The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

 

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 3.37 Sherpa Pts

2. Cliff Lee (140) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.34 Sherpa Pts

3. Ervin Santana (105) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.61 Sherpa Pts

4. Mike Mussina (90) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 200.1 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 150 K, 2.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 146 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 105 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts

5. James Shields (9) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 2.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 217 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 193 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

6. Mariano Rivera (12) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.37 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.59 Sherpa Pts

7. Jon Lester (55) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 210.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 155 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 137 K, 1.24 Sherpa Pts

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 167.2 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154 K, 2.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 209 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 207 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

9. A.J. Burnett (20) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 221.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 164 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 K, 2.30 Sherpa Pts

10. John Danks (125) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 195 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 159 K, 2.13 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 154 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 135 K, 0.44 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

39. CC Sabathia (1) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 122.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 123 K, 1.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

63. Erik Bedard (3) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 81 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72 K, 0.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 195 K, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

30. Javier Vazquez (4) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 208.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200 K, 1.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 210 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 K, 2.77 Sherpa Pts

27. John Lackey (5) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 163.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 173 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 147 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts

32. Jered Weaver (6) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 152 K, 1.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 182 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 161 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

48. Justin Verlander (7) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 201 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 163 K, 1.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 199 K, 2.69 Sherpa Pts

17. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 174.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 K, 1.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in an AL-only format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.71 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.00 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.61 (3.85, 1st)
3. Justin Duchscherer - 3.04 (2.80, 6th)
4. Ervin Santana - 2.72 (2.09, 20th)
5. James Shields - 2.58 (2.90, 4th)
6. Joe Saunders - 2.55 (1.64, 35th)
7. Mariano Rivera - 2.37 (2.80, 5th)
8. Mike Mussina - 2.32 (2.05, 21st)
9. Josh Beckett - 2.20 (2.78, 7th)
10. Felix Hernandez - 2.16 (2.77, 8th)
11. Scott Kazmir - 2.16 (2.67, 9th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. Roy Halladay - 3.85 (Year-to-Date score = 3.61 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd)
2. John Lackey - 3.21 (1.97, 19th)
3. Cliff Lee - 3.00 (3.71, 1st)
4. James Shields - 2.90 (2.58, 5th)
5. Mariano Rivera - 2.80 (2.37, 7th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.80 (3.04, 3rd)
7. Josh Beckett - 2.78 (2.20, 9th)
8. Felix Hernandez - 2.77 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
9. Scott Kazmir - 2.67 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.63 (1.94, 20th)

John Lackey’s year-to-date results are obviously hampered by the fact that he didn’t pitch his first regular season game until May 14th. Still, with three bad outings in his last four starts, he may be a buy-low candidate today. I would also consider Daisuke Matsuzaka a buy-low candidate at this point in the season. On the flip side, three Pitchers I would be looking to sell high on if I owned them: (1) Ervin Santana, (2) Joe Saunders, and (3) Mike Mussina.
In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an NL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa