The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Back in February when Alex Rodriguez admitted to having used steroids from 2001-2003 while with the Texas Rangers, I did an analysis of A-Rod’s career from a fantasy baseball perspective.  My goal was to determine whether A-Rod’s use of banned substances had a significant impact on his stats during his “Steroids Period”.

Here’s a summary of my findings:  ” . . . while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years . . .”

This summary would naturally lead you to one of two conclusions:  (1) the steroids did not have a significant impact on A-Rod’s performance, at least not on the baseball field (i.e. - the A-Rod version), or (2) A-Rod’s steroid use was most likely not confined to the three-year period in question (i.e.- the Selena Roberts version).

Today Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, apparently for testing positive for a banned substance related to off-the-field performance issues (and cycling off of steroids).  Once again, two conclusions are possible: (1) this was all just an honest mistake on the part of Manny and/or his doctor (i.e.- the dog ate my homework version, as Buster Olney referred to it today on ESPN.com), or (2) A-Rod is not the only active big-name player who has used performance-enhancing drugs (i.e.- the common sense version).

Whichever conclusion you wish to believe, I thought it would be interesting to view Manny’s career accomplishments through the same prism I applied to A-Rod’s back in February.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Manny Ramirez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1995 (max possible score is 5.00):

 

• 1995:  2.64
• 1996:  2.59
• 1997:  2.33
• 1998:  2.79
• 1999:  3.31
• 2000:  2.82
• 2001:  2.35
• 2002:  2.83
• 2003:  3.03
• 2004:  2.93
• 2005:  3.09
• 2006:  2.38
• 2007:  1.78
• 2008:  3.22

As was the case with A-Rod, Manny’s stats have shown a fair amount of year-to-year variation, which is to be expected.  However, unlike A-Rod, Manny was not a bona fide superstar in his first full year in the league.  To be fair, some of that is attributable to the fact that A-Rod has always been more active on the basepaths than Manny (whose career high for SBs was 8 in his 2nd season in the league), and he’s also consistently scored more runs than Manny.  A-Rod’s higher runs scored could be attributable to being more active on the basepaths, having better “RBI guys” hitting behind him in the lineup, and especially to the fact that A-Rod’s consistently played more games in a season than Manny.

Coincidentally (or maybe not), both A-Rod and Manny had big power spikes in 1998 (Manny’s 4th full season; A-Rod’s 3rd).  A-Rod’s HR total jumped from 23 in 1997 to 42 in 1998, while Manny’s increased from 26 in 1997 to 45 in 1998.  Coincidentally (or maybe not), 1998 was also the year that Mark McGwire’s HR total increased from 34 to 70, and Sammy Sosa’s increased from 36 to 66.

Manny’s career stats are more difficult to evaluate than A-Rod’s, primarily due to his having missed major chunks of time in four seasons (2000, 2002, 2006, and 2007), while A-Rod has missed significant amounts of time in just two seasons prior to this one (1999, 2008).  Also, since we don’t have a “confession” yet from Manny, we can’t really compare his performance from one period of his career with the rest of his career, the way we can with A-Rod.

Yet one thing is clear in both A-Rod’s and Manny’s cases.  A-Rod had the two best seasons of his career from a fantasy perspective in 2005 (the season he turned 30) and 2007 (the season he turned 32).  Manny had the second best season of his career in 2008 (the season he turned 36).  Yes, they are both supremely talented players.  Yes, knowledge regarding both nutrition and conditioning are much more advanced than they were a generation ago.  And yes, there is historical precedent for All-Star players performing at a high level well into their 30s - Willie Mays didn’t drop off until the season he turned 35, and Hank Aaron was still productive at age 38.

However, given that both A-Rod and Manny have tested positive for banned substances at the same time they were turning in some of the best performances of their career, it’s almost impossible to believe that any of their accomplishments were done without the aid of performance-enhancing drugs.  That’s one of the few things that even Yankee fans and Red Sox fans can agree on.

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.  Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.

 

Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.  What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?  Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.

 

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

 

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):

 

• 1996:  3.70
• 1997:  2.37
• 1998:  3.63
• 1999:  2.57
• 2000:  3.29
• 2001:  3.35
• 2002:  3.67
• 2003:  3.34
• 2004:  2.87
• 2005:  3.89
• 2006:  2.77
• 2007:  3.80
• 2008:  2.92

 

The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.  In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!

 

Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.  Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.

 

I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:  .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.  When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.  However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?  will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.

 

Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In leagues that allow weekly lineup changes many fantasy baseball team owners choose to rotate different starting pitchers each week through the same roster spot. Commonly known as streaming, this practice usually involves looking for pitchers with either two starts or one very favorable match-up during the upcoming week.

How do you assess which pitchers have the most favorable match-ups? There are three main criteria to consider: (1) the quality of the pitcher you’re considering, (2) the quality of the pitcher’s probable pitching opponent(s), and (3) the opposing team’s strength in the areas relevant to your league’s pitching categories.

Most fantasy team owners are fairly confident in their ability to assess the first two factors. However, most owners don’t give sufficient consideration to the opposing team’s capabilities. Some owners make a quick, qualitative judgment (e.g. – the Royals’ offense stinks) and move on. Others focus on a statistics that either don’t tell the whole story by themselves (e.g. – batting average, number of runs scored), or worse yet, may have limited relevance (e.g. – number of home runs hit, unless HR Allowed is one of your pitching categories).

Fortunately, teams’ strength in the areas relevant to your league’s pitching categories can be quantified and used to your advantage. Let’s assume that you’re playing in a league that uses the standard five pitching categories (Wins, Saves, ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts). Obviously, Saves aren’t a consideration in selecting your starting pitchers. We want to find teams that combine a low number of wins, runs scored, and hits + walks with a high number of strikeouts.

The Sherpa Points system involves assigning each team a score between 0 and 1.00 in each category, then summing across categories to get an overall score. The calculations are straightforward for counting categories in which we want the opposing team to have a low score (e.g. – Wins, Runs Scored, Walks+Hits). The team with the highest total in each category receives a score of 1.00; a team with 75% of the leading team’s total would receive a score of .75, a team with 50% of the leading team’s total would receive a score of .50, etc. For counting categories such as Ks (where lower values are better for hitting teams) or average-based categories such as K/BB or K/9, you can choose a proxy statistic that can be minimized. Again, we want to be able to minimize all the opponents’ statistics that we’re considering.

I performed season-to-date rankings based on this system for the 30 teams through the games of Thursday, 6/5/08. If you’re trying to find the best teams to stream a starting pitcher against, you want the teams with the lowest total scores. Here are the results of my study (ranked from most favorable team to pitch against to least favorable):

1. Kansas City Royals 2.96

2. Seattle Mariners 2.98

3. Washington Nationals 3.00

4. Colorado Rockies 3.07

5. San Francisco Giants 3.08

6. San Diego Padres 3.10

7. Cleveland Indians 3.15

8. Baltimore Orioles 3.18

9. Detroit Tigers 3.19

10. Los Angeles Dodgers 3.26

11. Florida Marlins 3.33

12. Milwaukee Brewers 3.33

13. Cincinnati Reds 3.34

14. Houston Astros 3.37

15. Arizona Diamondbacks 3.37

16. New York Mets 3.37

17. Chicago White Sox 3.39

18. New York Yankees 3.39

19. Tampa Bay Rays 3.40

20. Minnesota Twins 3.41

21. Pittsburgh Pirates 3.42

22. Oakland A’s 3.43

23. Toronto Blue Jays 3.45

24. Los Angeles Angels 3.46

25. Atlanta Braves 3.59

26. St. Louis Cardinals 3.74

27. Philadelphia Phillies 3.75

28. Texas Rangers 3.78

29. Boston Red Sox 3.87

30. Chicago Cubs 3.97

There are a number of surprises on this list (e.g. – Twins, Pirates, A’s, and Angels), but it can serve as a fairly informative guide if you’re trying to decide among several starting pitchers that you have rated fairly evenly for the upcoming week.

This approach can be used for either points-based leagues or roto-style leagues; just be sure that the categories you choose are relevant to your league. For example, if your league also uses Home Runs Allowed as a pitching category, Baltimore, Florida, and Milwaukee would become less desirable opponents.

You can update this analysis as often as you see fit. I don’t expect that the results would change significantly from week to week, but I would expect meaningful changes over time periods of a month or longer.

And oh yes, the Royals’ offense does indeed stink.

 

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Many fantasy baseball team owners engage in the practice of streaming - i.e. - identifying and placing players in their lineups who have favorable match-ups for the next scoring period rather than going with the same lineup each week. While streaming can be used for hitters, it is used most often with starting pitchers, especially with those who have two starts scheduled during the upcoming week.

Some owners are content to go enter the season with a staff of mediocre starting pitchers; these owners make a decision to spend most of their auction dollars or early-round draft picks on hitters. For these owners streaming their starting pitchers is a deliberate strategy. However, many owners are forced to stream, either due to injuries or the trade of a pitcher out of the AL or NL in an “only” league.

Either way, owners who stream at least one of their starting pitching spots are seeking to optimize the production from that spot. How should you go about doing this? Obviously, the underlying ability of the available pitchers is one key criterion, but depending on how deep your league is, there often isn’t much to choose from on the free agent list/waiver wire.

The second criterion, which doesn’t get as much attention as it should, and typically varies much more than the ability of the available starting pitchers, is the underlying ability of a pitcher’s upcoming opponents. Owners often make quick, qualitative stabs in this direction (e.g. - “Great! This pitcher has two starts this week, and they’re against Kansas City and Seattle!”), but rarely do owners actually seek to quantify their intuition.

One method to rank teams’ offenses involves identifying key offensive categories, such as Runs Scored (R), Home Runs (HR), Stolen Bases (SB), On Base Percentage (OBP), and Strikeouts (K), then seeing how the 30 teams compare in each of these categories and in aggregate. The Sherpa Points system involves assigning each team a score between 0 and 1.00 in each category, then summing across categories to get an overall score. I prefer to weight the categories evenly, but you could easily modify this method to give the categories varying weights.

The calculations are straightforward for the “counting categories” such as HR, R, and SB: the team with the highest total in each category receives a score of 1.00; a team with 75% of the leading team’s total would receive a score of .75, a team with 50% of the leading team’s total would receive a score of .50, etc. For counting categories such as Ks (where lower scores are better) or average-based categories such as OBP, a proxy statistic must be used. I realize that there is a fair amount of overlap among the 5 categories I’ve chosen, but I have not made any adjustments to correct for these correlations.

I performed the year-to-date rankings based on this system for the 30 teams through the games of Saturday, 5/24/08. If you’re trying to find the best teams to stream a starting pitcher against, you want the teams with the lowest total scores. Here are the results of my study (ranked from most favorable team to pitch against to least favorable):

1. Washington Nationals 3.10
2. San Diego Padres 3.18
3. Kansas City Royals 3.19
4. Cleveland Indians 3.35
5. Oakland A’s 3.49
6. New York Yankees 3.53
7. Baltimore Orioles 3.58
8. Pittsburgh Pirates 3.59
9. Chicago White Sox 3.60
10. Toronto Blue Jays 3.61
11. San Francisco Giants 3.63
12. Minnesota Twins 3.66
13. Atlanta Braves 3.68
14. Arizona Diamondbacks 3.69
15. Detroit Tigers 3.74
16. Seattle Mariners 3.76
17. St. Louis Cardinals 3.77
18. Florida Marlins 3.82
19. Colorado Rockies 3.83
20. Milwaukee Brewers 3.85
21. Los Angeles Dodgers 3.86
22. Cincinnati Reds 3.92
23. New York Mets 3.92
24. Los Angeles Angels 3.96
25. Tampa Bay Rays 4.05
26. Texas Rangers 4.23
27. Chicago Cubs 4.24
28. Philadelphia Phillies 4.32
29. Boston Red Sox 4.43
30. Houston Astros 4.46

There are a number of surprises on this list, but generally, it can serve as a fairly informative guide if you’re looking to select a starting pitcher to stream for the coming week or two. The results can be used to guide your decisions in points-based leagues as well as roto-style leagues.

I’ll update this analysis several times during the course of the season, and as promised in my previous post, during the coming week I will begin forecasting remainder of season stats for a number of players off to surprisingly good/bad starts.

Enjoy your holiday weekend!

The Sherpa