The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

It’s just over 3 weeks into the 26-week baseball season, and some fantasy baseball owners are already hitting the panic button.

Which of the following moves, if any, would you make at this point in the season if you were playing in a mixed league that uses the standard 5 hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and 5 pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)?

• Drop Jose Guillen for Gabe Kapler
• Drop Edwin Encarnacion for Fred Lewis
• Drop Carlos Delgado for Nelson Figueroa
• Drop Francisco Liriano for Vicente Padilla

Amazingly, one owner in a 12-team league I play in has made all of those moves within the last week or so. I’ve never met him (we have an on-line draft), but I’d bet that he’s a Type A personality. He’s currently in 5th place in our league, but my guess is that he won’t be staying there for long if the above transactions are indicative of the way he’ll be managing his team this season. Vulture that I am, I swooped in and grabbed both Encarnacion (dropping Franklin Gutierrez) and Liriano (dropping Andy Sonnanstine) mere nanoseconds after I noticed their names on our league’s free agent list.

So, how should you evaluate a player’s unexpectedly hot/cold start in deciding whether to make a roster move? Let’s look at hitters first.

For hitters we’ll use Nate McLouth as an example of a fast-starter and David Ortiz as an example of a slow-starter. We’ll look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate = K/AB
2. Walk rate = BB/AB
3. Batting average on balls in play (aka BABIP) = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)

Let’s look at McLouth first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (80 AB) = 12.5%
   • 2007 (329 AB) = 23.4%
   • 2006 (270 AB) = 21.9%
   • 2005 (109 AB) = 18.3%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 11.3%
   • 2007 = 11.9%
   • 2006 = 6.7%
   • 2005 = 2.8%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .403
   • 2007 = .301
   • 2006 = .275
   • 2005 = .274

It appears that McLouth is developing more patience at that plate as his career progresses. His increased willingness to take a walk suggests that pitchers realize they now have to throw strikes to get him out. His keys to future success: can he maintain his lower strikeout rate (unlikely) and high BABIP (even more unlikely) over the course of a full season? If you own McLouth, I’d suggest seeing what other owners in your league might be willing to part with in a trade in exchange for McLouth. If you have the opportunity to address several shortcomings on your current roster by trading McLouth, I’d do it.

Now let’s look at Ortiz:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (79 AB) = 20.3%
   • 2007 (549 AB) = 18.8%
   • 2006 (558 AB) = 21.0%
   • 2005 (601 AB) = 20.6%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 13.9%
   • 2007 = 20.2%
   • 2006 = 21.3%
   • 2005 = 17.0%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .197
   • 2007 = .358
   • 2006 = .274
   • 2005 = .309

Ortiz’ lower walk rate this season suggests that he is swinging at a few more bad pitches than usual. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his historical averages, which suggests that he is putting more balls in play rather than striking out more. His keys to future success: can he increase his walk rate so that it’s in line with his historical rates (likely)? Will his luck improve on balls that he puts in play, resulting in a higher BABIP (even more likely)? If you own Ortiz, hang on - he’ll be fine; in fact, I’d be shocked if he finishes the season with a batting average lower than .280. Conversely, if you don’t currently own Ortiz, send out a trade feeler to his current owner and see whether you might be able to pry him loose for something less than full value.

I’ll perform a similar analysis on a pair of pitchers (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

One of the more challenging (and entertaining) aspects of managing a fantasy baseball roster is the ongoing need to juggle your roster. Perhaps you’re frantically scanning your league’s free agent/waiver wire for a short-term fill-in for your star player who just landed on the DL. Maybe you’re just looking to upgrade the fringes of your roster, or you’re seeking a player to fill a potential hole in your line-up that will be created if you pull the trigger on that trade you’re considering. Regardless of your motivation, the following is The Sherpa’s list of players who may still be available in your league.

I’m assuming that you’ve already missed out on the following list of players who may not have been on a roster at the beginning of the season: (NL) Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger; (AL) Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Rafael Betancourt, and Evan Longoria. If any of these players are still available in your league, stop reading this NOW, open a new browser session, go to your league’s website, and put in a claim for one or more of them . . . Done? Good, now feel free to review the names below, which are listed first by position, then by league (for the benefit of those of you who play in NL-only or AL-only leagues):

Catchers
AL: Shawn Riggans, Miguel Olivo, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Matthis, Gregg Zaun.

NL: Brian Schneider, Chris Iannetta, Ronny Paulino.

First Basemen
AL: Ben Broussard, Ross Gload, Kevin Millar, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey.

NL: Joey Votto, Dan Ortmeier.

Second Basemen
AL: Brendon Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Lopez.

NL: Eugenio Velez, Jayson Nix, Tad Iguchi, Ray Durham, Adam Kennedy.

Shortstops
AL: David Eckstein, Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, Erick Aybar.

NL: Cristian Guzman, Clint Barmes.

Third Basemen
AL: Mike Lamb, Jack Hannahan, Marco Scutaro.

NL: Jorge Cantu, Nomar Garciaparra, Jose Castillo.

Outfielders
AL: Carlos Quentin, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen, Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust (only in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG!), David Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Justin Ruggiano, Emil Brown, David DeJesus.

NL: Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Fred Lewis, Matt Diaz, Scott Hairston, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Jim Edmonds, John Bowker.

Designated Hitters
AL: Mike Sweeney

Starting Pitchers
AL: John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Dana Eveland, Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hammel.

NL: Micah Owings, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Wandy Rodriguez, Shawn Hill, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Justin Germano, Zach Duke, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa.

Relief Pitchers
AL: Scot Shields, Jeremy Accardo, Rafael Perez, Santiago Cassilla (the Pitcher formerly known as Jairo Garcia), Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mark Lowe.

NL: Heath Bell, Manny Acosta, Tony Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Jared Burton, Matt Lindstrom, Will Ohman, Royce Ring.

Some of these players have a bright future ahead of them, while some are no more than band-aids to be used for as short a time as possible, then discarded. The key point is that unless your league uses average-based stats only, you can’t afford to go any length of time, especially this early in the season, without accumulating At-Bats and Innings Pitched.

Finally, I’ve omitted the names of injured players who may be helpful in the near future, such as Al Reyes, who is quite likely the only Pitcher in MLB history to get tasered one day, then record a victory the next. He subsequently went on the Disabled List with an injury that’s apparently unrelated to his being tasered. Rumor has it the Cincinnati Bengals have already called to inquire about Reyes’ availability.

Until next time,

The Sherpa