The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 American League Hitters who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (AVG, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, & Runs Scored) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY (3.07 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.85 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +2.22)
2. Vlad Guerrero, OF, LAA (2.15 - 0.57 = +1.58)
3. Marcus Thames, OF, Det (1.98 - 0.62 =+1.36)
4. Matt Wieters, C, Bal (1.51 - 0.16 = +1.35)
5. David Ortiz, DH, Bos (1.89 - 0.67 = +1.24)
6. Matt Holliday, OF, Oak (2.90 - 1.77 = +1.13)
7. Josh Anderson, OF, Det (1.82 - 0.73 = +1.09)
8. Gordon Beckham, 2B, CWS (1.21 - 0.13 = +1.08)
9. Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Tex (1.76 - 0.74 = +1.02)
10. Pat Burrell, OF, TB (1.38 - 0.42 = +0.96)

Here are 10 American League Hitters who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Marco Scutaro, SS, Tor (1.34 - 2.16 = -0.82)
2. Adam Kennedy, 2B, Oak (0.66 - 1.33 = -0.67)
3. Brandon Inge, C/3B, Det (1.52 - 2.18 = -0.66)
4. Aaron Hill, 2B, Tor (1.90 - 2.53 = -0.63)
5. Scott Rolen, 3B, Tor (1.25 - 1.84 = -0.59)
6. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Cle (2.27 - 2.81 = -0.54)
7. Jason Bartlett, SS, TB (2.07 - 2.52 = -0.52)
8. Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS, TB (1.92 - 2.35 = -0.43)
9. Adam Lind, OF, Tor (2.11 - 2.46 = -0.35)
10. Melky Cabrera, OF, NYY (1.11 - 1.42 = -0.31)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at NL Hitters in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Remember the circus event that took place just a couple of months ago when Scott Boras and the Los Angeles Dodgers staged one of the strangest negotiations in the history of free agency?  That all seems like a distant memory now.  The 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez today for the use of a banned substance tore through the baseball world like a tornado, leaving many fantasy baseball team owners to pick up the pieces and wonder “what next?”.

If you’re unfortunate enough to play in a league that has no Bench or DL spots, you have little choice but to let Manny go or find another owner who’s willing to give you pennies on the dollar in a trade - you can’t afford two months of goose eggs from a roster spot if you hope to win your league’s championship this year.

If a Bench or DL spot is an option in your league, then your team’s situation isn’t nearly as dire.  However, there’s still the matter of replacing Manny’s name in your lineup.  It goes without saying that you won’t be able to come anywhere near replacing Manny’s production in your lineup unless you get lottery ticket lucky with a rookie call-up like Matt LaPorta or Nolan Reimold (I assume that they’re already taken if they’re eligible in your league).

If your league has a DH/Utility spot, and you’re fortunate enough to have an outfielder in that spot currently, then you’re also relatively fortunate in that you have the entire free agent hitter pool to consider for a Manny replacement.  If not, then you’ll have to confine your search to the available pool of outfielders.

The following are ranked lists of outfielders who may be available in your league, depending of course on the type of league you play in (NL-only vs. Mixed) and your league’s particular roster requirements.  Both sets of rankings assume the usual 5 hitting categories (HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG).  These remainder-of-season rankings are taken from the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa In-season Updates.  Since each player is given a maximum score of 1.00 in each of the categories, the maximum possible score is 5.00

Mixed League

1. Josh Anderson (2.18)
2. Ben Francisco (1.75)
3. Aaron Rowand (1.72)
4. Michael Cuddyer (1.56)
5. Scott Hairston (1.51)
6. Franklin Gutierrez (1.48)
7. Ryan Church (1.45)
8. Ken Griffey Jr (1.38)
9. Juan Pierre (1.31)
10. Juan Rivera (1.29)
11. Gary Matthews Jr (1.27)
12. Wladimir Balentien (1.23)
13. Chris Dickerson (1.21)
14. Brandon Moss (1.14)
15. Eric Hinske (0.91)
16. Omar Infante (0.82)
17. Micah Hoffpauir (0.72)
18. Austin Kearns (0.53)
19. Lou Montanez (0.41)
20. Laynce Nix (0.21)
21. Xavier Paul (0.09)

NL-only (I’m assuming that Rowand, Hairston, Church, and Pierre would be unavailble in this format)

1. Chris Dickerson (1.26)
2. Brandon Moss (1.18)
3. Eric Hinske (0.96)
4. Omar Infante (0.83)
5. Micah Hoffpauir (0.73)
6. Austin Kearns (0.56)
7. Laynce Nix (0.21)
8. Xavier Paul (0.10)

Note that since the players’ scores in each of the five categories are based on their forecasted result in that category relative to the league leader’s (among eligible players), the scores will vary slightly between a mixed league and an NL-only league.

Category needs should also factor into your decision; just keep in mind that you’re trying to minimize the damage rather than find someone capable or replicating Manny’s stats (it’s highly unlikely such a person exists on your league’s waiver wire)!

Then again, if he’s a fan of irony maybe Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has Barry Bonds’ phone # . . . . . . nah . . .

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com