The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 21!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

Hard to believe, but we’ve got less than a quarter of the season to go!  Players continue to drop like flies, and even though several stars returned this week, chances are you’re hurting somewhere on your fantasy roster.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 20 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

2 quick public service announcements before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherp a.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done two already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Week 18:  In this season of no-hitters, Brandon Morrow’s one-hitter yesterday may actually be this year’s best pitching perfomance.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters keep bashing homers at a prodigious pace.  Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run (although hardly anyone noticed/cared) but was then injured in yet another freak accident on the field in a season full of them.  Trevor Hoffman re-emerged as the Brewers’ co-closer, although no one expect s this arrangement to last any longer than it takes Hoffman to get to 600 saves.

Thoughts from Week 18

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Andrew Bailey, Nyjer Morgan, Todd Martin, John Buck, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana (out for the season), Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis (out for the season).  Consider J.J. Putz, Mike Morse, Jason Kendall, Josh Thole, Luke Scott, Jonathan Lucroy, Lastings Milledge, and Casey Kotchman as potential replacements.  David Freese, who’s been on the DL but had hoped to return, has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Brett Wallace, Ryan Kalish, Mike Minor, J.P. Arencibia, Peter Bourjos, Chris Carter (A’s version), and Chris Sale have all been called up to the bigs recently for the f irst time.

• Welcome back! - Kila Ka’aihue is back in the majors, hopefully for an extended stay this time.  Carlos Delgado has been signed to a minor league contract by the Red Sox and will presumably be up with Boston as soon as he’s deemed to be “in shape”.  Dan Johnson and Fernando Martinez are among other familiar names recently called back up to the majors. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Situations can change quickly in baseball.  In Spring Training the Rangers were trying to figure out how they could fit both of their first base prospects, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, into their lineup at the same time.  Smoak is now with the Mariners (some would argue that still constitutes the minors) and has recently been sent down because he was being outplayed by Casey Kotchman.  Davis has been unproductive (to p ut it kindly) in two separate stints with the Rangers this season, and they recently farmed him out so that the newly-acquired Jorge Cantu could play first every day.  A similar situation exists with Texas’ catchers, but that’s not as interesting, so we’ll leave that alone.  It’s a wonder they’re still in first place.  Jose Guillen and Garret Anderson were both DFA’d this week; Guillen will likely latch on with a contender seeking a bat off the bench, while there’s a good chance the classy Anderson’s career has finally drawn to a close.  Alex Cora is no longer a Met, and Kenshin Kawakami and John Mayberry were sent down to the minors by their respective clubs.

• Closer roulette - With Andrew Bailey on the DL Michael Wuertz should see the majority of the save opportunities forr Oakland.  Bobby Jenks has a bad back, but don’t look for the White Sox to use J.J. Pu tz or Matt Thornton as the closer once Jenks regains his health.  With Juan Gutierrez on the DL Aaron Heilman is back as the D-backs’ closer, but keep an eye on Jordan Norberto if when Heilman struggles.  Matt Capps’ recent trade has caused shuffling in both the Nationals’ and the Twins’ bullpen.  Drew Storen figures to get the bulk of the save chances eventually for the Nats, but he may have to split opportunities with Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and possibly even Joel Peralta in the short-term.  Jon Rauch has been relegated to the role of (almost) seven-foot set-up man in Minnesota.  With Octavio Dotel now pitching for the Dodgers Joel Hanrahan (once the Nats’ closer) has taken over as the closer in Pittsburgh, while Evan Meek will continue to press his nose against the glass.  As mentioned above, Trevor Hoffman is back (briefly) as the Brewers’ (co-)closer in what can only be desc ribed as a crass publicity stunt shrewd move to take the pressure off rookie John Axford.  Finally, Kerry Wood’s departure from Cleveland has made Chris Perez the default closer for the Tribe.  Which would be a good thing except for the fact the Indians haven’t provided many save opportunities this season, and Perez has yet to look comfortable as a closer in several previous cameos.

