The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

So it’s finally happened. Jay Bruce, who is less than half Barack Obama’s age and less than one-third of John McCain’s age, but has seemingly generated more conversation in 2008 (at least among fantasy baseball enthusiasts) than Obama and McCain combined, has finally landed in Cincinnati.

Stripping away the hype, what does this mean for those with the foresight to stash Bruce at the beginning of the season or the waiver wire priority to claim him during the season? Will he make the immediate impact that rookies Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence did after the call-ups during the 2007 season? Will he disappoint the way that Alex Gordon did during his rookie season (also 2007)? Or, as the cliche goes, does the true answer lie somewhere in the middle?

Based on his minor league rate stats, with a few subjective adjustments, here’s what I think you can realistically expect from Bruce for the rest of this season:

• 409 AB
• 62 R
• 114 H
• 30 2B
• 5 3B
• 16 HR
• 68 RBI
• 12 SB
• 36 BB
• 115 SO
• .279 AVG
• .330 OBP
• .494 SLG

So, where would these results place Bruce among his more established peers? The Sherpa Point scale assigns a score of 1.00 to the player with the top score in each category; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their result in that category compared to the league leader’s. For example, if the league leader is projected to hit 50 HRs, a batter projected to hit 40 HRs would receive 0.80 Sherpa HR pts, a batter projected to hit 25 HRs would receive 0.50 Sherpa HR pts, etc. For average-based categories such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS, a proxy statistic is used. Thus, if you play in a league that uses 5 offensive categories, the maximum Hitter’s Sherpa Points score would be 5.00.

Pro-rating my Preseason Projections for all Hitters, I project that in a league using the 5 standard offensive categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and R) Bruce would score 2.38 Sherpa Points. This would place Bruce roughly 20th overall, comparable to the projected Sherpa Point scores for fellow Outfielders Chris Young and B.J. Upton. Obviously, their Sherpa Point scores will vary by category (in some cases quite a bit), but on an overall basis, that’s where I believe Bruce’s value will fall. For the sake of comparison, the Top 3 Outfielders (based on Preseason Projected Sherpa Points) were Matt Holliday (3.56), Carl Crawford (3.19), and Vlad Guerrero (3.08).

So while Bruce should be a strong contributor to your fantasy team if you’re fortunate enough to have him, he will not carry you to your league’s championship by himself. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s eventually a Top 5 Outfielder from a fantasy perspective, but that’s highly unlikely to happen in 2008. As long as you temper your expectations, you will not be disappointed.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

With just over 25% of the 2008 season already in the books many experts are now putting forth their “Biggest Surprises” and “Biggest Disappointments” lists. I will do something similar in this post, but I will also give you the actual impact these players have had year-to-date in a league that uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories.

Let’s look at Hitters first. The Sherpa Point system gives each Hitter a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Hitters’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Lance Berkman leads the league with 16 HRs, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the HR category; a Hitter with 8 HRs gets a score of 0.50; a Hitter with 4 HRs gets a score of 0.25, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS)

The maximum Hitters’ score is equal to the number of hitting categories, and the maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further ado, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters:

1. Lance Berkman 4.13 (Preseason Projection was 2.80)
2. Chipper Jones 3.03 (2.58)
3. Dan Uggla 2.72 (1.89)
4. Josh Hamilton 2.70 (1.74)
5. Nate McLouth 2.69 (1.82)
6. Chase Utley 2.66 (3.22)
7. Hanley Ramirez 2.64 (3.41)
8. Albert Pujols 2.61 (3.32)
9. Carlos Quentin 2.55 (1.92)
10. Miguel Tejada 2.51 (2.38)

Berkman is obviously outperforming his projections by the largest amount so far (and will likely come back down to earth in short order), but Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, and Nate McLouth have probably offered the greatest value so far relative to where they were picked in drafts and the amount paid for them in auctions. Of the Top 10 shown here, only three (Utley, Ramirez, and Pujols) were among the Preseason Top 10 Hitters.

Many others who went in the first round of many drafts have not fared well in the early stages of the season. Consensus top-pick Alex Rodriguez (1.01 Year-to-Date vs. 3.84 Preseason Projection) and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (1.22 vs. 3.05) have missed significant time due to injuries. Other highly touted players who have disappointed their owners so far: Jose Reyes (1.73 vs. 2.98), David Wright (2.11 vs. 3.40), Ryan Braun (2.29 vs. 2.82), Miguel Cabrera (1.51 vs. 3.40), David Ortiz (1.88 vs. 3.44), Matt Holliday (2.17 vs. 3.56), Carl Crawford (2.18 vs. 3.19), Vladimir Guerrero (1.17 vs. 3.08), and Ryan Howard (1.08 vs. 3.07).

The discrepancy between a player’s Year-to-Date Sherpa Point score vs. his Preseason Projected Sherpa Point score can also be used as an indicator for constructing trade proposals. If you have a player on your team who is outperforming his projection by half a point or more, and you have several glaring weaknesses elsewhere on your roster, I would definitely be looking to sell high on that player. Conversely, if some of these players have disappointed other owners in your league, it may be worth inquiring about the possibility of buying low. If you can flip an overperforming player for an underperforming one, you have mastered the art of trading!

I’ll put together a similar list for Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa