The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 219 AB, 22 HR, 57 RBI, 9 SB, .324 AVG, 50 R, 3.73 Total Sherpa Points
2. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 242 AB, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG, 51 R, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 1.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 97 K, 3.41 Total Sherpa Points
4. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 249 AB, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, .329 AVG, 48 R, 3.26 Total Sherpa Points
5. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 213 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB, .319 AVG, 44 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
6. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 103.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88 K, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
7. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 256 AB, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 36 SB, .316 AVG, 45 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
8. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 94.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.20 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 90 K, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
9. Jason Bay (Bos, OF) - 227 AB, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 5 SB, .286 AVG, 45 R, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points
10. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 225 AB, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 17 SB, .364 AVG, 40 R, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 1.72 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 97 K, 3.81 Total Sherpa Points
2. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 103.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88 K, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
3. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 249 AB, 16 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, .329 AVG, 48 R, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
4. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 213 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 11 SB, .319 AVG, 44 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
5. Jered Weaver (LAA, SP) - 90.2 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 74 K, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
6. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 256 AB, 5 HR, 29 RBI, 36 SB, .316 AVG, 45 R, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
7. Jason Bay (Bos, OF) - 227 AB, 17 HR, 61 RBI, 5 SB, .286 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
8. Joe Mauer (Min, C) - 152 AB, 13 HR, 40 RBI, 0 SB, .414 AVG, 35 R, 3.02 Total Sherpa Points
9. Mark Teixeira (NYY, 1B) - 229 AB, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB, .284 AVG, 44 R, 2.95 Total Sherpa Points
10. Evan Longoria (TB, 3B) - 226 AB, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 2 SB, .305 AVG, 42 R, 2.95 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

With just over a week gone in the 2008 baseball season the sky is officially falling. Those who drafted/bought C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Jason Bay, J.J. Putz, Robinson Cano etc., are wondering why these players are off to lousy starts. Those who drafted/bought Johnny Cueto, Nate McLouth, Mark Reynolds, Livan Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Kerry Woods, etc., are congratulating themselves on their foresight. So, is your team doing as well as expected? If not, what should you do now?

Predictably, many fantasy baseball columnists are now churning out (or, more likely, recycling from last year) columns on how 10 games is too small a sample size to draw conclusions, how you shouldn’t make any panic moves, blah, blah, blah. The more adventurous (or less lazy) among them actually develop lists of players off to hot/cold starts and offer their expert opinions on which players will continue to over/underwhelm, and which ones will “regress to the mean”. Very little of this is helpful to you in your effort to manage your fantasy team, and unless you’re reading these pieces for entertainment purposes, you’re better off ignoring them.

Put it another way - if these same players had the same results over a 10 game stretch in July or August, would you notice? Assuming you did, would you be concerned enough to make a change to your roster? Probably not. Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, we generally give more weight to events that take place at the very beginning of the season (aka “Tuffy Rhodes Syndrome“) or at the very end of the season (aka “Tom Glavine Syndrome“).

So, is there any reason to consider making trades this early in the season? Some experts advise fantasy team owners to sit on their hands until at least the end of May before hitting the “Submit Trade” button unless your roster is decimated by an injury. I disagree. In addition to injuries, there are at least two other reasons to explore potential trades even this early in the season: (1) To shore up weak categories, and (2) To take advantage of another team owner’s desire to make quick and sweeping changes.

First, let me explain what I mean by shoring up weak categories. Do not judge which categories you’re weak in by the results of the first 10 days of the season. Rather, go back to the analysis you did on your team immediately following your draft/auction. Trust the instincts you had at that time over the reaction you currently have now that 10 games are in the books. Before a draft/auction I set a goal to assemble a team that can finish in the top third in every category. If I can achieve that kind of balance, there’s a good chance I’ll finish at the top of my league. Of course, trades, free agent acquisitions, and waiver claims are also necessary to maintain/improve your team during the course of the season, but without a good draft/auction, you’re digging yourself a deep hole that’s almost impossible to climb out of. Identify your post-draft/auction weaknesses and address them as soon as you are able.

Regarding the second reason to make trades at this point in the season, there’s at least one owner in every league who seems to panic and make an early-season trade that ultimately hurts their team more than it helps. Don’t let that be you! Case in point - last year I saw someone who panicked after Garrett Atkins got off to a slow start, then traded Atkins and Johan Santana for Alex Rodriguez and the overachieving Boof Bonser. Not surprisingly, the owner who received Atkins and Santana finished much higher in the standings at the end of the year.

Not every trade will be that one-sided, nor should it be. I obviously want my team to be better after a trade than it was before the trade; however, I don’t want the other owner to have buyer’s remorse to the point where they’d never want to trade with me again. Here are my recommendations in executing a trade, particularly early in the season:

1. Assess your roster’s strengths and weaknesses. The earlier you are in the season, the more weight you should be giving a player’s preseason projected performance vs. his actual season-to-date performance. Of course, you need to be mindful of injuries and role changes (e.g. - everyday players who lose their jobs, newly-minted Closers, etc.)
2. Assess your leaguemates’ rosters’ strengths and weaknesses. The obvious goal in doing so is to find several potential trading partners (not just one!) whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses, and vice versa.
3. Send out trade feelers without making formal proposals. Initiate contact with specific owners. One of my fantasy sports pet peeves is owners who update their “Trading Block” page with a list of the categories they’re weak in, followed by a list of the players they’re willing to trade in order to improve their team (usually their weakest players). Sorry, I’m not trading you A-Rod and Carlos Zambrano for Pedro Feliz and Jose Contreras. As with most other things in life, you’re much more likely to get what you want if you ask for it rather than wait for it to come to you.
4. Sort through the responses to your trade feelers, then make a specific proposal where it makes sense to do so. Most trade talks will die after the previous step. If you do identify an owner who seems interested in discussing matters further, throw out an initial proposal. This should not be your “best offer”, but it should be good enough that the other owner isn’t insulted and actually has to give your offer some serious thought. It’s fine to pursue this stage with multiple owners simultaneously, even if you’re offering the same player(s) to several of them.
5. Negotiate. Expect the other owner(s) to counter your initial proposal - that’s part of the game. Keep a sense of humor about this - after all, we’re talking about fantasy sports here, not a life and death matter!
6. Assess your options. After some finite period of time you’ll get a good sense of whether owners are willing to pull the trigger on a deal or not. Trust your instincts here too - if your potential trading partner is constantly hedging or stalling, you’re probably better off moving on. Compare the impact of a trade to the impact of adding a player through a free agent bid or waiver wire claim.
7. Decide. While it may seem like a waste of time to come this far, then decide not to complete a deal, it’s not. The adage “sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make” applies just as much in the fantasy sports world as it does in the professional sports world. At the very worst you’ll receive a more accurate read on how your fellow owners value your players, as well as how they value their own players. You may unknowingly be sowing the seeds for a future trade. If you decide to complete a deal, don’t look back! If the player you’ve just traded away hits three home runs in a game or pitches a complete game shutout, let it go. You’re making the trade for the rest of the season, not just for the next game or two.

Until next time,

The Sherpa