The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging.  Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.

The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:

1. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter.  He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
2.  Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power.  Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
3. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
4. Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
5. Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too.  If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
6. Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded.  The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
7. Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez).  Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation.  He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
9. Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start.  While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season.  If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
10. Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall.  If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
11. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
12. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
13. J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them.  An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
14. Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up.  However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
16. Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.

I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.

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Remember the circus event that took place just a couple of months ago when Scott Boras and the Los Angeles Dodgers staged one of the strangest negotiations in the history of free agency?  That all seems like a distant memory now.  The 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez today for the use of a banned substance tore through the baseball world like a tornado, leaving many fantasy baseball team owners to pick up the pieces and wonder “what next?”.

If you’re unfortunate enough to play in a league that has no Bench or DL spots, you have little choice but to let Manny go or find another owner who’s willing to give you pennies on the dollar in a trade - you can’t afford two months of goose eggs from a roster spot if you hope to win your league’s championship this year.

If a Bench or DL spot is an option in your league, then your team’s situation isn’t nearly as dire.  However, there’s still the matter of replacing Manny’s name in your lineup.  It goes without saying that you won’t be able to come anywhere near replacing Manny’s production in your lineup unless you get lottery ticket lucky with a rookie call-up like Matt LaPorta or Nolan Reimold (I assume that they’re already taken if they’re eligible in your league).

If your league has a DH/Utility spot, and you’re fortunate enough to have an outfielder in that spot currently, then you’re also relatively fortunate in that you have the entire free agent hitter pool to consider for a Manny replacement.  If not, then you’ll have to confine your search to the available pool of outfielders.

The following are ranked lists of outfielders who may be available in your league, depending of course on the type of league you play in (NL-only vs. Mixed) and your league’s particular roster requirements.  Both sets of rankings assume the usual 5 hitting categories (HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG).  These remainder-of-season rankings are taken from the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa In-season Updates.  Since each player is given a maximum score of 1.00 in each of the categories, the maximum possible score is 5.00

Mixed League

1. Josh Anderson (2.18)
2. Ben Francisco (1.75)
3. Aaron Rowand (1.72)
4. Michael Cuddyer (1.56)
5. Scott Hairston (1.51)
6. Franklin Gutierrez (1.48)
7. Ryan Church (1.45)
8. Ken Griffey Jr (1.38)
9. Juan Pierre (1.31)
10. Juan Rivera (1.29)
11. Gary Matthews Jr (1.27)
12. Wladimir Balentien (1.23)
13. Chris Dickerson (1.21)
14. Brandon Moss (1.14)
15. Eric Hinske (0.91)
16. Omar Infante (0.82)
17. Micah Hoffpauir (0.72)
18. Austin Kearns (0.53)
19. Lou Montanez (0.41)
20. Laynce Nix (0.21)
21. Xavier Paul (0.09)

NL-only (I’m assuming that Rowand, Hairston, Church, and Pierre would be unavailble in this format)

1. Chris Dickerson (1.26)
2. Brandon Moss (1.18)
3. Eric Hinske (0.96)
4. Omar Infante (0.83)
5. Micah Hoffpauir (0.73)
6. Austin Kearns (0.56)
7. Laynce Nix (0.21)
8. Xavier Paul (0.10)

Note that since the players’ scores in each of the five categories are based on their forecasted result in that category relative to the league leader’s (among eligible players), the scores will vary slightly between a mixed league and an NL-only league.

Category needs should also factor into your decision; just keep in mind that you’re trying to minimize the damage rather than find someone capable or replicating Manny’s stats (it’s highly unlikely such a person exists on your league’s waiver wire)!

Then again, if he’s a fan of irony maybe Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has Barry Bonds’ phone # . . . . . . nah . . .

The Sherpa

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