The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 National League Hitters who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (AVG, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, & Runs Scored) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Alfonso Soriano, OF, ChC (2.79 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 1.50 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.29)
2. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col (1.33 - 0.20 = +1.13)
3. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phi (2.18 - 1.06 =+1.12)
4. Geovany Soto, C, ChC (1.55 - 0.50 = +1.05)
5. Chris Coghlan, 3B/OF, Fla (1.81 - 0.77 = +1.04)
6. Lance Berkman, 1B, Hou (2.53 - 1.55 = +0.98)
7. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pit (1.68 - 0.72 = +0.96)
8. Ryan Ludwick, OF, StL (2.17 - 1.22 = +0.95)
9. Brian Giles, OF, SD (1.04 - 0.10 = +0.94)
10. Everth Cabrera, SS, SD (1.05 - 0.15 = +0.90)

Here are 10 National League Hitters who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Orlando Hudson, 2B, LAD (1.41 - 2.18 = -0.77)
2. Raul Ibanez, OF, Phi (2.49 - 3.21 = -0.72)
3. Justin Upton, OF, Ari (2.00 - 2.65 = -0.65)
4. Todd Helton, 1B, Col (1.80 - 2.26 = -0.46)
5. Clint Barmes, 2B/SS, Col (1.50 - 1.90 = -0.40)
6. Pablo Sandoval, C/1B/3B, SF (1.67 - 2.03 = -0.36)
7. Gary Sheffield, OF, NYM (1.14 - 1.40 = -26)
8. Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B, Ari (2.38 - 2.62 = -0.24)
9. Nick Johnson, 1B, Was (1.59 - 1.82 = -0.23)
10. Michael Bourn, OF, Hou (1.86 - 2.08 = -0.22)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

An old baseball cliche describes the season as “a marathon, not a sprint”, and for most of the season, that comparison is appropriate. The baseball season has 26 weeks, a marathon is just over 26 miles, and surviving both requires a combination of pacing and persistence.

However, that comparison goes out the window in the final week of the baseball season for those managing a fantasy baseball team. With just a handful of games left on the schedule, there’s no time left to “pace yourself”. Those in head-to-head leagues are slugging it out for the league championship, a consolation round, or just for pride. Those in rotisserie leagues are scouring the standings, looking for opportunities to eke out a final precious point or two.

Regardless of which format your league uses, here are some helpful tips to keep in mind heading into the final week of the season:

1. Beware of injuries, especially to star players. If you still have the likes of Hideki Matsui, Carlos Guillen, or Yunel Escobar in your lineup (just to name a few), remove them from your lineup immediately! Don’t expect the Marlins to rush Hanley Ramirez back either. Teams will often shut down injured players early, especially if they’re out of the standings. Don’t get stuck with one of them in your lineup for the last week, or you may spend the entire off-season regretting it.
2. Maximize Games Played and Innings Pitched. If you’re trying to decide between two players of roughly similar ability for a spot in your final week’s lineup, remember to consider any differences in games played. Manny Ramirez may post better fantasy numbers over the course of a season than Carlos Beltran, but if the Mets play seven games in the final week of the season and the Dodgers play six, I’d go with Beltran in leagues that require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week. The same goes for Middle Relievers and Closers.
3. Be careful in selecting 2-start Pitchers. Johan Santana is listed as a two-start pitcher this week. That means he has to be in your weekly lineup, right? Maybe not. Of course, I’d still rather have one start from Johan Santana than two starts from most pitchers in the league. However, if I’m chasing Wins or Strikeouts at this point and am fairly locked into a place in the ERA and WHIP categories, I’d be looking for other options. If the Mets are already locked into a playoff spot (either as the division winner or the wild card) heading into the weekend, there’s a good chance they’ll skip Santana’s second start so that he’ll be available to pitch twice in a five-game playoff series. Remember, MLB teams could care less about how their decisions impact our fantasy rosters!
4. Keep up to date on recent Closer changes. Maybe the other owners in your league have stopped paying attention if they’re no longer in contention. Maybe the other owners are all happy with their current Closers. Whatever the reason, check to see whether recently annointed Closers such as Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom are available in your league.
5. Assume that playoff-bound teams will rest players. It’s a safe bet that teams like the Cubs and Angels will go easy on their Starting Pitchers and give their everyday players at least one or two games off during the last week of the season since they have nothing to play for. Since both these teams have seven games this week, I wouldn’t count on the everyday players starting more than five games.
6. Start players on teams that still have something to play for. The Mets are Exhibit A here, since they’re still in the running for both their division crown and the NL wild card. The Diamondbacks are another team with 7 games this week that still has something to play for. Although the Brewers have just 6 games this week, the Mets’ bullpen figures to keep them in the wild card race at least until the start of the weekend. The White Sox/Twins race will likely be decided before the weekend, as will the Rays/Red Sox race, so expect those teams to rest players once the races are decided.
7. Watch for other fantasy teams’ discards. The final week of the season usually gives rise to some interesting, if not downright questionable moves on the part of fantasy team owners. The vast majority of these moves are not the result of collusion; rather, they are the result of fantasy team owners assessing which categories they can still make up ground in, then acting on that assessment. However, this can create some great opportunities for the vigilant owner. Perhaps another team has dropped a Stolen Base guy or two (e.g. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn) in an effort to pick up a few more Home Runs the last week of the season. If you need Stolen Bases, be prepared to pounce.

Good luck the rest of the way!

The Sherpa