The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Highlights from Weeks 8-10:  Following Roy Halladay’s perfect game at the end of Week 8, Armando Galarraga pitched an imperfect game in Week 9.  No truth to the rumor that the Hall of Fame called to request Jim Joyce’s arms.  At least Galarraga won’t be called “Andres” any more (we hope).  In the last week and a half baseball said good-bye to The Kid, hello to The Natural, and prepared for the highly-anticipated debuts of three mega-prospects (and no, I’m not talking about Jesus Feliciano).  By the way, if you missed Roy Halladay’s perfect game, plenty of good seats are still available! (unfortunately, this trend seems to be catching on). 

Thoughts from Weeks 8-10

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Grady Sizemore (out for the season), Gregg Zaun (ditto), Kendry Morales (out for the season after one of the strangest injuries you’ll ever see), Nelson Cruz (an encore performance), Jacoby Ellsbury (ditto), Jimmy Rollins, Travis Snider, Takashi Saito, Alfredo Simon, Derek Holland, Oliver Perez (???), Aramis Ramirez, Nate McLouth, Jason Bulger, Marcus Thames, and Gabe Kapler, just to name a few.  Consider Austin Kearns, Nick Hundley, Lyle Overbay, Jason Donald, Angel Pagan, Michael Wuertz, Manny Parra, Trevor Cahill, Kevin Kouzmanoff (more on him in a bit), Melky Cabrera, Aaron Heilman, Ryan Sweeney, and Darnell McDonald as potential replacements.

• Son of Slam - Jorge Posada made his 250th home run a memorable one, belting the eighth grand slam of his career on Saturday in the Yankees’ victory over the Astros.  Just for good measure he hit his 251st career home run and ninth grand slam (warning: annoying audio accompanying the video) on Sunday in yet another Yankee victory over the ‘Stros.  At this rate Posada will break Lou Gehrig’s career grand slam mark of 23 in early July.  For dramatic effect neither one of Posada’s slams could touch the Saturday slam belted by Red Sox rookie outfielder Daniel Nava on the first pitch he saw in his major league career (not bad: one pitch, one curtain call)!  It’s only the fourth time in MLB history that a player has hit a grand slam in his first at-bat, and only the second time it’s happened on the first pitch (Kevin Kouzmanoff was the other in 2006).  Oddly, one of the two other players to hit a first career at-bat grand slam was Jeremy Hermida, the player Nava replaced in the Red Sox lineup (Hermida was a Marlin when he accomplished the feat in 2005).

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - The floodgates have officially opened:  Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln have all made their debuts within the last two weeks, and Neil Walker has also been making a name for himself in his brief time in The Show.  Pedro Alvarez, Brett Wallace, Madison Bumgarner and Tyler Flowers will all likely be up soon too.

• Welcome back! - Max Scherzer, Ryan Raburn, and Danny Worth are all back with the Tigers after brief stays in the minors.  Pat Burrell had a mini-vacation after being released by the Rays, but he’s now a proud member of the San Francisco Giants.  Chris Capuano has completed an amazing journey back to the big leagues, even though it looks like his stay in the Brewers’ rotation was a short one.  Jesse Litsch also pitched Saturday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but the results weren’t pretty.  Chad Tracy is back with the Cubs, and Emilio Bonifacio is once again a Marlin.  Finally, St. Louis, which has a well-earned reputation as the MLB equivalent of The Land of Misfit Toys, opened its arms to Jeff Suppan and Randy Winn, who were recently let go by the Brewers and Yankees, respectively.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Matt LaPorta and Josh Reddick.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The A’s designated Jake Fox for assignment Sunday after not giving him much of a chance to showcase the power the offensively challenged team desperately needs.  Go figure.  Mark Grudzielanek, Saul Rivera, Mike Lamb, Chris Coste, and Gary Matthews Jr have all likely played their last MLB game for some time, if not forever.

• Closer roulette - Most of the recent closer intrigue has been in the NL.  Huston Street’s return date has been pushed back yet again, so hold on to Manny Corpas.  In Philadelphia Brad Lidge has regained the closer role from Jose Contreras.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to struggle, and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before the D-backs make a trade for a new closer or give Aaron Heilman a shot.  John Axford has settled in as the Brew Crew’s closer, and Brandon Lyon is filling in for Matt Lindstrom in Houston while the latter rests a bad back.  Alfredo Simon should return this week for the Orioles, and Brian Fuentes continues to hold off Fernando Rodney in Los Angeles Anaheim.  Finally, things are still a mess on the South Side of Chicago, where manager Ozzie Guillen may be gone before Bobby Jenks finally cedes his spot to J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, or Sergio Santos.

• Role play  - As noted above Jorge Posada has returned to the Yankees, but Francisco Cervelli will likely continue to see the bulk of the starts at catcher to give Posada time to heal on the job.  Hanley Ramirez is back in the Marlins’ third spot after a brief encore performance as a leadoff hitter.  Carlos Guillen has settled in as the Tigers everyday second baseman, and Manny Parra has been placed back in the Brewers’ rotation. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play redux - Interleague play will wreak havoc with fantasy lineups yet again this week.  Five AL teams (Bal, CWS, Oak, TB, and Tex) will be without their designated hitter spot all week as they play six games in NL parks.  Try to find alternatives if your lineup includes Luke Scott, Mark Kotsay, Jack Cust, Hank Blalock, or Vlad Guerrero.  On the other hand Arizona and the NY Mets both play six games in AL parks, which means that Gerado Parra and Chris Carter will likely have more fantasy value than usual.  

• Streaming pitchers - Most fantasy owners who rely on streaming pitchers to maximize their innings pitched make a quick qualitative judgment about both the pitcher’s ability and the strength of the opposing team’s offense.  To take some of the guesswork out of the process, analyze a team’s offensive stats the same way you would analyze the offensive stats of a hitter you are thinking of adding to your roster.  Obviously, the process works in reverse when analyzing teams rather than individual hitters:  instead of looking for teams that hit lots of homers, steal lots of bases, and hit for a high average, you’re looking for the exact opposite.  This process is far from fool-proof, but if applied consistently over a length of time, it can help you identify pitchers with the most favorable upcoming match-ups. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 11!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re at the end of Week 10, and most of the big-name prospects have finally been called up to The Show.  This Strasburg kid looks like he might be pretty good.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 10 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 9, and the rate of perfect games (and perfect games with imperfect umpiring) is making fantasy owners’ heads spin!  At least the Tigers got to avoid a Kendry Morales-style celebration.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 9 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 9!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Tags: fantasy baseball sherpa, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fan page on Facebook, Fantasy Windup, fantasy_sherpa, Steve Gardner, The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog, The Sherpa, USA Today

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 8, and that squirrel on the field in Minnesota isn’t the only one going nuts - so are the fantasy owners who had Coco Crisp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jimmy Rollins, and Alfredo Simon, among others.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 8 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 8!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 7, and we’ve already lost Josh Beckett, Andre Ethier, Jorge Posada, and Asdrubal Cabrera to the DL this week,  to name just a few.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 7 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

A couple of big fantasy baseball names were placed on the DL this afternoon - one hitter & one pitcher; both fom the American League.

 If you’re looking for an outfielder to replace Grady Sizemore, consider Corey Patterson, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Hermida.

 If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to replace Josh Beckett, consider Bronson Arroyo, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield.

Hope your week is going well! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 6 highlights:  It’s nice to see the Reds and Padres in first place.  Of course, we all know that those two teams will win their divisions again when pigs fly, hell freezes over, and Omar Vizquel DHs.  Oh, wait (is Ozzie trying to get fired?) . . . Meanwhile, we saw two additional violations of the unspoken rule that players should never question a team’s medical staff.  Mark DeRosa started to question some things prior to hitting the DL with his wrist injuy, while Pat Neshek was chastised by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire for venting his frustrations on “the Tweeter”.  Rockies manager Jim Tracy and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel engaged in a war of words over the Phillies alleged sign-stealing using binoculars (how quaint - don’t they have an iPhone app for that yet?)

Thoughts from Week 6

• Hurt locker - Brad Lidge, Mark DeRosa, Travis Snider, Justin Duchscherer, John Baker, Scott Harrison, Matt Diaz, and Doug Davis were among the new arrivals on the DL this week.  Andre Ethier’s broken pinkie will probably have a bigger impact on fantasy leagues than all the previous injuries combined, but he hasn’t been placed on the DL yet (stay tuned, and don’t start him this week if you have other options).  Jonathan Niese isn’t on the DL yet, but given his past hamstring problems, the Mets could well be hamstrung again.  Monday night injuries include Asdrubal Cabrera (sounds like he’s probably headed for the DL) and Hanley Ramirez (sounds like he probably isn’t).  Consider Jose Contreras, Andres Torres, Michael Saunders, Kris Medlen, Ronny Paulino, Brennan Boesch, Eric Hinske, Wade LeBlanc, Austin Kearns, Jake Westbrook, Ramon Santiago, and Cristian Guzman as possible replacements.   

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - Super Twos Day has yet to arrive (as Potter Stewart once remarked, “I can’t define it, but I’ll know it when I see it”), but the Nationals called up closer-in-waiting Drew Storen on Monday to help bolster a bullpen that consists of Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard (who’s still tied for the MLB lead in wins!), and a bunch of chicken wire.  Barring trades, injuries, or arms falling off, Storen isn’t likely to close this season, but if you have a bench spot you can afford to speculate with or play in a keeper league, he’s worth a shot.  The Yankees called up 1B/DH Juan Miranda, but even though Nick Johnson will reportedly be out until late July/early August, look for the Yankees to rotate position players through the DH spot (especially Jorge Posada) or trade for a veteran rather than use Miranda regularly.

• Welcome back! - Hank Blalock, Jack Cust, and Corey Patterson have all been called up after proving they had nothing left to prove in the minors and showing they deserved another chance in The Show.  Armando Galarraga and Eugenio Velez don’t fit into that category; nevertheless, they’re also back in the bigs.  Even if you’re not a Rockies fan it was still great to see Jeff Francis pitch well Sunday in his first big league appearance since 2008.  I don’t know whether he can be a consistent winner/fantasy contributor again, but I’m willing to take the risk (even in a deep mixed league) to find out. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors this week were Max Scherzer, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore (yes, the Tigers were on the rampage), and Kila Ka’aihue.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The Rays finally cut the cord with Pat Burrell, whose days as an everyday player appear to be over.  Even if he catches on somewhere else as a DH, he’s unlikely to play enough (or well enough) to warrant consideration in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.

• Closer roulette - Most of the closer intrigue this week played out in the NL.  Huston Street has suffered a setback, so it’s likely Manny Corpas will be Colorado’s closer for the foreseeable future.  As mentioned above, Washington has called up Drew Storen, but Matt Capps is in no imminent danger of losing his job.  Also mentioned above, Philadelphia has been forced to put Brad Lidge back on the DL, and even though J.C. Romero got the save Sunday night, it appears that Jose Contreras will receive most of the save opportunities until Lidge retuns.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to close arteries as well as games, but unless you’re a huge Aaron Heilman fan, there’s no reason to speculate at this point on anyone else in the D-backs’ abysmal bullpen.  No further clarity on the White Sox’ closer situation - Bobby Jenks is still “the closer”, but Matt Thornton also converted a save opportunity this week.  However, if you own either J.J. Putz or Sergio Santos, don’t cut them loose yet - they’re still in the mix.  Still no definite return date for Mike Gonzalez in Baltimore, and the way Alfredo Simon has been pitching (with the notable exception of his first blown save), it’s not a given that Gonzalez will be reinstalled as the closer immediately upon his return.

• Role play  - Jose Reyes will assume his rightful spot at the top of the Mets batting order.  His fantasy value increases marginally on the basis of gaining an extra 30 at-bats over the remainder of the season (vs. batting third in the order); look for his average, stolen bases, and runs scored to increase as well.  Brendan Ryan will apparently lose his job as the Cardinals everyday shortstop when Felipe Lopez returns from the DL this week.  Don’t get too comfortable though if you’re a Skip Schumaker owner: unless he starts to hit soon, Lopez may cut into his playing time as well.  Yunel Escobar’s return from the DL will reduce Omar Infante’s playing time in Atlanta.  Hank Blalock takes over for Pat Burrell as Tampa Bay’s primary DH (sorry, Willy Aybar owners).  Due to outfield injuries in Atlanta and San Francisco, Eric Hinske and Andres Torres are playing more often than not; NL-only owners, take note. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play - This week marks the start of that favorite time of year for baseball “purists” near and far:  interleague games.  The bane of many mixed league and AL-only owners existence (especially those who play in head-to-head leagues), interleague games played in AL parks offer a special bonus for those in NL-only leagues.  Rejoice if you own players on Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida, San Francisco, and San Diego.  Doublecheck your lineups if you own a DH-type on Boston (David Ortiz), Baltimore (Luke Scott), the New York Yankees (Marcus Thames), Tampa Bay (Hank Blalock), the Los Angeles Angels (Hideki Matsui), Toronto (Adam Lind), and Detroit (Johnny Damon).  It’s possible some of these players may be used in the field, but certainly don’t count on that being the case for all three games next weekend.  You have been warned.

• Memoryless - As I’ve written in the past, a fantasy team owner’s success (or lack thereof) depends just as much, if not more so, on psychology as it does on actual knowledge of baseball players and teams.  Here’s yet another example.  Suppose you are the Sherpa a fantasy team owner who shall remain nameless.  A couple of weeks ago Kila Ka’aihue was called up from the minors, and you saw an opportunity to get more power out of your Corner Infield spot than Brendan Harris could ever possibly hope to provide.  So, you splurged and spent $2 or $3 of your $100 FAAB money to add Ka’aihue to your roster.  You’re feeling pretty good about your team’s newest acquisition; after all, he has a track record of success as a minor league power hitter, and the Royals could definitely use another power hitter in their lineup (please take a seat, Mitch Maier, your sunflower seeds will be here shortly).  Besides, why would any team, even one that has a history of head-scratching moves such as the Royals, call a player up from the minors just to sit on the bench?  Only that’s exactly what happens.  You think to yourself, “How could this be?  This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever?  Who are the real-life idiots that make these decisions?”  A week goes by, and you have the opportunity to bid on Hank Blalock, who’s just been called up to the majors, has a track record of success at the major league level, and is replacing a player who’s actually been released (so long, Pat Burrell).  Should you (a) bid aggressively on Blalock and view him as a replacement for Ka’aihue?  (b) make a half-hearted bid for Blalock, come up short, and then rationalize your mealy-mouthed/chicken-livered bid by telling yourself that Ka’aihue will still get his chance and prove you right? or (c) pass altogether on bidding for Blalock? (after all, why would anyone spend their FAAB money two weeks in a row to fill the same roster spot?  Of course, the correct answer is (a).  Almost all of us would agree with that, at least in theory.  Yet in practice many people would choose (b) or (c) because they would view (a) as an admission that they made a mistake last week.  Get over it.  Even the best fantasy owners make moves that turn out to be mistakes.  What distinguishes the more successful fantasy owners from those who aren’t as successful is the ability to admit mistakes when necessary, move on, and try again. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page