The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Matt Holliday’s Cardinals’ stats (he ranked 56th overall based on 235 At-Bats).

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 1) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 4.03 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.54 Sherpa Pts

2. Hanley Ramirez (3) - FLA, SS

• Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts

3. Ryan Braun (7) - MIL, OF

• Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

4. Prince Fielder (24) - MIL, 1B

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Kemp (2) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Howard (11) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

7. Chase Utley (16) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 565 AB, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, .285 AVG, 112 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 495 AB, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 11 SB, .309 AVG, 95 R, 2.66 Sherpa Pts

8. Troy Tulowitzki (67) - COL, SS

• Actual stats: 535 AB, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 20 SB, .299 AVG, 99 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 578 AB, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .268 AVG, 90 R, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Mark Reynolds (43) - ARI, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 567 AB, 44 HR, 101 RBI, 24 SB, .263 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 518 AB, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .263 AVG, 94 R, 2.14 Sherpa Pts

10. Derrek Lee (18) - CHC, 1B

• Actual stats: 525 AB, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, .309 AVG, 91 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 621 AB, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 12 SB, .296 AVG, 97 R, 2.64 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - Hanley Ramirez’ shift from first to third in the Marlins’ batting order had exactly the opposite effect from what I’d projected. Instead of increasing his power numbers at the expense of his batting average, the reverse occurred.  Also, it’s interesting to see how a higher-than-expected Stolen Base total can lead to a large spike in a player’s fantasy value (e.g.- Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. David Wright (4) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.35 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts

140. Jose Reyes (5) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.25 Sherpa Pts

77. Alfonso Soriano (6) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.24 Sherpa Pts

53. Carlos Beltran (8) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts

51. Manny Ramirez (9) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 344 AB, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, .294 AVG, 62 R, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 538 AB, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .320 AVG, 97 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

33. Lance Berkman (10) - HOU, 1B

• Actual stats: 449 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 7 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 549 AB, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 12 SB, .302 AVG, 103 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts 

We’re gearing up here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.38 Sherpa Pts

2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS

• Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.48 Sherpa Pts

4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF

• Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF

• Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.63 Sherpa Pts

6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 606 AB, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB, .284 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 553 AB, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 21 SB, .273 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.28 Sherpa Pts

9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 4 SB, .299 AVG, 104 R, 2.83 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 399 AB, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .261 AVG, 69 R, 1.45 Sherpa Pts

10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF

• Actual stats: 611 AB, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 14 SB, .285 AVG, 92 R, 2.73 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 592 AB, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 104 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 610 AB, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 AVG, 105 R, 2.71 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS

• Actual stats: 556 AB, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG, 76 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 684 AB, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 39 SB, .289 AVG, 128 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 453 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 76 R, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 39 HR, 85 RBI, 26 SB, .285 AVG, 110 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts

21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB, .291 AVG, 93 R, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 575 AB, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, .311 AVG, 100 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Major League Baseball GMs are not the only people concerned with trading deadlines this week - many fantasy team owners also have trading deadlines rapidly approaching. However, whether your league’s trading deadline is August 1st, September 1st, or even if your league doesn’t have a deadline, there are certain steps you should take before you play “let’s make a deal”:

1. Assess your potential point gain and loss in each scoring category your league uses. Be realistic (erring on the side of pessimism) - if the team one place ahead of you in the Stolen Base category has 30 more SBs than you do, you’re probably not going to catch them with just 1/3 of the season left, even if you trade today for Jose Reyes. Remember to consider potential point loss in each category too - gaining 2 points in SBs does you no good if you have to trade away a slugger whose departure will cost you 3-4 points in HRs in order to obtain the speed demon you crave.
2. Calculate your potential point swing in each category. If you have the potential to gain 2 points and lose 4 points in a particular category, then your potential point swing in that category is 6 points.
3. Determine your 2-3 Hitting and Pitching categories with the biggest potential point swings and make these categories your priority in seeking and evaluating potential trades.

Several related notes:

1. When assessing your team’s ability to gain/lose ground in each category, be sure to consider the impact of recent changes that other teams have made to their rosters. If the team one place ahead of you in the Home Run category just traded Jose Reyes for Ryan Howard, it’s a lot less likely you’ll catch them than if they just traded Ryan Howard for Jose Reyes.
2. Consider the correlations between categories as well (at least in a qualitative sense). Trading for a slugger is likely to help you in multiple categories (HRs, RBIs), whereas trading for a top base-stealer or a Closer is less likely to have a spillover effect in other categories.
3. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s easier to make up ground in average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, ERA, WHIP) than in counting categories (e.g. - HRs, SBs, Wins, Ks) just because a team’s results can move up or down in the average-based categories. While the latter statement is true, average-based categories are typically a function of a team’s year-to-date At-Bats (AB) or Innings Pitched (IP). As the season progresses, large gains/losses in a team’s average-based categories become increasingly less likely.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

With just over 25% of the 2008 season already in the books many experts are now putting forth their “Biggest Surprises” and “Biggest Disappointments” lists. I will do something similar in this post, but I will also give you the actual impact these players have had year-to-date in a league that uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories.

Let’s look at Hitters first. The Sherpa Point system gives each Hitter a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Hitters’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Lance Berkman leads the league with 16 HRs, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the HR category; a Hitter with 8 HRs gets a score of 0.50; a Hitter with 4 HRs gets a score of 0.25, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS)

The maximum Hitters’ score is equal to the number of hitting categories, and the maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further ado, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters:

1. Lance Berkman 4.13 (Preseason Projection was 2.80)
2. Chipper Jones 3.03 (2.58)
3. Dan Uggla 2.72 (1.89)
4. Josh Hamilton 2.70 (1.74)
5. Nate McLouth 2.69 (1.82)
6. Chase Utley 2.66 (3.22)
7. Hanley Ramirez 2.64 (3.41)
8. Albert Pujols 2.61 (3.32)
9. Carlos Quentin 2.55 (1.92)
10. Miguel Tejada 2.51 (2.38)

Berkman is obviously outperforming his projections by the largest amount so far (and will likely come back down to earth in short order), but Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, and Nate McLouth have probably offered the greatest value so far relative to where they were picked in drafts and the amount paid for them in auctions. Of the Top 10 shown here, only three (Utley, Ramirez, and Pujols) were among the Preseason Top 10 Hitters.

Many others who went in the first round of many drafts have not fared well in the early stages of the season. Consensus top-pick Alex Rodriguez (1.01 Year-to-Date vs. 3.84 Preseason Projection) and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (1.22 vs. 3.05) have missed significant time due to injuries. Other highly touted players who have disappointed their owners so far: Jose Reyes (1.73 vs. 2.98), David Wright (2.11 vs. 3.40), Ryan Braun (2.29 vs. 2.82), Miguel Cabrera (1.51 vs. 3.40), David Ortiz (1.88 vs. 3.44), Matt Holliday (2.17 vs. 3.56), Carl Crawford (2.18 vs. 3.19), Vladimir Guerrero (1.17 vs. 3.08), and Ryan Howard (1.08 vs. 3.07).

The discrepancy between a player’s Year-to-Date Sherpa Point score vs. his Preseason Projected Sherpa Point score can also be used as an indicator for constructing trade proposals. If you have a player on your team who is outperforming his projection by half a point or more, and you have several glaring weaknesses elsewhere on your roster, I would definitely be looking to sell high on that player. Conversely, if some of these players have disappointed other owners in your league, it may be worth inquiring about the possibility of buying low. If you can flip an overperforming player for an underperforming one, you have mastered the art of trading!

I’ll put together a similar list for Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa