The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 100 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 80 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 107 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 89 K, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 3.29 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
6. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 283 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .314 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
7. Bobby Abreu (LAA, OF) - 279 AB, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 15 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 269 AB, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG, 45 R, 2.96 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 305 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 SB, .344 AVG, 43 R, 2.93 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 257 AB, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB, .276 AVG, 44 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points
11. Derek Jeter (NYY, SS) - 311 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB, .315 AVG, 50 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

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Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement next week for the DL’d Michael Barrett, and you’re the only team in your league that needs to pick up a Catcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Livan Hernandez, even if you are unlucky enough to have Pedro Martinez, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Doug Davis on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence, but you’re much more likely to get the next Nelson Cruz or Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Heath Bell, Rafael Betancourt, Tony Pena (the pitcher!), Carlos Quentin, and Joey Votto (if available in your league) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

If your league also allows a claim before the first week of the season, here’s how I’d recommend adjusting your FAAB spending:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $7; $7 spent YTD, $93 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $14; $86.
• Week 3 - $7; $21; $79.
• Week 4 - $6; $27; $73.
• Week 5 - $6; $33; $67.
• Week 6 - $6; $39; $61.
• Week 7 - $6; $45; $55.
• Week 8 - $5; $50; $50.
• Week 9 - $5; $55; $45.
• Week 10 - $5; $60; $40.
• Week 11 - $5; $65; $35.
• Week 12 - $4; $69; $31.
• Week 13 - $4; $73; $27.
• Week 14 - $4; $77; $23.
• Week 15 - $3; $80; $20.
• Week 16 - $3; $83; $17.
• Week 17 - $3; $86; $14.
• Week 18 - $3; $89; $11.
• Week 19 - $2; $91; $9.
• Week 20 - $2; $93; $7.
• Week 21 - $2; $95; $5.
• Week 22 - $1; $96; $4.
• Week 23 - $1; $97; $3.
• Week 24 - $1; $98; $2.
• Week 25 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 26 - $1; $100; $0.

I’ll post similar charts for a $1,000 FAAB later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa