.59)
6. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin (1.66 - 2.24 = -0.58)
7. Randy Wells, SP, ChC (0.43 - 1.00 = -0.57)
8. Chris Volstad, SP, Fla (0.51 - 1.02 = -0.51)
9. Brian Wilson, RP, SF (1.34 - 1.83 = -0.49)
10. Russ Ortiz, SP, Hou (0.06 - 0.55 = -0.49)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at AL Hitters in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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