Posts Tagged ‘Ron Shandler’

Sherpa alert - SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com (Thu 9/16/10)

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

Hi everyone!

Many fantasy baseball leagues are now deep into their playoffs.  Anxious fantasy team owners scour the box scores each day for even the suggestion that one of the players in their lineup might miss an upcoming game.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 24 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

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Sherpa alert - SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com (Thu 7/22/10)

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 16; this week we’ve seen trade talks heat up and watched Donnie Baseball learn an obscure baseball rule the hard way.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 16 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Sherpa alert - SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com (Fri 7/16/10)

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Hi everyone!

We’re heading towards the end of Week 15; this week we’ve already lost two iconic baseball figures (Bob Sheppard, George Steinbrenner) and seen an entertaining All-Star Game with an unusual outcome.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 15 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Sherpa alert - SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com (Fri 4/23/10)

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 3, and injuries continue to take their toll on most  fantasy squads.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 3 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Predictions for 2010 Bloomberg Challenge (Tue 3/16/10)

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

Hi everyone,

Last night the draft for the inaugural Bloomberg Fantasy Baseball Challenge was held on RealTime Sports’ website.  This is a 5×5 league which includes 6 fantasy baseball enthusiasts, who were chosen from among ~300 applicants, and 6 industry experts.  The league uses the usual 5×5 scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util), 9 pitchers, and a 5-player Bench. 

Here are the 12 participants for 2010 in the order they drafted (affiliation noted for industry experts):

  1. Lawr Michaels - Mastersball.com
  2. Ron Shandler - BaseballHQ.com
  3. Martha Mitchell
  4. Rob Reed
  5. Harold Reynolds - MLB Network
  6. Tim Heaney - KFFL.com
  7. Jonathan Levey
  8. David Roher
  9. Paul Farrell
  10. Derek VanRiper - Rotowire.com
  11. Satoshi Kii
  12. Steve Gardner - USA Today

Here’s a link to the RealTime Fantasy Sports website’s league page that details each team’s roster.

I used the 2010 projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of last night’s draft:

Projections by Team (in draft order) - Hitting Categories


Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Michaels

7,846

.288

261

1,145

194

1,238

Shandler

7,626

.285

270

1,080

195

1,189

Mitchell

7,399

.278

292

1,092

198

1,114

Reed

7,986

.283

286

1,126

227

1,214

Reynolds

7.665

.276

292

1,126

142

1,150

Heaney

7,618

.284

296

1,167

219

1,211

Levey

7,630

.288

280

1,172

227

1,207

Roher

7,558

.288

265

1,106

194

1,182

Farrell

7,748

.278

312

1,211

139

1,175

VanRiper

7,622

.285

272

1,142

179

1,198

Kii

7,086

.281

273

1,079

201

1,097

Gardner

7,506

.282

257

1,059

188

1,144

  
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Pitching Categories


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Michaels

1,369

83

98

3.62

1.20

1,167

Shandler

1,336

83

36

3.98

1.26

1,314

Mitchell

1,312

80

90

3.72

1.27

1,244

Reed

1,221

73

88

3.55

1.21

1,179

Reynolds

1,310

80

81

3.76

1.30

1,067

Heaney

1,409

82

59

3.79

1.26

1,201

Levey

1,485

90

68

3.81

1.23

1,185

Roher

1,400

84

71

3.70

1.23

1,293

Farrell

1,370

85

76

3.60

1.22

1,217

VanRiper

1,469

90

66

4.07

1.30

1,238

Kii

1,312

77

62

3.57

1.25

1,239

Gardner

1,406

89

58

3.75

1.24

1,161

 

 

Projected Standings (in order of finish)


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Levey

49

33

82

Michaels

38

42

80

Reed

42

38

80

Farrell

33

44

77

Roher

31

43

74

Heaney

48

23

71

VanRiper

32

27

59

Mitchell

25

34

59

Shandler

30

25

55

Kii

22

32

54

Gardner

14

27

41

Reynolds

22

19

41

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an independent observer rather than a participant.  Hopefully, all 12 of the participants came out of the draft feeling good about their team.  Hope springs eternal before the actual games begin.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

 

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • There appeared to be a glitch in the draft software.  Occasionally, a drafted player seemingly destined for a given team’s bench was placed in the starting lineup over a player with greater fantasy value.  Apparently, these decisions were based on alphabetical order or something equally irrelevant (e.g. - just a hunch, but I doubt Tim Heaney would choose to start Kelly Shoppach at Utility and keep Jayson Werth on the bench).  I did my best to account for these discrepancies in order to optimize each team’s expected results.
  • Some participants, especially Reed, Kii, and Mitchell, took more chances than others in drafting talented players who are either injured or likely to start the season in the minors.  Of course, in the actual contest, the owners will replace the players in the lineup, which will improve their results in at least the counting stat categories, but I did not attempt to adjust for this factor.  Thus, my projected results for these owners may be a bit conservative.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades (if the league decides to allow them), free agent pickups, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of last night’s draft.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds - good luck to all the participants!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: AL-only (Mon 3/30/09)

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Hi everyone,

This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 12 participants for 2009:

  1. Matthew Berry - ESPN.com
  2. Jason Collette - OwnersEdge.com
  3. Jeff Erickson - RotoWire
  4. Jason Grey - ESPN.com
  5. Lawr Michaels - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  6. Steve Moyer - baseballinfosolutions.com
  7. Dean Peterson - STATS LLC
  8. Ron Shandler - baseballHQ.com
  9. Joe Sheehan - BaseballProspectus.com
  10. Mike Siano - mlb.com
  11. Sam Walker - Wall Street Journal
  12. Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton - Rotoworld.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Berry

5,428

.277

205

782

102

754

Collette

5,913

.269

203

816

150

845

Erickson

5,388

.284

170

772

135

833

Grey

6,608

.276

218

946

177

1,014

Michaels

5,657

.277

173

789

126

859

Moyer

6,354

.283

226

972

111

975

Peterson

6,158

.276

228

897

94

943

Shandler

5,786

.281

188

806

129

890

Sheehan

5,485

.277

161

686

153

857

Siano

5,400

.281

170

781

87

851

Walker

6,397

.265

232

907

94

933

Wolf/Colton

5,261

.284

168

749

112

765

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories

Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Berry

977

58

41

3.96

1.21

935

Collette

1,142

69

40

4.67

1.21

932

Erickson

1,026

63

51

4.64

1.34

853

Grey

823

48

54

3.82

1.30

654

Michaels

1,249

78

38

4.00

1.29

982

Moyer

1,211

77

33

4.42

1.27

949

Peterson

1,040

61

58

4.52

1.29

894

Shandler

956

56

19

4.81

1.33

826

Sheehan

915

56

31

4.45

1.25

806

Siano

1,034

63

46

4.20

1.29

843

Walker

1,013

63

44

4.15

1.33

907

Wolf/Colton

1,028

61

51

3.70

1.29

926

 

 

Projected Standings

Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Grey

47

39

86

Moyer

48

31

79

Peterson

36.5

33.5

70

Walker

34.5

32

66.5

Collette

31

33

64

Michaels

30

33

63

Siano

21.5

40

61.5

Wolf/Colton

22

38

60

Sheehan

29

30.5

59.5

Erickson

29.5

29.5

59

Berry

24

34

58

Shandler

37

16.5

53.5

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

 

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com