Many fantasy baseball leagues are now deep into their playoffs. Anxious fantasy team owners scour the box scores each day for even the suggestion that one of the players in their lineup might miss an upcoming game.
Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 24 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
We’re midway through Week 16; this week we’ve seen trade talks heat up and watched Donnie Baseball learn an obscure baseball rule the hard way. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 16 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
We’re heading towards the end of Week 15; this week we’ve already lost two iconic baseball figures (Bob Sheppard, George Steinbrenner) and seen an entertaining All-Star Game with an unusual outcome. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 15 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
We’re midway through Week 3, and injuries continue to take their toll on most fantasy squads. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 3 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
Last night the draft for the inaugural Bloomberg Fantasy Baseball Challenge was held on RealTime Sports’ website. This is a 5×5 league which includes 6 fantasy baseball enthusiasts, who were chosen from among ~300 applicants, and 6 industry experts. The league uses the usual 5×5 scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util), 9 pitchers, and a 5-player Bench.
Here are the 12 participants for 2010 in the order they drafted (affiliation noted for industry experts):
I used the 2010 projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of last night’s draft:
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Michaels
7,846
.288
261
1,145
194
1,238
Shandler
7,626
.285
270
1,080
195
1,189
Mitchell
7,399
.278
292
1,092
198
1,114
Reed
7,986
.283
286
1,126
227
1,214
Reynolds
7.665
.276
292
1,126
142
1,150
Heaney
7,618
.284
296
1,167
219
1,211
Levey
7,630
.288
280
1,172
227
1,207
Roher
7,558
.288
265
1,106
194
1,182
Farrell
7,748
.278
312
1,211
139
1,175
VanRiper
7,622
.285
272
1,142
179
1,198
Kii
7,086
.281
273
1,079
201
1,097
Gardner
7,506
.282
257
1,059
188
1,144
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Michaels
1,369
83
98
3.62
1.20
1,167
Shandler
1,336
83
36
3.98
1.26
1,314
Mitchell
1,312
80
90
3.72
1.27
1,244
Reed
1,221
73
88
3.55
1.21
1,179
Reynolds
1,310
80
81
3.76
1.30
1,067
Heaney
1,409
82
59
3.79
1.26
1,201
Levey
1,485
90
68
3.81
1.23
1,185
Roher
1,400
84
71
3.70
1.23
1,293
Farrell
1,370
85
76
3.60
1.22
1,217
VanRiper
1,469
90
66
4.07
1.30
1,238
Kii
1,312
77
62
3.57
1.25
1,239
Gardner
1,406
89
58
3.75
1.24
1,161
Projected Standings (in order of finish)
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Levey
49
33
82
Michaels
38
42
80
Reed
42
38
80
Farrell
33
44
77
Roher
31
43
74
Heaney
48
23
71
VanRiper
32
27
59
Mitchell
25
34
59
Shandler
30
25
55
Kii
22
32
54
Gardner
14
27
41
Reynolds
22
19
41
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an independent observer rather than a participant. Hopefully, all 12 of the participants came out of the draft feeling good about their team. Hope springs eternal before the actual games begin.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
There appeared to be a glitch in the draft software. Occasionally, a drafted player seemingly destined for a given team’s bench was placed in the starting lineup over a player with greater fantasy value. Apparently, these decisions were based on alphabetical order or something equally irrelevant (e.g. - just a hunch, but I doubt Tim Heaney would choose to start Kelly Shoppach at Utility and keep Jayson Werth on the bench). I did my best to account for these discrepancies in order to optimize each team’s expected results.
Some participants, especially Reed, Kii, and Mitchell, took more chances than others in drafting talented players who are either injured or likely to start the season in the minors. Of course, in the actual contest, the owners will replace the players in the lineup, which will improve their results in at least the counting stat categories, but I did not attempt to adjust for this factor. Thus, my projected results for these owners may be a bit conservative.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades (if the league decides to allow them), free agent pickups, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of last night’s draft. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds - good luck to all the participants!
This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Berry
5,428
.277
205
782
102
754
Collette
5,913
.269
203
816
150
845
Erickson
5,388
.284
170
772
135
833
Grey
6,608
.276
218
946
177
1,014
Michaels
5,657
.277
173
789
126
859
Moyer
6,354
.283
226
972
111
975
Peterson
6,158
.276
228
897
94
943
Shandler
5,786
.281
188
806
129
890
Sheehan
5,485
.277
161
686
153
857
Siano
5,400
.281
170
781
87
851
Walker
6,397
.265
232
907
94
933
Wolf/Colton
5,261
.284
168
749
112
765
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Berry
977
58
41
3.96
1.21
935
Collette
1,142
69
40
4.67
1.21
932
Erickson
1,026
63
51
4.64
1.34
853
Grey
823
48
54
3.82
1.30
654
Michaels
1,249
78
38
4.00
1.29
982
Moyer
1,211
77
33
4.42
1.27
949
Peterson
1,040
61
58
4.52
1.29
894
Shandler
956
56
19
4.81
1.33
826
Sheehan
915
56
31
4.45
1.25
806
Siano
1,034
63
46
4.20
1.29
843
Walker
1,013
63
44
4.15
1.33
907
Wolf/Colton
1,028
61
51
3.70
1.29
926
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Grey
47
39
86
Moyer
48
31
79
Peterson
36.5
33.5
70
Walker
34.5
32
66.5
Collette
31
33
64
Michaels
30
33
63
Siano
21.5
40
61.5
Wolf/Colton
22
38
60
Sheehan
29
30.5
59.5
Erickson
29.5
29.5
59
Berry
24
34
58
Shandler
37
16.5
53.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!