The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

In my previous post I ranked the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters for the first quarter of the season. In this post I’ll do the same for Pitchers. The Sherpa Point system gives each Pitcher a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Pitchers’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Brandon Webb leads the league with 9 Wins, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the Wins category; a Pitcher with 6 Wins gets a score of 0.67; a Hitter with 3 Wins gets a score of 0.33, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - ERA, WHIP, K/BB, K/9).

The maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further delay, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Pitchers:

1. Cliff Lee 3.34 (Preseason Projection was 0.26)
2. Brandon Webb 3.03 (3.23)
3. Cole Hamels 2.92 (2.50)
4. Edinson Volquez 2.77 (0.13)
5. Shaun Marcum 2.66 (0.93)
6. Tim Lincecum 2.59 (1.85)
7. Ervin Santana 2.50 (0.42)
8. Ryan Dempster 2.48 (0.59)
9. Carlos Zambrano 2.36 (2.34)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka 2.34 (2.13)

Yes, it’s early, but even at this stage in the season it’s obvious that my Preseason Projections for Cliff Lee (50 IP, 3 Wins, 4.68 ERA, and 1.43 WHIP) were just a bit off. The Innings Pitched projection is obviously the driver - based on his performance the last 3 years, I didn’t believe he’d stick in the Indians’ rotation this year. Live and learn!

Webb and Hamels were in my Preseason Top 10, while Zambrano (13th), Matsuzaka (29th), and Lincecum (41st) all made my Preseason Top 50. However, the other 5 Pitchers on this list can all safely be termed “surprises”; I’ll venture a guess that if you have 2 or more of them on your roster (entirely possible), you’re probably sitting near the top of your league’s pitching standings.

Many notable names are missing from this list: Johan Santana (2.17 vs. Preseason Projection of 4.00); Jake Peavy (2.13 vs. 3.62); C.C. Sabathia (0.76 vs. 3.14); Roy Oswalt (0.61 vs 2.93); John Smoltz (1.41 vs. 2.70); Dan Haren (2.24 vs. 2.62); Aaron Harang (1.96 vs. 2.53); Erik Bedard (1.30 vs. 2.47). Just in case you’re curious, Jonathan Papelbon (1.89 vs 2.27), who ranks 24th Year-to-Date is the highest-ranked Closer; J.J. Putz (0.49 vs 2.32) was the highest-rated Closer (15th) in my Preseason Projections.

There is still plenty of time left for the Cliff Lees and the Ryan Dempsters to regress towards their expected values, and there’s plenty of time left for the C.C. Sabathias and Roy Oswalts to pitch the way most experts expected them to. I’ll be updating these rankings and comparisons for both Hitters and Pitchers periodically throughout the season.

Of course, lists like these are all well and good, but they don’t answer the obvious follow-up question: what should you expect these Hitters and Pitchers to do for the rest of the season?

I’ll begin to answer that question in a series of posts beginning early next week.

Until then,

The Sherpa

With just over 25% of the 2008 season already in the books many experts are now putting forth their “Biggest Surprises” and “Biggest Disappointments” lists. I will do something similar in this post, but I will also give you the actual impact these players have had year-to-date in a league that uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories.

Let’s look at Hitters first. The Sherpa Point system gives each Hitter a score ranging from 0 to 1.00 in each of the 5 standard hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R). Essentially, the league leader in each category is given a score of 1.00, while all other Hitters’ scores in that category are calculated as the ratio of their result to the league leader’s result.

For example, if Lance Berkman leads the league with 16 HRs, he gets a Sherpa Point score of 1.00 in the HR category; a Hitter with 8 HRs gets a score of 0.50; a Hitter with 4 HRs gets a score of 0.25, etc. A proxy statistic is used for average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS)

The maximum Hitters’ score is equal to the number of hitting categories, and the maximum Pitchers’ score is equal to the number of pitching categories. Statistics are taken from games through Tues 5/20/08.

Without further ado, here’s the list of the Top 10 Year-to-Date 5×5 Mixed League Hitters:

1. Lance Berkman 4.13 (Preseason Projection was 2.80)
2. Chipper Jones 3.03 (2.58)
3. Dan Uggla 2.72 (1.89)
4. Josh Hamilton 2.70 (1.74)
5. Nate McLouth 2.69 (1.82)
6. Chase Utley 2.66 (3.22)
7. Hanley Ramirez 2.64 (3.41)
8. Albert Pujols 2.61 (3.32)
9. Carlos Quentin 2.55 (1.92)
10. Miguel Tejada 2.51 (2.38)

Berkman is obviously outperforming his projections by the largest amount so far (and will likely come back down to earth in short order), but Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, and Nate McLouth have probably offered the greatest value so far relative to where they were picked in drafts and the amount paid for them in auctions. Of the Top 10 shown here, only three (Utley, Ramirez, and Pujols) were among the Preseason Top 10 Hitters.

Many others who went in the first round of many drafts have not fared well in the early stages of the season. Consensus top-pick Alex Rodriguez (1.01 Year-to-Date vs. 3.84 Preseason Projection) and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (1.22 vs. 3.05) have missed significant time due to injuries. Other highly touted players who have disappointed their owners so far: Jose Reyes (1.73 vs. 2.98), David Wright (2.11 vs. 3.40), Ryan Braun (2.29 vs. 2.82), Miguel Cabrera (1.51 vs. 3.40), David Ortiz (1.88 vs. 3.44), Matt Holliday (2.17 vs. 3.56), Carl Crawford (2.18 vs. 3.19), Vladimir Guerrero (1.17 vs. 3.08), and Ryan Howard (1.08 vs. 3.07).

The discrepancy between a player’s Year-to-Date Sherpa Point score vs. his Preseason Projected Sherpa Point score can also be used as an indicator for constructing trade proposals. If you have a player on your team who is outperforming his projection by half a point or more, and you have several glaring weaknesses elsewhere on your roster, I would definitely be looking to sell high on that player. Conversely, if some of these players have disappointed other owners in your league, it may be worth inquiring about the possibility of buying low. If you can flip an overperforming player for an underperforming one, you have mastered the art of trading!

I’ll put together a similar list for Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa