The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in an AL-only format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.71 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.00 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.61 (3.85, 1st)
3. Justin Duchscherer - 3.04 (2.80, 6th)
4. Ervin Santana - 2.72 (2.09, 20th)
5. James Shields - 2.58 (2.90, 4th)
6. Joe Saunders - 2.55 (1.64, 35th)
7. Mariano Rivera - 2.37 (2.80, 5th)
8. Mike Mussina - 2.32 (2.05, 21st)
9. Josh Beckett - 2.20 (2.78, 7th)
10. Felix Hernandez - 2.16 (2.77, 8th)
11. Scott Kazmir - 2.16 (2.67, 9th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. Roy Halladay - 3.85 (Year-to-Date score = 3.61 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd)
2. John Lackey - 3.21 (1.97, 19th)
3. Cliff Lee - 3.00 (3.71, 1st)
4. James Shields - 2.90 (2.58, 5th)
5. Mariano Rivera - 2.80 (2.37, 7th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.80 (3.04, 3rd)
7. Josh Beckett - 2.78 (2.20, 9th)
8. Felix Hernandez - 2.77 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
9. Scott Kazmir - 2.67 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.63 (1.94, 20th)

John Lackey’s year-to-date results are obviously hampered by the fact that he didn’t pitch his first regular season game until May 14th. Still, with three bad outings in his last four starts, he may be a buy-low candidate today. I would also consider Daisuke Matsuzaka a buy-low candidate at this point in the season. On the flip side, three Pitchers I would be looking to sell high on if I owned them: (1) Ervin Santana, (2) Joe Saunders, and (3) Mike Mussina.
In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an NL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard AL-only league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Ian Kinsler - 3.82 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.65 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Josh Hamilton - 3.34 (3.00, 9th)
3. Alex Rodriguez - 3.19 (4.35, 1st)
4. Grady Sizemore - 3.06 (3.22, 3rd)
5. Jermaine Dye - 2.98 (2.95, 11th)
6. Carlos Quentin - 2.90 (2.90, 12th)
7. Justin Morneau - 2.80 (3.07, 6th)
8. Dustin Pedroia - 2.76 (2.62, 25th)
9. Kevin Youkilis - 2.70 (2.63, 24th)
10. Ichiro Suzuki - 2.58 (3.08, 5th)

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 4.35 (Year-to-Date score = 3.19 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.65 (3.82, 1st)
3. Grady Sizemore - 3.22 (3.06, 4th)
4. Manny Ramirez - 3.16 (2.56, 11th)
5. Ichiro Suzuki - 3.08 (2.58, 10th)
6. Justin Morneau - 3.07 (2.80, 7th)
7. Miguel Cabrera - 3.00 (2.33, 18th)
8. Magglio Ordonez - 3.00 (2.35, 17th)
9. Josh Hamilton - 3.00 (3.34, 2nd)
10. Carl Crawford - 2.97 (2.17, 26th)

With fantasy league trading deadlines rapidly approaching, these lists can serve as a guide to potential sell high and buy low candidates. For example, if you currently own Josh Hamilton, and the Alex Rodriguez owner in your league is willing to trade A-Rod in a one-for-one deal for Hamilton, I’d do it in a heartbeat!

The other “sell high” candidates that jump out from the lists above are Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. If you’re looking for a “buy low” candidate, Carl Crawford is definitely a player worth pursuing for the home stretch.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 AL-only Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.60 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 2.48 Sherpa Points, which ranks 18th overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.45 (3.68, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.39 (3.59, 3rd)
4. CC Sabathia - 3.22 (3.69, 1st)
5. Brandon Webb - 2.94 (3.25, 5th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.93 (2.61, 13th)
7. Cole Hamels - 2.93 (2.96, 8th)
8. Tim Lincecum - 2.84 (2.44, 19th)
9. Ben Sheets - 2.67 (2.52, 17th)
10. Ervin Santana - 2.66 (2.03, 36th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. CC Sabathia - 3.69 (Year-to-Date score = 3.22 Sherpa Points, which ranks 4th)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.68 (3.45, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.59 (3.39, 3rd)
4. Johan Santana - 3.35 (2.32, 16th)
5. Brandon Webb - 3.25 (2.94, 5th)
6. Jake Peavy - 3.25 (2.16, 22nd)
7. John Lackey - 3.13 (1.88, 34th)
8. Cole Hamels - 2.96 (2.93, 7th)
9. Mariano Rivera - 2.83 (2.33, 15th)
10. James Shields - 2.69 (2.27, Tied for 17th)

As you would expect, there’s more of a difference between the Year-to-Date and Remainder-of-Season results for Pitchers than there is for Hitters. While hitting stats are somewhat team dependent (e.g. - RBI, Runs Scored), a Pitcher’s Wins are much more team dependent, which makes them more difficult to predict accurately.

In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an AL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Lance Berkman - 3.59 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.68 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.44 (3.22, 5th)
3. Josh Hamilton - 3.19 (2.76, 17th)
4. Hanley Ramirez - 3.16 (3.40, 4th)
5. Matt Holliday - 2.99 (3.64, 3rd)
6. Jose Reyes - 2.98 (3.07, 10th)
7. Ryan Braun - 2.96 (3.09, 8th)
8. Alex Rodriguez - 2.88 (3.84, 1st)
9. Chipper Jones - 2.84 (2.89, 15th)
10. David Wright - 2.82 (3.08, 9th) and Chase Utley - 2.82 (3.11, 7th).

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 3.84 (Year-to-Date score = 2.88 Sherpa Points, which ranks 8th)
2. Lance Berkman - 3.68 (3.59, 1st)
3. Matt Holliday - 3.64 (2.99, 5th)
4. Hanley Ramirez - 3.40 (3.16, 4th)
5. Albert Pujols - 3.22 (2.80, 12th)
6. Ian Kinsler - 3.22 (3.44, 2nd)
7. Chase Utley - 3.11 (2.82, Tied for 10th)
8. Ryan Braun - 3.09 (2.96, 7th)
9. David Wright - 3.08 (2.82, Tied for 10th)
10. Jose Reyes - 3.07 (2.98, 6th)

It’s very interesting to see the majority of the Hitters appear in both lists, indicating that over the course of a 162-game season, the top Hitters are generally the ones you would have expected to see at the top of this list before the season began.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Mixed League Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa