The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

I’ve received several questions recently regarding how often I update the Preseason Player Projections & Rankings. Obviously, if I’m railing against inaccuracies in other sets of projections, then I don’t want to be sitting on an outdated set of projections myself. So, I do my best to update projected changes in playing time (due to transactions, injuries, and position battles) within 24 hours of when the relevant information becomes available. As we get closer to the end of Spring Training and teams finalize their Opening Day rosters, adhering to this 24-hour standard will become more challenging. However, in my mind at least, when you become my customer, you have a right to expect up-to-date information, and I’ll make every effort to keep that promise. If the volume of transactions makes that unfeasible, I will prioritize the updates based on the player’s projected “fantasy relevance” (i.e. - I would update projections for Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana before I would updated projections for Brad Ausmus or Odalis Perez).

Here are some of the players whose projections I’ve updated within the last couple of days: John Lackey (reduced GP due to injury), Kyle Lohse (added to the database), Sergio Mitre (reduced GP due to injury), Rocco Baldelli (removed from the database), Casey Janssen (removed from the database), Horacio Ramirez (removed from the database), and Doug Mirabelli (removed from the database).

Good luck to those of you with a draft or auction this weekend!

The Sherpa

Today I’m taking my first crack at projecting the 2008 baseball standings based on rosters as of the beginning of Spring Training. For those who are interested, the projected win total for each team is based on the projected difference between the team’s Runs Scored and Runs Allowed.

What does this have to do with fantasy baseball? A realistic set of player projections is the essential first step in assigning fantasy baseball value to each player. A top Starting Pitcher or Closer will be much more valuable from a fantasy standpoint if he’s pitching for the Yankees or the Tigers than he will be if he’s pitching for the Giants. The run support a team’s Hitters give their Pitchers can easily make a difference of 2-3 Wins for a Starting Pitcher and 10 Saves for a Closer. While the run support a team gives a particular Pitcher is subject to some degree of randomness, Pitchers on good teams will generally be more valuable than Pitchers of similar ability on bad teams.

I’ll take a closer look later this week at how to evaluate a set of player projections; then, I’ll put several widely available sets to the test. However, for now, here are my initial projected standings for 2008:

These projections are the basis for the Preseason Player Projections & Rankings currently for sale on my website (www.FantasyBaseballSherpa.com). I’ll update the projections towards the end of Spring Training when we all have a better idea of how the Opening Day rosters will look. In the meantime, let me know what you think of Take 1 - hit me with your best shot - fire away!

Until next time,

The Sherpa