The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.  Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.

Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.  What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?  Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1996:  3.70
• 1997:  2.37
• 1998:  3.63
• 1999:  2.57
• 2000:  3.29
• 2001:  3.35
• 2002:  3.67
• 2003:  3.34
• 2004:  2.87
• 2005:  3.89
• 2006:  2.77
• 2007:  3.80
• 2008:  2.92

The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.  In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!

Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.  Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.

I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:  .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.  When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.  However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?  will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.

Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

So, you’re in a 12-team 5×5 Mixed league snake draft, you pick towards the end of the first round, and Albert Pujols is still available. Do you bite?

I say no, unless you have the 12th pick and can immediately make your second selection. The adage about “high risk, high reward” doesn’t apply to fantasy baseball drafts - you must, must, must get a “sure thing” with your first-round pick. That means identifying players with known injuries in Spring Training and avoiding them like the plague in the first round. Before the news of the extent of Pujols’ injuries came out, I based my projections for him on the assumption that he would play 155 games this season. At that point I would have considered him with the 9th pick, factoring in the Position Scarcity analysis that underlies my player rankings. After the news came out, I scaled back my assumption to 145 games, and even that may be too optimistic. If Pujols’ health concerns persist and the Cardinals are as bad as I think they’ll be this year (i.e. - they’re mathematically eliminated in late August/early September), I think it’s definitely possible that the Cardinals and Pujols would mutually agree that it’s in their best long-term interests to cut short his season (ala Dwyane Wade).

So, why would I argue that Pujols is a good pick with the last pick in the first round or the first pick in the second round, but not a few picks before that? At that point I think the risk vs. reward scale tips back in favor of the reward, so I’d be willing to take that chance. I wouldn’t pair Pujols with Johan Santana - you need to get at least one “sure thing” Hitter in the first two rounds. However, if I could pair Pujols with a first-round pick of Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, or Jimmy Rollins, then I would consider the reward to outweigh the risk. But even if I did that, I wouldn’t necessarily commit to keeping Pujols for the whole season. Suppose Pujols gets off to a strong start, and the concerns about his injury subside temporarily. In that case I would look to package him with someone else on my team who’s off to an unsustainable start in return for two above-average players who help me in my weaker categories.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Last Monday evening I participated in Mock Draft Central’s Expert Draft #3, hosted by Geoff Stein. This draft was for a mixed league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (HRs, RBIs, SBs, AVG, Runs Scored) and 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP). Here’s a link to the results by team:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_3.jsp

Some quick thoughts on my draft:

1. I was shocked when SS Hanley Ramirez fell all the way to me with the 5th pick in the 1st round. Other than 3B Alex Rodriguez, there’s no one I’d rather have for 2008 to anchor a team using the usual 5×5 scoring criteria.
2. I caught some flak from Paul Greco (who was broadcasting our draft live on Blog Talk Radio) for my pick of Catcher Victor Martinez with the 8th pick in the 2nd round. There were definitely players still available at that point who will contribute more in the Hitting categories than Martinez (e.g. - OF Vladimir Guerrero, OF Ichiro Suzuki, and 1B Mark Teixeira). So, why would I choose Martinez at that point even though “better” players were still available? It all comes back to Position Scarcity, which is the key principle underlying my player projections and rankings. When I look at the drop-off between Martinez and the Catchers I have ranked below him, it’s far greater than the drop-off between Guerrero, Suzuki, and Teixeira and the players I have ranked below them at their respective positions. Thus, it makes more sense at that point to take an elite player at a thin position like Catcher rather than an elite player at a deeper position like Outfield or First Base. Using this particular league’s Hitting categories, if I combine Victor Martinez with a mediocre Outfielder or First Baseman, then I will have a better overall score in the Hitting categories than if I were to combine an elite Outfielder or First Baseman with a mediocre Catcher.
3. Paul also questioned my selections of Roy Oswalt over Justin Verlander in the 5th round and John Smoltz over Felix Hernandez in the 7th round. No doubt, Verlander and Hernandez have brighter futures/higher ceilings at this point in their careers than Oswalt and Smoltz. However, I’m leery of projecting fantasy stardom for players (especially Pitchers, whose results are harder to project) before they have a track record of several consistent years of great results to back it up. I’ll take the steady, relatively predictable results of Oswalt and Smoltz over the potential of Verlander and Hernandez to anchor my pitching staff. The latter offer potential higher rewards, but the accompanying higher risk causes me to look elsewhere at this point in a draft.
4. I received a question during the draft from a viewer who wondered why I hadn’t taken any Outfielders through the first 5 rounds (indeed, I didn’t pick my first Outfielder until the 10th round!). Again, it all comes down to Position Scarcity: while other teams were busy scooping up the elite Outfielders, I was able to land Hanley Ramirez as my Shortstop, Victor Martinez as my first Catcher, and Howie Kendrick as my Second Baseman. I was still able to piece together an outfield consisting of Johnny Damon (10th round), Pat Burrell (12th round), Raul Ibanez (14th round), Jose Guillen (18th round), and Mark Teahen (23rd round).
5. Paul also questioned my pick of Arizona reliever Tony Pena in the 19th round when the anointed Diamondbacks’ Closer, Brandon Lyon, was still available. Going strictly by their stats over the last few seasons, I project that Pena will spend more time as the Diamondbacks’ Closer this year than Lyon. Knowing the tenuous hold that many Closers have on their starring roles, I felt this was a risk worth taking in the 19th round when I already had one “definite” Closer on my roster (Atlanta’s Rafael Soriano).

Finally, Mock Draft Central uses projections from 3 different sources (Baseball HQ, FantasyBaseball.com, and Big Dawg Baseball) to predict the “results” of a draft. Just to give you an idea for how dependent these results are on the underlying projections, 10 of the 12 experts ranked in the Top 6 in at least one of the three sets of rankings. I was one of just two experts to finish in the Top 6 according to all 3 sources (ESPN’s Brendan Roberts was the other) - Big Dawg Baseball’s projections had me in 1st place, Baseball HQ’s had me in 3rd place, and FantasyBaseball.com’s had me in 6th place.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Last night I took part in an experts’ draft hosted by Mock Draft Central.com (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_3.jsp)

Viewers were able to send in questions during the draft - here are some of the more interesting strategy-related questions we were asked, followed by my answers:

1. How early is too early to draft a Pitcher, even one as dominant as Johan Santana?

It all depends on the specific characteristics of your particular league. In the 5×5 mixed league, 12-team, 14 Hitter/9 Pitcher format we were using last night, I would rank Johan Santana third overall. Most experts (and many non-experts!) will tell you that Pitchers should never be drafted in the first few rounds - obviously, I strongly disagree. It all comes down to quantifying Position Scarcity - how much of a drop-off is there at Starting Pitcher after Santana vs. how much of a drop-off is there after the top-rated players at other positions? While some of the anti-Starting Pitcher sentiment can be attributed to Pitchers’ predictability/consistency vs. Hitters’ predictability/consistency, I believe most of this bias is due to the fact that many people have a hard time quantifying the impact of a Pitcher on his fantasy team’s average-based Pitching categories (i.e. - ERA, WHIP).

2. Do you prefer auctions or snake drafts?

They’re both challenging (for different reasons), but I think auctions are more fun and give fantasy team managers a better taste for what it’s like to run a major league team with budgetary constraints. The major difference is that there’s a far greater degree of gamesmanship with auctions than there is with a snake draft - many people like that element and swear by the auction format; some people don’t and are happy to stick with snake drafts.

3. What’s the thinnest position this year?

Catcher, especially if you’re in a league that requires you to start two of them. The answer can also depend on your league’s format. For example, if you’re playing in an AL-only league, there’s surprisingly few top performers at First Base this year - of course, this depends in part too whether Designated Hitter types like David Ortiz, Travis Hafner, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, et. al., are also eligible at First Base in your league.

4. How will the Mitchell Report affect your player rankings this year?

Since it’s impossible to know which players not named in the Mitchell Report may have also been the subject of chemical experiments, I’m not including a “Mitchell Factor” in my player projections and rankings this year. However, if a player started/stopped using performance enhancing drugs that were actually affecting his results during the experience period I look at, then his “tainted” results may well be influencing my 2008 projections.

5. You haven’t drafted any Outfielders through the first 5 rounds - why not?

Position scarcity - there is much less of a drop-off after the top-rated Outfielders than there is after the top-rated players at most other positions. I didn’t take my first Outfielder until the 10th round, but was still able to put together a slate that consisted of Johnny Damon (10th round), Pat Burrell (12th round), Raul Ibanez (14th round), Jose Guillen (18th round), and Mark Teahen (23rd round). By waiting to draft Outfielders I was able to select players I had rated among the top at positions such as Shortstop (Hanley Ramirez - Round 1), Catcher (Victor Martinez - Round 2), and Second Base (Howie Kendrick - Round 8).

