We’re midway through Week 16; this week we’ve seen trade talks heat up and watched Donnie Baseball learn an obscure baseball rule the hard way. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 16 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
We’re heading towards the end of Week 15; this week we’ve already lost two iconic baseball figures (Bob Sheppard, George Steinbrenner) and seen an entertaining All-Star Game with an unusual outcome. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 15 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
We’re midway through Week 3, and injuries continue to take their toll on most fantasy squads. Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 3 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).
Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Cockroft
5,987
.284
193
843
180
946
Hertz
6,205
.275
209
893
101
885
Kreutzer
5,333
.276
156
729
156
792
Leibowitz
5,426
.281
207
768
139
828
Lombardo
4,082
.282
156
658
58
628
Melnick
5,313
.265
213
783
112
858
Pianowski
7,033
.272
263
1,062
73
1,002
Ravitz
6,003
.279
193
784
155
884
Schwartz
5,007
.285
190
731
83
762
Walton
5,787
.262
191
798
132
887
Wilderman
5,587
.276
178
767
156
838
Wilton
5,543
.268
180
745
107
733
Zola
5,252
.284
184
729
105
760
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Cockroft
1,220
68
31
4.06
1.27
1,130
Hertz
1,028
57
54
4.71
1.38
742
Kreutzer
1,416
82
0
4.18
1.30
1,017
Leibowitz
1,079
63
37
4.33
1.27
880
Lombardo
1,111
65
42
4.33
1.27
970
Melnick
1,078
58
12
4.51
1.31
989
Pianowski
1,156
62
65
3.99
1.33
1,014
Ravitz
1,068
63
72
3.80
1.25
942
Schwartz
954
54
74
4.25
1.30
786
Walton
1,243
69
38
4.60
1.28
981
Wilderman
995
53
55
4.67
1.32
928
Wilton
1,150
65
53
4.37
1.34
982
Zola
987
56
37
4.00
1.23
852
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Ravitz
44.5
52.5
97
Cockroft
56.5
36
92.5
Pianowski
45
35
80
Leibowitz
41
39
80
Walton
37
35
72
Schwartz
30
41
71
Hertz
42
28
70
Zola
26.5
42.5
69
Wilderman
33.5
26
59.5
Kreutzer
27.5
32
59.5
Melnick
37
20
57
Lombardo
14.5
38.5
53
Wilton
20
29.5
49.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Now that the 2008 baseball season is over, I wanted to share some exciting news with you - for the second year in a row I was the winner of SportsBuff.com’s fantasy baseball league for fantasy industry experts! My score also placed me in the Top 10 overall among all of the participants in SportsBuff.com’s fantasy baseball leagues - in many cases the fans do know more than the industry experts!
There were 33 other teams in the contest - other participants included Bob Radl of Sandlot Shrink, who writes very informative fantasy football and basketball analysis and obviously knows a lot about baseball too, and Scott Pianowski of Rotoaction.com, who also writes a highly informative and entertaining blog called “Closing Time” for Yahoo.
This particular contest was a salary cap game. It’s always interesting to debate whether these games require more skill than the more widely played rotisserie and head-to-head style games. Salary cap games typically require more in-season roster adjustments, but make it easier to replace an injured/underperforming player with a player of equal or greater ability. Rotisserie and head-to-head games typically put more emphasis on preseason player analysis and projections. From my perspective both are endlessly fascinating.
Thanks to SportsBuff.com’s Jeff Thomas and his team for putting on this contest year after year and giving those of us in the fantasy industry a chance to strut our stuff. I’ll be back again next season looking for a threepeat!!!