The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, & WHIP) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Rich Harden, SP, ChC (2.13 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.66 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +1.47)
2. Cole Hamels, SP, Phi (2.27 - 1.03 = +1.24)
3. Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou (1.93 - 0.78 =+1.15)
4. Johan Santana, SP, NYM (3.40 - 2.32 = +1.08)
5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (1.48 - 0.46 = +1.02)
6. Jose Valverde, RP, Hou (1.52 - 0.56 = +0.96)
7. Ricky Nolasco, SP, Fla (0.52 - -0.26 = +0.78)
8. Carlos Zambrano, SP, ChC (1.99 - 1.24 = +0.75)
9. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF (3.27 - 2.56 = +0.71)
10. Ryan Dempster, SP, ChC (1.92 - 1.28 = +0.64)

Here are 10 National League Pitchers who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Pitching categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Zach Duke, SP, Pit (0.84 - 1.88 = -1.04)
2. Jason Marquis, SP, Col (0.75 - 1.55 = -0.80)
3. Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD (1.91 - 2.61 = -0.70)
4. Livan Hernandez, SP, NYM (0.20 - 0.88 = -0.68)
5. Jeff Weaver, SP, LAD (0.01 - 0.60 = -0.59)
6. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cin (1.66 - 2.24 = -0.58)
7. Randy Wells, SP, ChC (0.43 - 1.00 = -0.57)
8. Chris Volstad, SP, Fla (0.51 - 1.02 = -0.51)
9. Brian Wilson, RP, SF (1.34 - 1.83 = -0.49)
10. Russ Ortiz, SP, Hou (0.06 - 0.55 = -0.49)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at AL Hitters in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.73 Sherpa Pts

2. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts

3. Cole Hamels (7) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 3.01 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 IP, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

4. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts

5. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Dempster (106) - ChC, SP

• Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.64 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.53 Sherpa Pts

7. Ricky Nolasco (N/A - didn’t even have him in my preseason database!) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 212.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 186 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: N/A

8. CC Sabathia (1 in A.L.) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 130.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 128 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Derek Lowe (16) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 211 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 147 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 207 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 138 K, 2.00 Sherpa Pts

10. Ben Sheets (28) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 198.1 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 137 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 121 K, 1.58 Sherpa Pts

Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

12. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

11. Roy Oswalt (4) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

99. John Smoltz (5) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

98. Aaron Harang (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 184.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153 K, 0.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 222 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

60. Chris Young (9) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 102.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K, 0.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

132. Rafael Soriano (10) - ATL, RP

• Actual stats: 14 IP, 0 W, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16 K, 0.24 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 34 SV, 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 76 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 6) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.59 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 2.78 Sherpa Pts
2. CC Sabathia (4) - CLE/MIL, SP
   • Actual stats: 253 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.14 Sherpa Pts
3. Cliff Lee (298) - CLE, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.33 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.26 Sherpa Pts
4. Tim Lincecum (50) -SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.85 Sherpa Pts
5. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP
   • Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts
6. Cole Hamels (21) - PHI, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
7. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts
8. Dan Haren (8) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
9. Ervin Santana (249) - LAA, SP
   • Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.42 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Dempster (198) - ChC, SP
    • Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.59 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks, and the number of Pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere (i.e. - Lee, Ervin Santana, and Dempster). Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see John Smoltz and J.J. Putz below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

16. Roy Oswalt (5) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

188. John Smoltz (7) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

150. J.J. Putz (9) - SEA, RP

• Actual stats: 46.1 IP, 6 W, 15 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 56 K, 0.63 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 71 IP, 3 W, 33 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, 2.32 Sherpa Pts

14. Mariano Rivera (10) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.31 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In my previous post I ranked the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters for the first quarter of the season. In this post I’ll do the same for Pitchers. The Sherpa Point system gives each Pitcher a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Pitchers’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Brandon Webb leads the league with 9 Wins, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the Wins category; a Pitcher with 6 Wins gets a score of 0.67; a Hitter with 3 Wins gets a score of 0.33, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9).

The maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further delay, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Pitchers:

1. Cliff Lee 3.34 (Preseason Projection was 0.26)
2. Brandon Webb 3.03 (3.23)
3. Cole Hamels 2.92 (2.50)
4. Edinson Volquez 2.77 (0.13)
5. Shaun Marcum 2.66 (0.93)
6. Tim Lincecum 2.59 (1.85)
7. Ervin Santana 2.50 (0.42)
8. Ryan Dempster 2.48 (0.59)
9. Carlos Zambrano 2.36 (2.34)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.34 (2.13)

Yes, it’s early, but even at this stage in the season it’s obvious that my Preseason Projections for Cliff Lee (50 IP, 3 Wins, 4.68 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP) were just a bit off. The Innings Pitched projection is obviously the driver - based on his performance the last 3 years, I didn’t believe he’d stick in the Indians’ rotation this year. Live and learn!

Webb and Hamels were in my Preseason Top 10, while Zambrano (13th), Matsuzaka (29th), and Lincecum (41st) all made my Preseason Top 50. However, the other 5 Pitchers on this list can all safely be termed “surprises”; I’ll venture a guess that if you have 2 or more of them on your roster (entirely possible), you’re probably sitting near the top of your league’s pitching standings.

Many notable names are missing from this list: Johan Santana (2.17 vs. Preseason Projection of 4.00); Jake Peavy (2.13 vs. 3.62); C.C. Sabathia (0.76 vs. 3.14); Roy Oswalt (0.61 vs 2.93); John Smoltz (1.41 vs. 2.70); Dan Haren (2.24 vs. 2.62); Aaron Harang (1.96 vs. 2.53); Erik Bedard (1.30 vs. 2.47). Just in case you’re curious, Jonathan Papelbon (1.89 vs 2.27), who ranks 24th Year-to-Date is the highest-ranked Closer; J.J. Putz (0.49 vs 2.32) was the highest-rated Closer (15th) in my Preseason Projections.

There is still plenty of time left for the Cliff Lees and the Ryan Dempsters to regress towards their expected values, and there’s plenty of time left for the C.C. Sabathias and Roy Oswalts to pitch the way most experts expected them to. I’ll be updating these rankings and comparisons for both Hitters and Pitchers periodically throughout the season.

Of course, lists like these are all well and good, but they don’t answer the obvious follow-up question: what should you expect these Hitters and Pitchers to do for the rest of the season?

I’ll begin to answer that question in a series of posts beginning early next week.

Until then,

The Sherpa