• Role play  - Miguel Tejada’s arrival in San Diego has rendered Everth Cabrera useless for fantasy purposes.  Ryan Doumit’s return from the DL means that recent arrival Chris Snyder’s value is down the dain.  After today’s Jim Edmonds-Chris Dickerson trade the Reds’ outfield situation remains a mess, as Edmonds, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Jonny Gomes will essentially share two outfield spots.  The Brewers’ outfield situation is a bit clearer, but not by much.& nbsp; Chris Dickerson will take over from Lorenzo Cain as the primary fill-in while Carlos Gomez is on the DL.  It’s anybody’s guess what happens when Gomez returns.  Many saw Lance Berkman’s trade to the Yankees as a boon to his fantasy value, but I strongly disagree.  Yes, he’s hitting in a much more potent lineup, but he’ll give way to Marcus Thames at DH when a southpaw is on the mound - the lost at-bats will more than offset the gain from hitting in a better lineup.  Mike Lowell takes over as the Red Sox’ first baseman until Carlos Delgado is ready to take over as the Red Sox’ first baseman. 

Strategy Corner

• Analyzing fantasy categories/maximizing fantasy points - There are obviously lots of ways to do this for a roto league, but here’s one I like alot.  For each category your league uses, write down both the number of points you could gain and the number you could lose in the next week.  Then add together the absolute value of those numbers to get the potential “swing”.  For example, if you could gain 1 point and lose 3 points in AVG in the next week, write down 4 for that category.  Repeat for each category.  The higher the potential point swing, the higher priority you should give to that category when evaluating potential trades, lineup decisions, and free agent pickups.  Some will ask “Who cares about how many points I could lose?  I just want to gain points!”  So do we all, but the fact remains that many players excel in one or two categories and are mediocre (or worse) in the remaining ones.  Preventing the loss of points in one category will help you just as much as a gain of points in another (i.e. - it’s only the net effect of all the gains and losses we care about).  I choose the one-week evaluation period for two reasons: (1) at this point in the season there’s not much time left, so it makes sense to take a shorter-term view than you would earlier in the season, and (2) injuries and especially minor league call-ups will dilute the player pool in September, making it more difficult (at least in theory) to make up ground then than it is now.  Of course, the later you get in the season, the harder it is to move your results in the average-based categories because of the ever-increasing base of AB or IP.

• ERA/WHIP management - Towards the end of the season many owners, even experienced ones, let their guard down and begin to chase Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts while neglecting the impact doing so will have on their ERA and WHIP.  That’s not to say that streaming a pitcher or two will automatically cause your ERA and WHIP to skyrocket (see comment in previous bullet about i ncreasing IP base), but you still need to be at least somewhat mindful.  Especially in leagues with weekly lineup changes where you fear falling short of a minimum innings requirement, the temptation can be great to pick up any two-start pitcher who’s available or trade for a lower-tier closer.  If you’re going to do that, try to minimize the potential impact on you ERA and WHIP by picking up a middle reliever or two who can help you keep your ERA and WHIP in check.  Ideally, ty to pick up standout set-up men with winning teams, as they may also get the occasional win or hold.  Daniel Bard, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and pretty much anyone in the Padres’ bullpen (Gregerson, Thatcher, Stauffer et. al.) meet those criteria.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 19!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 17!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 16; this week we’ve seen trade talks heat up and watched Donnie Baseball learn an obscure baseball rule the hard way.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 16 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 16!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re heading towards the end of Week 15; this week we’ve already lost two iconic baseball figures (Bob Sheppard, George Steinbrenner) and seen an entertaining All-Star Game with an unusual outcome.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 15 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Highlights from Week 14:  We’ve finally hit the All-Star break.  Michael Young may or may not be at the game.  Omar Infante definitely will be there.  In spite of the usual debates about who belongs and who doesn’t belong at this year’s All-Star Game, it’s actually next year’s All-Star Game that’s garnering more attention in the press.  Once the festivities in Anaheim are over, attention will turn to the upcoming July 31st trading deadline.  However, for the second year in a row, Cliff Lee, arguably the best southpaw in the game today, has been traded from an also-ran to a contenter in July.  Back on the diamond itself Roy Halladay and Travis Wood matched zeroes in an epic pitching matchup Saturday night; it was the first time in eight seasons that both starting pitchers had held the opposing team scoreless through nine innings. 