6. Is it worth taking Middle Relievers late in a draft?

With the standard caveat (”it depends on the particular characteristics of your league”), generally, I would say “yes”. However, I would target Middle Relievers who pitch for decent teams, have a high strikeout rate, and pitch in front of Closers who stand a decent chance of being replaced/injured at some point during the season. For 2008 I believe that list includes Cleveland’s Rafael Betancourt, San Diego’s Heath Bell, Minnesota’s Pat Neshek, and Colorado’s Brian Fuentes. If Detroit’s Joel Zumaya were healthy, he would definitely be on my list too. Even guys like Anaheim’s Scot Shields, Boston’s Manny Delcarmen, and Milwaukee’s Derrick Turnbow may be worth speculative late-round picks if your league has a number of roster spots for Reserves. However, I would avoid set-up men like Washington’s Jon Rauch and Florida’s Taylor Tankersley unless you’re feeling really lucky or playing in a league where there’s no depth to be found on the waiver wire/free agent pool once the season begins.

7. Do you believe in punting categories?

No, I don’t. If you’re playing in a league that uses just 4 or 5 Hitting or Pitching categories, there’s not enough margin for error if you do that. I might consider it if I played in a larger league that uses 7+ categories for both Hitting and Pitching. People who believe in punting categories usually pick Saves or Stolen Bases. If you’re going to argue that new Closers always emerge during the season, and therefore it isn’t fatal if you leave your draft/auction without one, I’d buy that to some extent. However, in that case you’d need to figure out how easy it will be for you to obtain these players if/when they become available (via trade, free agency, waiver claim). How do you pick up free agents in your league? Is it first-come, first-served? Do you use a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) with weekly bids? Does the person at the bottom of the league standings have dibs?

Also, keep in mind that no statistical categories (Hitting or Pitching) are entirely uncorrelated with all other statistical categories. If you punt Stolen Bases, you may also be affecting your ability to compete in Runs Scored and perhaps even Batting Average. If you punt Saves, you may also be adversely affecting your ERA and WHIP (unless your Closers are Todd Jones and Joe Borowski).

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Last night I participated in Mock Draft Central’s third 2008 experts’ mock draft. I’ll share some thoughts on the draft in a separate post, but I wanted to first share with you my line of thinking as I prepare for a fantasy baseball draft. This was a 12-team mixed league draft with each team picking 14 Hitters and 9 Pitchers. The draft used the standard 5 Hitting categories (Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, Runs Scored, Batting Average) and 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, Earned Run Average (ERA), and Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) ).

Prior to the draft each of the 12 experts was asked a series of 8 questions by Paul Greco, who did a live play-by-play of our draft on Blog Talk Radio (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasybaseballguy/2008/02/26/Mock-Draft-Centrals-Expert-Draft) - note: even though the program is listed as being 4 hours in length, there was approximately 30 minutes of “pregame” and a few minutes of post-draft analysis - the draft itself took about 2 hours and 15 minutes.

Here are the questions Paul asked, followed by my responses (I had the 5th pick):

1. What is your Overall Draft strategy for this draft?

Come out of the draft with a team that should finish in the Top 4 (i.e. - top third) in all statistical categories, with the possible exception of Stolen Bases and Saves. These two categories have very little correlation with the other categories, so if I think I’ll finish in the Top 6 (i.e. - top half) in those categories, I’ll be happy. If I can do that, I should have a competitive team heading into the season!

2. What particular player are you looking to key on?

Since I have the 5th pick in the first round, I’ll have a list of my top 5 players, knowing that I’ll get one of them. I try not to key on particular players in subsequent rounds. As soon as I make my pick in a given round, I’ll start preparing a list of players I’m considering for my pick in the following round. The key factors that I consider are (1) my pre-draft rankings, (2) remaining position needs for the other teams in the draft (I keep a chart that I update throughout the draft), (3) projected points for each team based on projected results in each category (I use a spreadsheet to keep track of this during the draft), and (4) the Average Draft Position (ADP) for each player (I load this info into my player projections spreadsheet prior to the draft). Ideally, I’ll use the ADP for the site hosting the draft I’m participating in - if that’s not available, I’ll use Mock Draft Central’s ADP report since it’s based on hundreds of observations.

