The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Matt Holliday’s Cardinals’ stats (he ranked 56th overall based on 235 At-Bats).

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 1) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 4.03 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.54 Sherpa Pts

2. Hanley Ramirez (3) - FLA, SS

• Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts

3. Ryan Braun (7) - MIL, OF

• Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

4. Prince Fielder (24) - MIL, 1B

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Kemp (2) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Howard (11) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

7. Chase Utley (16) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 565 AB, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, .285 AVG, 112 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 495 AB, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 11 SB, .309 AVG, 95 R, 2.66 Sherpa Pts

8. Troy Tulowitzki (67) - COL, SS

• Actual stats: 535 AB, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 20 SB, .299 AVG, 99 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 578 AB, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .268 AVG, 90 R, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Mark Reynolds (43) - ARI, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 567 AB, 44 HR, 101 RBI, 24 SB, .263 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 518 AB, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .263 AVG, 94 R, 2.14 Sherpa Pts

10. Derrek Lee (18) - CHC, 1B

• Actual stats: 525 AB, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, .309 AVG, 91 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 621 AB, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 12 SB, .296 AVG, 97 R, 2.64 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - Hanley Ramirez’ shift from first to third in the Marlins’ batting order had exactly the opposite effect from what I’d projected. Instead of increasing his power numbers at the expense of his batting average, the reverse occurred.  Also, it’s interesting to see how a higher-than-expected Stolen Base total can lead to a large spike in a player’s fantasy value (e.g.- Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. David Wright (4) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.35 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts

140. Jose Reyes (5) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.25 Sherpa Pts

77. Alfonso Soriano (6) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.24 Sherpa Pts

53. Carlos Beltran (8) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts

51. Manny Ramirez (9) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 344 AB, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, .294 AVG, 62 R, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 538 AB, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .320 AVG, 97 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

33. Lance Berkman (10) - HOU, 1B

• Actual stats: 449 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 7 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 549 AB, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 12 SB, .302 AVG, 103 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts 

We’re gearing up here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.46 Total Sherpa Points
4. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
5. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.32 Total Sherpa Points
6. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 sB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
7. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 48 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
10. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 4.15 Total Sherpa Points
2. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
3. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.74 Total Sherpa Points
4. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.66 Total Sherpa Points
5. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
6. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.47 Total Sherpa Points
7. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 273 AB, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 14 SB, .319 AVG, 48 R, 3.40 Total Sherpa Points
8. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
9. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 267 AB, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .296 AVG, 47 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
10. Shane Victorino (Phi, OF) - 303 AB, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 15 SB, .300 AVG, 54 R, 3.08 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 16 HR would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 4.10 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
4. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 3.03 Total Sherpa Points
6. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 3.01 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 325 AB, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 19 SB, .320 AVG, 48 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 332 AB, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .310 AVG, 61 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 327 AB, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 20 SB, .324 AVG, 56 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
10. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 259 AB, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 53 R, 2.69 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 80 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 340 AB, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, .329 AVG, 69 R, 3.88 Total Sherpa Points
2. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 368 AB, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 19 SB, .332 AVG, 66 R, 3.72 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 385 AB, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 9 SB, .309 AVG, 77 R, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
4. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 145 K, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
5. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 407 AB, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 22 SB, .307 AVG, 67 R, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
6. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 131 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 121 K, 3.47 Total Sherpa Points
7. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 380 AB, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 16 SB, .311 AVG, 68 R, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
8. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 136 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 160 K, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 391 AB, 23 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .297 AVG, 68 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
10. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 355 AB, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .304 AVG, 66 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 219 AB, 22 HR, 57 RBI, 9 SB, .324 AVG, 50 R, 3.95 Total Sherpa Points
2. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 242 AB, 22 HR, 59 RBI, 4 SB, .322 AVG, 51 R, 3.81 Total Sherpa Points
3. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 94.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.20 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 90 K, 3.42 Total Sherpa Points
4. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 225 AB, 4 HR, 36 RBI, 17 SB, .364 AVG, 40 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
5. Mark Reynolds (Ari, 3B) - 231 AB, 17 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .281 AVG, 42 R, 3.13 Total Sherpa Points
6. Jonathan Broxton (LAD, RP) - 32.0 IP, 6 W, 16 SV, 1.41 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 53 K, 2.95 Total Sherpa Points
7. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 213 AB, 15 HR, 43 RBI, 5 SB, .305 AVG, 46 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
8. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 215 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 8 SB, .344 AVG, 37 R, 2.88 Total Sherpa Points
9. Chad Billingsley (LAD, SP) - 92.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 93 K, 2.86 Total Sherpa Points
10. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 227 AB, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 4 SB, .313 AVG, 42 R, 2.80 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The following is an updated & consolidated version of two posts I made in April 2008 concerning weekly FAAB spending targets - enjoy!

Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement for the DL’d Jake Peavy, and you’re the only team in your league that currently needs to pick up a Starting Pitcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis, even if you are unlucky enough to have Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Maine, Justin Duchscherer, and Jesse Litsch on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as David Price, Matt Wieters, Tommy Hanson, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria, but you’re much more likely to get the next Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Matt Laporta, Brandon Wood, Jeff Clement, Chad Fox, Jesus Guzman, Gaby Sanchez, Kyle Banks, Jensen Lewis, Brian Bruney, and Tony Pena (the pitcher!) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

For those of you who play with a $1,000 FAAB budget, here is how I’d recommend structuring your spending over the course of the season:

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $77; $77 spent year-to-date; $923 remaining.
• Week 2 - $73; $150; $850.
• Week 3 - $71; $221; $779.
• Week 4 - $68; $289; $711.
• Week 5 - $65; $354; $646.
• Week 6 - $62; $416; $584.
• Week 7 - $59; $475; $525.
• Week 8 - $55; $530; $470.
• Week 9 - $52; $582; $418.
• Week 10 - $49; $631; $369.
• Week 11 - $46; $677; $323.
• Week 12 - $43; $720; $280.
• Week 13 - $40; $760; $240.
• Week 14 - $37; $797; $203.
• Week 15 - $34; $831; $169.
• Week 16 - $31; $862; $138.
• Week 17 - $28; $890; $110.
• Week 18 - $25; $915; $85.
• Week 19 - $22; $937; $63.
• Week 20 - $18; $955; $45.
• Week 21 - $15; $970; $30.
• Week 22 - $12; $982; $18.
• Week 23 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 24 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 25 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Your eyes are not playing tricks on you - even though we’re at the end of Week 10, and just under 40% of the season has elapsed, you’re completely justified in having already spent over 60% of your FAAB for the year!

Finally, everyone makes “mistakes” with their FAAB purchases - it’s just an inevitable part of the game.  How many of you spent large amounts of your FAAB on Matt Laporta or Brandon Wood earlier this season, only to see them languish on their respective teams’ bench before being sent back down to the minors?  Don’t worry - it happens.  The key is to make sure that your “mistakes” don’t make you gun-shy in pursuing other potential impact players in the future.  Just like a Closer who gives up a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th inning of a game, you’ve got to put it behind you and bid in future weeks as though your “mistake” had never happened.

Happy bidding!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.71 Total Sherpa Points
2. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
6. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 448 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 548 AB, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 16 SB, .310 AVG, 96 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
8. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 533 AB, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB, .319 AVG, 82 R, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
10.  Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com