Thoughts from Week 14

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Jake Peavy (out for the season), Jason Heyward, Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, Shin-Soo Choo, Todd Helton, Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Ludwick, Will Venable, and David Freese, just to name a few.  Consider Bruce Chen, Aaron Cunningham, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Hanigan, Gerardo Parra, Ike Davis, R.J. Dickey, Skip Schumaker, John Jay, and Adam Rosales as potential replacements.

• Welcome back! - Daniel Hudson, who was with the White Sox briefly last summer, and Chris Davis were the biggest names summoned back to the bigs last week.  Hudson replaces the aforementioned Jake Peavy, while Davis gets yet another shot in Texas as he replaces Justin Smoak, who was shipped off to Seattle as part of the bounty in exchange for Cliff Lee.  Other familiar names back in the majors include Chris Tillman, Ryan Shealy, and Brad Eldred.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Armando “Mr. Imperfect” Galarraga, Josh Bell, and Jason Jaramillo.  Expect to see Galarraga and Bell back before long.  The Orioles cut ties with Garrett Atkins, the D-backs sent Dontrelle Willis to the showers, and the Rays waved good-bye to Hank Blalock

• Closer roulette - Huston Street has returned to the closer role in Colorado, displacing Manny Corpas.  Bobby Jenks has finally settled down for the White Sox, who not coincidentally are back in first at the All-Star break.  Alas, in Arizona no one appears fit for the job, at least not Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez.  Avoid all three unless you’re securely in first or last in both ERA and WHIP. 

• Role play  - Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan are both seeing more playing time in the wake of injuries to Ryan Ludwick and David Freese.  Aaron Cunningham is doing an admirable job while filling in for Will Venable.  Joba Chamberlain is back to giving Yankee manager Joe Girardi fits in the set-up role.  Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, and Eric Patterson are all seeing playing time in the absence of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jeremy Hermida, but none should be on your roster in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.  Nick Hundley and Yorvit Torrealba are back in what appears to be a jobshare in San Diego.  Jayson Nix and Jason Donald are both legitimate Middle Infielder options, even in some mixed leagues.  Angel Pagan should see significant playing time in right field once Carlos Beltran retuns from the DL this week, so look for alternatives if you’re in an NL-only league and have Jeff Francoeur in your starting lineup.

Strategy Corner

• Trade deadline - Not only does this time of year bring the trading deadline for MLB GMs, but fantasy GMs are likely looking at a trade deadline somewhere between mid-July and mid-August.  The All-Star break is a great time to take stock of your roster, assess your strengths and weaknesses by roster spot and statistical categories, and make some adjustments.  Look for teams whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses and vice versa.  Don’t send me an offer for Dan Haren if I’m near the bottom of the standings in the pitching category (unless it’s a keeper league, of course).  If you do, you’ll be less popular in Sherpaville than LeBron James is in Cleveland these days.

• Roster management - If you’re in a league that has both games played and innings pitched maximums (I couldn’t bring myself to type “maxima”), keep track of the pace you’re on with regard to both.  Ideally, you’ll be on pace to exceed both slightly throughout the season, but not significantly.  Why?  Because with most league settings that utilize maximums it’s virtually impossible to be on track to simultaneously exceed both games played and innings pitched by a wide margin.  Usually, if you’re way ahead of pace in one, you’ll be well behind pace in the other.  Your goal is to use all of your games played and innings pitched by the end of the season.  It does you no good to be 200 innings pitched ahead of pace while you’re 10+ games behind pace at every hitting position:  you won’t have enough Mondays and Thursdays left in the season to make up ground in the games played department.  Conversely, it is possible to “finish early” on the games played side and make up ground on innings pitched by streaming starting pitchers, but doing so will usually do irreparable harm to your WHIP and ERA (and any other ratio-based pitching categories).

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 15!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page