The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With just over 25% of the 2008 season already in the books many experts are now putting forth their “Biggest Surprises” and “Biggest Disappointments” lists. I will do something similar in this post, but I will also give you the actual impact these players have had year-to-date in a league that uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories.

Let’s look at Hitters first. The Sherpa Point system gives each Hitter a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Hitters’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Lance Berkman leads the league with 16 HRs, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the HR category; a Hitter with 8 HRs gets a score of 0.50; a Hitter with 4 HRs gets a score of 0.25, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS)

The maximum Hitters’ score is equal to the number of hitting categories, and the maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further ado, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters:

1. Lance Berkman 4.13 (Preseason Projection was 2.80)
2. Chipper Jones 3.03 (2.58)
3. Dan Uggla 2.72 (1.89)
4. Josh Hamilton 2.70 (1.74)
5. Nate McLouth 2.69 (1.82)
6. Chase Utley 2.66 (3.22)
7. Hanley Ramirez 2.64 (3.41)
8. Albert Pujols 2.61 (3.32)
9. Carlos Quentin 2.55 (1.92)
10. Miguel Tejada 2.51 (2.38)

Berkman is obviously outperforming his projections by the largest amount so far (and will likely come back down to earth in short order), but Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, and Nate McLouth have probably offered the greatest value so far relative to where they were picked in drafts and the amount paid for them in auctions. Of the Top 10 shown here, only three (Utley, Ramirez, and Pujols) were among the Preseason Top 10 Hitters.

Many others who went in the first round of many drafts have not fared well in the early stages of the season. Consensus top-pick Alex Rodriguez (1.01 Year-to-Date vs. 3.84 Preseason Projection) and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (1.22 vs. 3.05) have missed significant time due to injuries. Other highly touted players who have disappointed their owners so far: Jose Reyes (1.73 vs. 2.98), David Wright (2.11 vs. 3.40), Ryan Braun (2.29 vs. 2.82), Miguel Cabrera (1.51 vs. 3.40), David Ortiz (1.88 vs. 3.44), Matt Holliday (2.17 vs. 3.56), Carl Crawford (2.18 vs. 3.19), Vladimir Guerrero (1.17 vs. 3.08), and Ryan Howard (1.08 vs. 3.07).

The discrepancy between a player’s Year-to-Date Sherpa Point score vs. his Preseason Projected Sherpa Point score can also be used as an indicator for constructing trade proposals. If you have a player on your team who is outperforming his projection by half a point or more, and you have several glaring weaknesses elsewhere on your roster, I would definitely be looking to sell high on that player. Conversely, if some of these players have disappointed other owners in your league, it may be worth inquiring about the possibility of buying low. If you can flip an overperforming player for an underperforming one, you have mastered the art of trading!

I’ll put together a similar list for Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

So, you’re in a 12-team 5×5 Mixed league snake draft, you pick towards the end of the first round, and Albert Pujols is still available. Do you bite?

I say no, unless you have the 12th pick and can immediately make your second selection. The adage about “high risk, high reward” doesn’t apply to fantasy baseball drafts - you must, must, must get a “sure thing” with your first-round pick. That means identifying players with known injuries in Spring Training and avoiding them like the plague in the first round. Before the news of the extent of Pujols’ injuries came out, I based my projections for him on the assumption that he would play 155 games this season. At that point I would have considered him with the 9th pick, factoring in the Position Scarcity analysis that underlies my player rankings. After the news came out, I scaled back my assumption to 145 games, and even that may be too optimistic. If Pujols’ health concerns persist and the Cardinals are as bad as I think they’ll be this year (i.e. - they’re mathematically eliminated in late August/early September), I think it’s definitely possible that the Cardinals and Pujols would mutually agree that it’s in their best long-term interests to cut short his season (ala Dwyane Wade).

So, why would I argue that Pujols is a good pick with the last pick in the first round or the first pick in the second round, but not a few picks before that? At that point I think the risk vs. reward scale tips back in favor of the reward, so I’d be willing to take that chance. I wouldn’t pair Pujols with Johan Santana - you need to get at least one “sure thing” Hitter in the first two rounds. However, if I could pair Pujols with a first-round pick of Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, or Jimmy Rollins, then I would consider the reward to outweigh the risk. But even if I did that, I wouldn’t necessarily commit to keeping Pujols for the whole season. Suppose Pujols gets off to a strong start, and the concerns about his injury subside temporarily. In that case I would look to package him with someone else on my team who’s off to an unsustainable start in return for two above-average players who help me in my weaker categories.

Until next time,

The Sherpa