The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 3.37 Sherpa Pts

2. Cliff Lee (140) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.34 Sherpa Pts

3. Ervin Santana (105) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.61 Sherpa Pts

4. Mike Mussina (90) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 200.1 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 150 K, 2.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 146 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 105 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts

5. James Shields (9) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 2.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 217 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 193 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

6. Mariano Rivera (12) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.37 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.59 Sherpa Pts

7. Jon Lester (55) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 210.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 155 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 137 K, 1.24 Sherpa Pts

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 167.2 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154 K, 2.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 209 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 207 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

9. A.J. Burnett (20) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 221.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 164 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 K, 2.30 Sherpa Pts

10. John Danks (125) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 195 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 159 K, 2.13 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 154 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 135 K, 0.44 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

39. CC Sabathia (1) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 122.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 123 K, 1.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

63. Erik Bedard (3) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 81 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72 K, 0.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 195 K, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

30. Javier Vazquez (4) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 208.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200 K, 1.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 210 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 K, 2.77 Sherpa Pts

27. John Lackey (5) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 163.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 173 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 147 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts

32. Jered Weaver (6) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 152 K, 1.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 182 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 161 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

48. Justin Verlander (7) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 201 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 163 K, 1.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 199 K, 2.69 Sherpa Pts

17. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 174.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 K, 1.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Every fantasy baseball owner dreams of “discovering” the next Johan Santana or Jake Peavy before the rest of their leaguemates. However, many owners forget that for every Cole Hamels who bursts onto the fantasy scene and makes an immediate and lasting impact, there are many more pitchers like Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, who disappoint their owners when their initial successes are tempered, if not outweighed altogether, by their struggles.

This season has been no exception. Johnny Cueto looked like the second coming of Bob Gibson in his first two starts; lately, he has looked more like the second coming of Kei Igawa, serving up in-game batting practice for his opponents’ hitting pleasure. Cueto will most likely be sent back to the minors shortly to gain some much-needed experience. Nick Adenhart has already been banished back to the minors after just three awful starts.

Meanwhile, this year’s early-season pitching surprises include below-the-radar types such as Edinson Volquez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Garrett Olson, and Vicente Padilla. What, if anything, do they all have in common? All except for Smith had MLB experience prior to this year. All except for Olson have switched organizations at least once in their career. All of them have made at least 10 starts in AAA. All of them are 23-24 years old, except for Padilla, who is 30.

Which of the pitchers in this group have the best chance at sustaining their success over the course of the season? I looked at Year-to-Date stats for all MLB starting pitchers, searching for those who have started at least 3 games, have a K/9 rate of at least 6, and a K/BB ratio of at least 2. I also looked at Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) to see whether “luck” played a factor in a pitcher’s success (or lack thereof). These screening criteria suggest that Volquez and Danks have the best chance at remaining successful, with Olson also being a possibility.

These criteria also turned up some veteran pitchers who may still be available in your league. Bronson Arroyo is off to an atrocious start due to a combination of bad luck (a .357 BAABIP) and a severe case of gopheritis (1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched). However, his 3-year averages suggest that he is a much better pitcher than that - if you have space on your bench, I would definitely take a flier on Arroyo rather than burn my waiver priority or Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) dollars on Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched even a single game at the AAA level yet. If you’re going to gamble on an unproven pitcher currently in the minors, you’re far better off betting on Homer Bailey (the sequel) than you are putting your fantasy chips on Kershaw.

Other veterans who should do more for your fantasy staff than the likes of Darrell Rasner, Aaron Laffey, et. al. - Chad Gaudin (when, not if, he rejoins Oakland’s rotation); Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Milwood, and Curt Schilling (when they return from the DL). I’d also take a chance on Hong-Chih Kuo if he joins the Dodgers’ rotation. Shawn Hill and Jose Contreras are two other options to consider if you currently have holes in your pitching staff. Don’t get me wrong - none of the pitchers on this list will be receiving Cy Young votes this season, but they all have the potential to be serviceable starters at the back of your fantasy team’s rotation.

However, keep in mind that experience is not always an advantage - if you want to add Livan Hernandez, Matt Chico, or Sidney Ponson to your fantasy pitching staff, you do so at your own peril - they are definitely the fantasy baseball equivalents of the Trojan horse, and you will get no sympathy from me if you choose to add any of them!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

One of the more challenging (and entertaining) aspects of managing a fantasy baseball roster is the ongoing need to juggle your roster. Perhaps you’re frantically scanning your league’s free agent/waiver wire for a short-term fill-in for your star player who just landed on the DL. Maybe you’re just looking to upgrade the fringes of your roster, or you’re seeking a player to fill a potential hole in your line-up that will be created if you pull the trigger on that trade you’re considering. Regardless of your motivation, the following is The Sherpa’s list of players who may still be available in your league.

I’m assuming that you’ve already missed out on the following list of players who may not have been on a roster at the beginning of the season: (NL) Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger; (AL) Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Rafael Betancourt, and Evan Longoria. If any of these players are still available in your league, stop reading this NOW, open a new browser session, go to your league’s website, and put in a claim for one or more of them . . . Done? Good, now feel free to review the names below, which are listed first by position, then by league (for the benefit of those of you who play in NL-only or AL-only leagues):

Catchers
AL: Shawn Riggans, Miguel Olivo, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Matthis, Gregg Zaun.

NL: Brian Schneider, Chris Iannetta, Ronny Paulino.

First Basemen
AL: Ben Broussard, Ross Gload, Kevin Millar, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey.

NL: Joey Votto, Dan Ortmeier.

Second Basemen
AL: Brendon Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Lopez.

NL: Eugenio Velez, Jayson Nix, Tad Iguchi, Ray Durham, Adam Kennedy.

Shortstops
AL: David Eckstein, Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, Erick Aybar.

NL: Cristian Guzman, Clint Barmes.

Third Basemen
AL: Mike Lamb, Jack Hannahan, Marco Scutaro.

NL: Jorge Cantu, Nomar Garciaparra, Jose Castillo.

Outfielders
AL: Carlos Quentin, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen, Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust (only in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG!), David Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Justin Ruggiano, Emil Brown, David DeJesus.

NL: Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Fred Lewis, Matt Diaz, Scott Hairston, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Jim Edmonds, John Bowker.

Designated Hitters
AL: Mike Sweeney

Starting Pitchers
AL: John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Dana Eveland, Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hammel.

NL: Micah Owings, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Wandy Rodriguez, Shawn Hill, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Justin Germano, Zach Duke, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa.

Relief Pitchers
AL: Scot Shields, Jeremy Accardo, Rafael Perez, Santiago Cassilla (the Pitcher formerly known as Jairo Garcia), Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mark Lowe.

NL: Heath Bell, Manny Acosta, Tony Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Jared Burton, Matt Lindstrom, Will Ohman, Royce Ring.

Some of these players have a bright future ahead of them, while some are no more than band-aids to be used for as short a time as possible, then discarded. The key point is that unless your league uses average-based stats only, you can’t afford to go any length of time, especially this early in the season, without accumulating At-Bats and Innings Pitched.

Finally, I’ve omitted the names of injured players who may be helpful in the near future, such as Al Reyes, who is quite likely the only Pitcher in MLB history to get tasered one day, then record a victory the next. He subsequently went on the Disabled List with an injury that’s apparently unrelated to his being tasered. Rumor has it the Cincinnati Bengals have already called to inquire about Reyes’ availability.

Until next time,

The Sherpa