3. Are you planning on Drafting for scarcity or category?

I tend to focus more on Position Scarcity rather than Category Scarcity, especially earlier in a draft. Category Scarcity is relatively easy to quantify, and it can be tracked during the draft (see my response to your previous question). Many veteran fantasy baseball team owners also have a good intuitive feel for Position Scarcity, but it’s much more difficult to actually quantify. One of the features that sets my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa player rankings apart from the rest of the field is that I’ve developed an algorithm for quantifying Position Scarcity.

4. In your opinion what is the best draft position and why?

I’m probably in the minority, but I prefer to pick first rather than in the middle. Using my Position Scarcity-based player ranking system, I’m confident that I can put together a competitive team no matter which position I’m drafting from. However, going into the season there are usually 2-3 players I rank significantly higher than the rest, and it’s great to be able to snag one of them right off the bat! The only potential drawback to drafting at either end is being left out of a position run, so you may have to take a player you like a round or two earlier than you want to. I don’t worry too much about being left out of a position run (even if it’s a Closer run) - there are plenty of other inefficiencies that can be exploited during the draft no matter which position you’re picking from.

5. Who would you like in the 1st round?

I figure that Alex Rodriguez and Hanley Ramirez are likely to go with the first two picks, so I’ll probably be choosing among David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Johan Santana. I know that Lenny (Melnick, Paul’s co-host) is vehemently opposed to the idea of taking a Pitcher (even one as good as Santana) in the first round, but from a Position Scarcity standpoint it’s justified. By the way, when I say “Position Scarcity”, I don’t mean the relative number of options at a particular position - I’m looking more at the drop-off between a particular player and who I’m likely to wind up with in that roster position if I pass on him now (i.e. - the opportunity cost). One of the reasons I believe Santana is undervalued by most fantasy players is that they don’t have a good intuitive feel for the impact he has on the average-based categories (i.e. - ERA, WHIP). They’re much less intuitive than the counting categories (e.g. - Ks, Ws), but they’re worth just as much!

6. What player are you NOT going to take and why?

I’m staying away from Albert Pujols in the first round due to the concerns about his arm injury. Of course, he’s supposedly had this injury for several years and managed to perform at a high level in spite of it. However, I’m extremely risk averse with my first few picks and don’t want to take a chance on someone who has a known injury going into the season and could easily miss a month or more of the season (especially if, as I suspect, the Cardinals are lousy this year and decide to shut him down early). Before he spoke out about his injury, I thought he would play 155 games this season, and he’s someone I would have considered with a mid-late 1st round pick. After he spoke out about his injury, I lowered my projection for him to 145 games, at which point I’d no longer consider taking him with a 1st round pick.

7. How much prep work did you do for this Mock draft?

I did a lot of prep work for this mock draft, just like I would for any draft (real or mock) that I participate in. For a start-up business such as mine, every mock draft is an opportunity to market myself, and I intend to take full advantage of it!

8. Are you experimenting or playing to come out with the best team?

I’m definitely participating in this mock draft with the idea of coming out of it with the best team possible. Again, this is a great marketing opportunity for a start-up business like mine, and I want to give potential customers some insight into how I think and how the Sherpa system works!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone - welcome to the Sherpa’s fantasy baseball strategy blog!

A recent Google search revealed ~15,000 results for “fantasy baseball strategy” and ~40,000 results for “fantasy baseball blog”, but just 1 result for “fantasy baseball strategy blog”! While I’m sure that many of the “fantasy baseball strategy” results would indeed lead you to blog entries, it still seems hard to believe that there aren’t already a multitude of blogs geared towards the millions of people who play fantasy baseball. So, when I tout my blog as the top fantasy baseball strategy blog, there’s almost no competition!

I have several goals in starting this blog:

1. Promote my new fantasy baseball website www.FantasyBaseballSherpa.com. Many people who play fantasy baseball have an intuitive feel for Position Scarcity, which captures variances in supply vs. demand at the different roster positions. However, the Sherpa has figured out how to quantify Position Scarcity, which can put you at a huge advantage in preparing for your league’s draft or auction!
2. Post updates to the Sherpa’s Preseason Hitters’ and Pitchers’ Projections, as warranted by developments during Spring Training.
3. Discuss fantasy baseball strategies from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint.
4. Discuss other fantasy baseball topics that will appeal to a wide audience.

I welcome your comments, questions, and suggestions. Feel free to disagree with me - it makes for much more interesting discussions! I won’t be able to respond to specific questions you may have about your own fantasy baseball rosters, but feel free to include examples if they help you make a point about fantasy baseball strategy.

Hoping to guide you to victory!

-The Sherpa