The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Here’s a review of my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 43,305, which is within the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,421 (St. Louis) to 1,476 (Boston), which is within the benchmark of 1,400-1,500.
3. Total Wins = 2,430, which matches the benchmark total. I did not project Pitchers’ losses.
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,203/2,430) = 49.5%, which is within the benchmark of 49%-52%.
5. Total #Earned Runs Allowed = 21,804, which is slightly above the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.53, which is slightly above the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed = 14,441, which is below the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed = 43,154, which is below the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.33, which is below the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.

Conclusion - The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections are not perfect (when compared to the benchmarks). However, like their Hitting counterparts, these Pitchers’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The other projections I’ve reviewed can be objectively labeled as “Best Case” projections. Again, the chief advantage of using a set of “Expected Case” projections over a set of “Best Case” projections is that the former will lead to a more realistic evaluation and ranking of the second and third-tier players who will likely determine your league’s champion.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll turn the magnifying glass on my own projections to see how they stack up against the other projections I’ve reviewed previously. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 156,214, which is somewhat lower than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 4,737 (San Diego) to 5,049 (Dodgers) for NL teams, and 5,379 (Minnesota) to 5,780 (Detroit) for AL teams. The NL range is somewhat below the benchmark of 5,100-5,400 for NL teams, while the AL range is fairly consistent with the benchmark of 5,400-5,800 for AL teams. Note that these figures exclude projected ABs for Pitchers, which accounts for the different benchmarks for the two leagues.
3. Total Hits = 43,035, which is within the benchmark of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average = .276, which is above the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 5,303, which is within the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 22,191, which is slightly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 23,241, which is within the benchmark of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,057, which is slightly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - While the totals in some of the categories are outside the benchmark ranges, when viewed as a whole, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Hitters’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The differences between an “Expected Case” and “Best Case” set of projections may not affect your choices early in your draft or auction, but by the time you get down to the second and third-tier players (i.e. - where fantasy championships are often won), the differences can become significant. “Best Case” projections will lead you to overvalue the second and third-tier players, which can lead you to draft them too soon or pay too much for them in an auction. Use a set of “Expected Case” projections (preferably the Sherpa’s!) whenever possible.

I’ll look at my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Here’s a review of the Pitchers’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 56,900, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,479 (LA Angels) to 2,261 (Texas), which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 1,400-1,500.
3. Totals Wins = 3,084; Total Losses = 3,165. Aside from the fact that the Wins and Losses don’t match, they’re both significantly higher than the number of games in a baseball season (2,430).
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/3,084) = 42.7%, which is significantly lower than the benchmark of 49%-52%. If the #Wins were corrected (i.e. - Total #Wins set to 2,430), then the #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/2,430) would be 54.2%, which would be above the 49%-52% benchmark.
5. Total #Earned Runs allowed = 26,167, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.14, which is below the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed = 20,346, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed = 57,734, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.37, which is within the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections, like their Hitters’ projections, appear to be “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections, with the possible exceptions of the #Saves and the WHIP. Some might argue that if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections are both overstated to the same degree, then using the entire set of projections will not create any problems. I disagree - even if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections were “equally out of whack”, the resulting projections for the second and third-tier players (i.e. - the ones that usually make the difference between a great winning fantasy team and an also-ran) will be too optimistic, resulting in these players being taken too soon in a draft or going for too much in an auction.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll continue my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. Next up are the Hitters’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 201,801, which is significantly greater than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 5,902 (Phillies) to 7,911 (Nationals) for NL teams, and 6,422 (Rays) to 7,777 (Rangers) for AL teams. Based on results for the past 3 seasons, a much more reasonable range is 5,100-5,400 AB for an NL team, and 5,400 to 5,800 AB for an AL team. You can draw your own conclusions on the likelihood of the Nationals’ Hitters accumulating 2,000 AB more than the Phillies and 1,000 AB more than teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
3. Total Hits = 55,302, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average is .274, which is slightly higher than the benchmark range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,343, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,829, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,793, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,495, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of you draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Here’s my review of the Pitchers’ projections available at MLB.com. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams - can’t judge this; unfortunately, the MLB.com summary projections don’t include a Pitcher’s projected IP.
2. Total IP for a team - see previous item.
3. Total #Wins = 2,180, which is less than the benchmark of 2,430.
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,237/2,180) = 56.7%, which is greater than the range of 49-52%. If the #Wins were corrected (i.e. - Total #Wins set to 2,430), the #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,237/2,430) would be 50.9%, which is within the benchmark range of 1,190-1,265.
5. Total #Earned Runs allowed - see item #1.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) - since IP for individual Pitchers aren’t readily available, I used Strikeouts as a proxy for IP. I realize this proxy leaves something to be desired, but even so, the resulting estimate of 4.03 is significantly lower than the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed - can’t judge this easily, since the Walks Allowed are not included in the summary projections.
8. Total Hits Allowed - can’t judge this easily either, since Hits Allowed are not included in the summary projections.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) - again, using Strikeouts as a proxy for IP, the overall WHIP estimate is 1.33, which is below the benchmark of 1.37-1.41

Conclusion - MLB.com’s Pitchers’ projections are more difficult to generalize than their corresponding Hitters’ projections. Closers will be overvalued relative to Starting Pitchers because Saves are within the benchmark range, while Wins are understated. Both the ERA and WHIP appear to be low in aggregate. When viewed as a complete set, the MLB.com projections overstate the relative value of Hitters, while understating the relative value of Starting Pitchers, and, to a lesser extent, Closers.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll start my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. First up are the Hitters’ projections available at MLB.com. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams - can’t judge this; unfortunately, the MLB.com summary projections don’t include a Hitter’s projected AB.
2. Total AB for a team - see previous item.
3. Total Hits - see item #1.
4. Overall Batting Average - since AB for individual Hitters aren’t readily available, I used Runs Scored as a proxy for AB. This proxy suggests an overall Batting Average of .280, which is greater than the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,592, which is significantly above the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,510, which is significantly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,669, which is significantly above the benchmark of 22,000-23,000.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,664, which is significantly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - MLB.com’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of your draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at MLB.com’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

The Sherpa