The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Every fantasy baseball owner dreams of “discovering” the next Johan Santana or Jake Peavy before the rest of their leaguemates. However, many owners forget that for every Cole Hamels who bursts onto the fantasy scene and makes an immediate and lasting impact, there are many more pitchers like Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, who disappoint their owners when their initial successes are tempered, if not outweighed altogether, by their struggles.

This season has been no exception. Johnny Cueto looked like the second coming of Bob Gibson in his first two starts; lately, he has looked more like the second coming of Kei Igawa, serving up in-game batting practice for his opponents’ hitting pleasure. Cueto will most likely be sent back to the minors shortly to gain some much-needed experience. Nick Adenhart has already been banished back to the minors after just three awful starts.

Meanwhile, this year’s early-season pitching surprises include below-the-radar types such as Edinson Volquez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Garrett Olson, and Vicente Padilla. What, if anything, do they all have in common? All except for Smith had MLB experience prior to this year. All except for Olson have switched organizations at least once in their career. All of them have made at least 10 starts in AAA. All of them are 23-24 years old, except for Padilla, who is 30.

Which of the pitchers in this group have the best chance at sustaining their success over the course of the season? I looked at Year-to-Date stats for all MLB starting pitchers, searching for those who have started at least 3 games, have a K/9 rate of at least 6, and a K/BB ratio of at least 2. I also looked at Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) to see whether “luck” played a factor in a pitcher’s success (or lack thereof). These screening criteria suggest that Volquez and Danks have the best chance at remaining successful, with Olson also being a possibility.

These criteria also turned up some veteran pitchers who may still be available in your league. Bronson Arroyo is off to an atrocious start due to a combination of bad luck (a .357 BAABIP) and a severe case of gopheritis (1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched). However, his 3-year averages suggest that he is a much better pitcher than that - if you have space on your bench, I would definitely take a flier on Arroyo rather than burn my waiver priority or Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) dollars on Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched even a single game at the AAA level yet. If you’re going to gamble on an unproven pitcher currently in the minors, you’re far better off betting on Homer Bailey (the sequel) than you are putting your fantasy chips on Kershaw.

Other veterans who should do more for your fantasy staff than the likes of Darrell Rasner, Aaron Laffey, et. al. - Chad Gaudin (when, not if, he rejoins Oakland’s rotation); Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Milwood, and Curt Schilling (when they return from the DL). I’d also take a chance on Hong-Chih Kuo if he joins the Dodgers’ rotation. Shawn Hill and Jose Contreras are two other options to consider if you currently have holes in your pitching staff. Don’t get me wrong - none of the pitchers on this list will be receiving Cy Young votes this season, but they all have the potential to be serviceable starters at the back of your fantasy team’s rotation.

However, keep in mind that experience is not always an advantage - if you want to add Livan Hernandez, Matt Chico, or Sidney Ponson to your fantasy pitching staff, you do so at your own peril - they are definitely the fantasy baseball equivalents of the Trojan horse, and you will get no sympathy from me if you choose to add any of them!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

With just over a week gone in the 2008 baseball season the sky is officially falling. Those who drafted/bought C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Jason Bay, J.J. Putz, Robinson Cano etc., are wondering why these players are off to lousy starts. Those who drafted/bought Johnny Cueto, Nate McLouth, Mark Reynolds, Livan Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Kerry Woods, etc., are congratulating themselves on their foresight. So, is your team doing as well as expected? If not, what should you do now?

Predictably, many fantasy baseball columnists are now churning out (or, more likely, recycling from last year) columns on how 10 games is too small a sample size to draw conclusions, how you shouldn’t make any panic moves, blah, blah, blah. The more adventurous (or less lazy) among them actually develop lists of players off to hot/cold starts and offer their expert opinions on which players will continue to over/underwhelm, and which ones will “regress to the mean”. Very little of this is helpful to you in your effort to manage your fantasy team, and unless you’re reading these pieces for entertainment purposes, you’re better off ignoring them.

Put it another way - if these same players had the same results over a 10 game stretch in July or August, would you notice? Assuming you did, would you be concerned enough to make a change to your roster? Probably not. Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, we generally give more weight to events that take place at the very beginning of the season (aka “Tuffy Rhodes Syndrome“) or at the very end of the season (aka “Tom Glavine Syndrome“).

So, is there any reason to consider making trades this early in the season? Some experts advise fantasy team owners to sit on their hands until at least the end of May before hitting the “Submit Trade” button unless your roster is decimated by an injury. I disagree. In addition to injuries, there are at least two other reasons to explore potential trades even this early in the season: (1) To shore up weak categories, and (2) To take advantage of another team owner’s desire to make quick and sweeping changes.

First, let me explain what I mean by shoring up weak categories. Do not judge which categories you’re weak in by the results of the first 10 days of the season. Rather, go back to the analysis you did on your team immediately following your draft/auction. Trust the instincts you had at that time over the reaction you currently have now that 10 games are in the books. Before a draft/auction I set a goal to assemble a team that can finish in the top third in every category. If I can achieve that kind of balance, there’s a good chance I’ll finish at the top of my league. Of course, trades, free agent acquisitions, and waiver claims are also necessary to maintain/improve your team during the course of the season, but without a good draft/auction, you’re digging yourself a deep hole that’s almost impossible to climb out of. Identify your post-draft/auction weaknesses and address them as soon as you are able.

Regarding the second reason to make trades at this point in the season, there’s at least one owner in every league who seems to panic and make an early-season trade that ultimately hurts their team more than it helps. Don’t let that be you! Case in point - last year I saw someone who panicked after Garrett Atkins got off to a slow start, then traded Atkins and Johan Santana for Alex Rodriguez and the overachieving Boof Bonser. Not surprisingly, the owner who received Atkins and Santana finished much higher in the standings at the end of the year.

Not every trade will be that one-sided, nor should it be. I obviously want my team to be better after a trade than it was before the trade; however, I don’t want the other owner to have buyer’s remorse to the point where they’d never want to trade with me again. Here are my recommendations in executing a trade, particularly early in the season:

1. Assess your roster’s strengths and weaknesses. The earlier you are in the season, the more weight you should be giving a player’s preseason projected performance vs. his actual season-to-date performance. Of course, you need to be mindful of injuries and role changes (e.g. - everyday players who lose their jobs, newly-minted Closers, etc.)
2. Assess your leaguemates’ rosters’ strengths and weaknesses. The obvious goal in doing so is to find several potential trading partners (not just one!) whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses, and vice versa.
3. Send out trade feelers without making formal proposals. Initiate contact with specific owners. One of my fantasy sports pet peeves is owners who update their “Trading Block” page with a list of the categories they’re weak in, followed by a list of the players they’re willing to trade in order to improve their team (usually their weakest players). Sorry, I’m not trading you A-Rod and Carlos Zambrano for Pedro Feliz and Jose Contreras. As with most other things in life, you’re much more likely to get what you want if you ask for it rather than wait for it to come to you.
4. Sort through the responses to your trade feelers, then make a specific proposal where it makes sense to do so. Most trade talks will die after the previous step. If you do identify an owner who seems interested in discussing matters further, throw out an initial proposal. This should not be your “best offer”, but it should be good enough that the other owner isn’t insulted and actually has to give your offer some serious thought. It’s fine to pursue this stage with multiple owners simultaneously, even if you’re offering the same player(s) to several of them.
5. Negotiate. Expect the other owner(s) to counter your initial proposal - that’s part of the game. Keep a sense of humor about this - after all, we’re talking about fantasy sports here, not a life and death matter!
6. Assess your options. After some finite period of time you’ll get a good sense of whether owners are willing to pull the trigger on a deal or not. Trust your instincts here too - if your potential trading partner is constantly hedging or stalling, you’re probably better off moving on. Compare the impact of a trade to the impact of adding a player through a free agent bid or waiver wire claim.
7. Decide. While it may seem like a waste of time to come this far, then decide not to complete a deal, it’s not. The adage “sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make” applies just as much in the fantasy sports world as it does in the professional sports world. At the very worst you’ll receive a more accurate read on how your fellow owners value your players, as well as how they value their own players. You may unknowingly be sowing the seeds for a future trade. If you decide to complete a deal, don’t look back! If the player you’ve just traded away hits three home runs in a game or pitches a complete game shutout, let it go. You’re making the trade for the rest of the season, not just for the next game or two.

Until next time,

The Sherpa