The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Last night the draft for the inaugural Bloomberg Fantasy Baseball Challenge was held on RealTime Sports’ website.  This is a 5×5 league which includes 6 fantasy baseball enthusiasts, who were chosen from among ~300 applicants, and 6 industry experts.  The league uses the usual 5×5 scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util), 9 pitchers, and a 5-player Bench. 

Here are the 12 participants for 2010 in the order they drafted (affiliation noted for industry experts):

1. Lawr Michaels - Mastersball.com
2. Ron Shandler - BaseballHQ.com
3. Martha Mitchell
4. Rob Reed
5. Harold Reynolds - MLB Network
6. Tim Heaney - KFFL.com
7. Jonathan Levey
8. David Roher
9. Paul Farrell
10. Derek VanRiper - Rotowire.com
11. Satoshi Kii
12. Steve Gardner - USA Today

Here’s a link to the RealTime Fantasy Sports website’s league page that details each team’s roster.

I used the 2010 projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of last night’s draft:

Projections by Team (in draft order) - Hitting Categories

Owner	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	SB	R
Michaels	7,846	.288	261	1,145	194	1,238
Shandler	7,626	.285	270	1,080	195	1,189
Mitchell	7,399	.278	292	1,092	198	1,114
Reed	7,986	.283	286	1,126	227	1,214
Reynolds	7.665	.276	292	1,126	142	1,150
Heaney	7,618	.284	296	1,167	219	1,211
Levey	7,630	.288	280	1,172	227	1,207
Roher	7,558	.288	265	1,106	194	1,182
Farrell	7,748	.278	312	1,211	139	1,175
VanRiper	7,622	.285	272	1,142	179	1,198
Kii	7,086	.281	273	1,079	201	1,097
Gardner	7,506	.282	257	1,059	188	1,144

  
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Pitching Categories

Owner	IP	W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
Michaels	1,369	83	98	3.62	1.20	1,167
Shandler	1,336	83	36	3.98	1.26	1,314
Mitchell	1,312	80	90	3.72	1.27	1,244
Reed	1,221	73	88	3.55	1.21	1,179
Reynolds	1,310	80	81	3.76	1.30	1,067
Heaney	1,409	82	59	3.79	1.26	1,201
Levey	1,485	90	68	3.81	1.23	1,185
Roher	1,400	84	71	3.70	1.23	1,293
Farrell	1,370	85	76	3.60	1.22	1,217
VanRiper	1,469	90	66	4.07	1.30	1,238
Kii	1,312	77	62	3.57	1.25	1,239
Gardner	1,406	89	58	3.75	1.24	1,161

 

 

Projected Standings (in order of finish)

Owner	H Pts	P Pts	Total Pts
Levey	49	33	82
Michaels	38	42	80
Reed	42	38	80
Farrell	33	44	77
Roher	31	43	74
Heaney	48	23	71
VanRiper	32	27	59
Mitchell	25	34	59
Shandler	30	25	55
Kii	22	32	54
Gardner	14	27	41
Reynolds	22	19	41

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an independent observer rather than a participant.  Hopefully, all 12 of the participants came out of the draft feeling good about their team.  Hope springs eternal before the actual games begin.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

 

• At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.

• There appeared to be a glitch in the draft software.  Occasionally, a drafted player seemingly destined for a given team’s bench was placed in the starting lineup over a player with greater fantasy value.  Apparently, these decisions were based on alphabetical order or something equally irrelevant (e.g. - just a hunch, but I doubt Tim Heaney would choose to start Kelly Shoppach at Utility and keep Jayson Werth on the bench).  I did my best to account for these discrepancies in order to optimize each team’s expected results.

• Some participants, especially Reed, Kii, and Mitchell, took more chances than others in drafting talented players who are either injured or likely to start the season in the minors.  Of course, in the actual contest, the owners will replace the players in the lineup, which will improve their results in at least the counting stat categories, but I did not attempt to adjust for this factor.  Thus, my projected results for these owners may be a bit conservative.

• Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades (if the league decides to allow them), free agent pickups, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of last night’s draft.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds - good luck to all the participants!

The Sherpa

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One of the more challenging (and entertaining) aspects of managing a fantasy baseball roster is the ongoing need to juggle your roster. Perhaps you’re frantically scanning your league’s free agent/waiver wire for a short-term fill-in for your star player who just landed on the DL. Maybe you’re just looking to upgrade the fringes of your roster, or you’re seeking a player to fill a potential hole in your line-up that will be created if you pull the trigger on that trade you’re considering. Regardless of your motivation, the following is The Sherpa’s list of players who may still be available in your league.

I’m assuming that you’ve already missed out on the following list of players who may not have been on a roster at the beginning of the season: (NL) Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger; (AL) Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Rafael Betancourt, and Evan Longoria. If any of these players are still available in your league, stop reading this NOW, open a new browser session, go to your league’s website, and put in a claim for one or more of them . . . Done? Good, now feel free to review the names below, which are listed first by position, then by league (for the benefit of those of you who play in NL-only or AL-only leagues):

Catchers
AL: Shawn Riggans, Miguel Olivo, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Matthis, Gregg Zaun.

NL: Brian Schneider, Chris Iannetta, Ronny Paulino.

First Basemen
AL: Ben Broussard, Ross Gload, Kevin Millar, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey.

NL: Joey Votto, Dan Ortmeier.

Second Basemen
AL: Brendon Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Lopez.

NL: Eugenio Velez, Jayson Nix, Tad Iguchi, Ray Durham, Adam Kennedy.

Shortstops
AL: David Eckstein, Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, Erick Aybar.

NL: Cristian Guzman, Clint Barmes.

Third Basemen
AL: Mike Lamb, Jack Hannahan, Marco Scutaro.

NL: Jorge Cantu, Nomar Garciaparra, Jose Castillo.

Outfielders
AL: Carlos Quentin, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen, Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust (only in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG!), David Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Justin Ruggiano, Emil Brown, David DeJesus.

NL: Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Fred Lewis, Matt Diaz, Scott Hairston, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Jim Edmonds, John Bowker.

Designated Hitters
AL: Mike Sweeney

Starting Pitchers
AL: John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Dana Eveland, Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hammel.

NL: Micah Owings, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Wandy Rodriguez, Shawn Hill, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Justin Germano, Zach Duke, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa.

Relief Pitchers
AL: Scot Shields, Jeremy Accardo, Rafael Perez, Santiago Cassilla (the Pitcher formerly known as Jairo Garcia), Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mark Lowe.

NL: Heath Bell, Manny Acosta, Tony Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Jared Burton, Matt Lindstrom, Will Ohman, Royce Ring.

Some of these players have a bright future ahead of them, while some are no more than band-aids to be used for as short a time as possible, then discarded. The key point is that unless your league uses average-based stats only, you can’t afford to go any length of time, especially this early in the season, without accumulating At-Bats and Innings Pitched.

Finally, I’ve omitted the names of injured players who may be helpful in the near future, such as Al Reyes, who is quite likely the only Pitcher in MLB history to get tasered one day, then record a victory the next. He subsequently went on the Disabled List with an injury that’s apparently unrelated to his being tasered. Rumor has it the Cincinnati Bengals have already called to inquire about Reyes’ availability.

Until next time,

The Sherpa