The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

On Saturday, March 24th, I had the privilege of participating in my second Tout Wars mixed league auction (here’s the spreadsheet tracking that auction).  Rather than give a player-by-player recap of my auction (which would interest no one besides myself, and is almost a month out-of-date at this point), here are some observations I’d like to share based both on this auction and a number of others I participated in this spring:

• After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions.  Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened.  Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.

• Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing.  When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase.  However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50.  There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark.  So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?

• Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players.  If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated.  However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis.  I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.

• Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers.  If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.

• Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers.  Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”.  Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree.  However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.

• Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so.  Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis).  Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel).  Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko).  Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn).  I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.

• Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources.  Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”.  The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class.  You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.

• Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better.  Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.

• Buy stats, not players.  Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction.  Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction.  I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points.  Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.

All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is).  How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size?  Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season?  Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?

Until next time!

The Sherpa

Scott
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With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

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This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 37) - KC, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Tim Lincecum (4) - SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
3. Javier Vazquez (45) - ATL, SP
   • Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts
4. Felix Hernandez (50) -SEA, SP
   • Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
5. Dan Haren (7) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
6. Roy Halladay (3) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
7. Chris Carpenter (285) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.35 Sherpa Pts
8. Adam Wainwright (13) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
9. CC Sabathia (2) - NYY, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.68 Sherpa Pts
10. Justin Verlander (73) - DET, SP
    • Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

As was the case last year, the most interesting observation from my perspective is the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

27. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 1.92 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.72 Sherpa Pts

63. Jake Peavy (5) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 101.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

402. Brandon Webb (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

65. Cole Hamels (9) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.71 Sherpa Pts

74. Rich Harden (9) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.22 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts

69. Roy Oswalt (10) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.53 Sherpa Pts

We’ll soon be starting work here in Sherpaville on our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 24 HR, then a player with 8 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
3. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 123.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 106 K, 3.18 Total Sherpa Points
4. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
6. Edwin Jackson (Det, SP) - 121.2 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 97 K, 3.09 Total Sherpa Points
7. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 285 AB, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .305 AVG, 56 R, 3.05 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Verlander (Det, SP) - 122.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 149 K, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
9. Josh Beckett (Bos, SP) - 121.0 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 110 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jered Weaver (LAA, SP) - 120.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 104 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 American League Pitchers who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. John Lackey, SP, LAA (1.74 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.00 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.74)
2. CC Sabathia, SP, NYY (3.20 - 1.86 = +1.34)
3. Joakim Soria, RP, KC (2.08 - 0.83 =+1.25)
4. Ervin Santana, SP, LAA (0.70 - -0.42 = +1.12)
5. Scott Kazmir, SP, TB (0.45 - -0.45 = +0.90)
6. Rich Hill, SP, Bal (1.15 - 0.29 = +0.86)
7. Francisco Liriano, SP, Min (0.83 - 0.02 = +0.81)
8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Bos (2.31 - 1.51 = +0.80)
9. Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY (2.21 - 1.43 = +0.78)
10. Joba Chamberlain, SP, NYY (1.59 - 0.86 = +0.73)

Here are 10 American League Pitchers who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Edwin Jackson, SP, Det (1.21 - 2.50 = -1.29)
2. Kevin Millwood, SP, Tex (1.38 - 2.30 = -0.92)
3. Justin Verlander, SP, Det (2.00 - 2.58 = -0.58)
4. Scott Richmond, SP, Tor (0.80 - 1.36 = -0.56)
5. Jason Vargas, SP, Sea (0.32 - 0.88 = -0.56)
6. Drew Bailey, RP, Oak (1.35 - 1.90 = -0.55)
7. David Aardsma, RP, Sea (1.26 - 1.79 = -0.53)
8. J.P. Howell, RP, TB (0.79 - 1.30 = -0.51)
9. Scott Feldman, SP, Tex (0.61 - 1.12 = -0.51)
10. Josh Outman, SP, Oak (0.87 - 1.34 = -0.47)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at NL Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

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This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 3.37 Sherpa Pts

2. Cliff Lee (140) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.34 Sherpa Pts

3. Ervin Santana (105) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.61 Sherpa Pts

4. Mike Mussina (90) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 200.1 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 150 K, 2.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 146 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 105 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts

5. James Shields (9) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 2.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 217 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 193 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

6. Mariano Rivera (12) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.37 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.59 Sherpa Pts

7. Jon Lester (55) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 210.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 155 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 137 K, 1.24 Sherpa Pts

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 167.2 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154 K, 2.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 209 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 207 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

9. A.J. Burnett (20) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 221.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 164 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 K, 2.30 Sherpa Pts

10. John Danks (125) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 195 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 159 K, 2.13 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 154 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 135 K, 0.44 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

39. CC Sabathia (1) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 122.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 123 K, 1.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

63. Erik Bedard (3) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 81 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72 K, 0.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 195 K, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

30. Javier Vazquez (4) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 208.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200 K, 1.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 210 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 K, 2.77 Sherpa Pts

27. John Lackey (5) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 163.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 173 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 147 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts

32. Jered Weaver (6) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 152 K, 1.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 182 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 161 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

48. Justin Verlander (7) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 201 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 163 K, 1.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 199 K, 2.69 Sherpa Pts

17. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 174.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 K, 1.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.

Until next time,

The Sherpa