The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 36.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 0.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 44 K, 4.00 Total Sherpa Points
2. Ian Kinsler (Tex, 2B) - 86 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB, .326 AVG, 18 R, 3.51 Total Sherpa Points
3. Evan Longoria (TB, 3B) - 84 AB, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB, .369 AVG, 17 R, 3.26 Total Sherpa Points
4. Aaron Hill (Tor, 2B) - 101 AB, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .376 AVG, 16 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Kevin Youkilis (Bos, 1B/3B) - 76 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB, .395 AVG, 20 R, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points
6. Nick Markakis (Bal, OF) - 84 AB, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .381 AVG, 23 R, 2.97 Total Sherpa Points
7. Adam Jones (Bal, OF) - 78 AB, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB, .359 AVG, 24 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
8. Robinson Cano (NYY, 2B) - 93 AB, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .366 AVG, 18 R, 2.91 Total Sherpa Points
9. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 77 AB, 8 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .325 AVG, 19 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nick Swisher (NYY, 1B/OF) - 77 AB, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, .312 AVG, 21 R, 2.76 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.85 Total Sherpa Points
2. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.79 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.44 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
7. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points
8. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 511 AB, 27 HR, 101 RBI, 19 SB, .295 AVG, 95 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 514 AB, 23 HR, 93 RBI, 18 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) - 587 AB, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 51 SB, .291 AVG, 96 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 83 AB, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, .337 AVG, 22 R, 3.95 Total Sherpa Points
2. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 32.2 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 1.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 44 K, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
3. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 78 AB, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .359 AVG, 20 R, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
4. Adrian Gonzalez (SD, 1B) - 81 AB, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .333 AVG, 19 R, 3.26 Total Sherpa Points
5. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 35.0 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 1.54 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 36 K, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
6. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 73 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 2 SB, .342 AVG, 18 R, 3.12 Total Sherpa Points
7. Jorge Cantu (Fla, 1B/3B) - 63 AB, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .365 AVG, 15 R, 3.01 Total Sherpa Points
8. Chad Billingsley (LAD, SP) - 33.2 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 2.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 34 K, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 88 AB, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 21 R, 2.86 Total Sherpa Points
10. Manny Ramirez (LAD, OF) - 78 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .372 AVG, 19 R, 2.81 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.  Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.

Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.  What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?  Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1996:  3.70
• 1997:  2.37
• 1998:  3.63
• 1999:  2.57
• 2000:  3.29
• 2001:  3.35
• 2002:  3.67
• 2003:  3.34
• 2004:  2.87
• 2005:  3.89
• 2006:  2.77
• 2007:  3.80
• 2008:  2.92

The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.  In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!

Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.  Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.

I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:  .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.  When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.  However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?  will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.

Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.60 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 2.48 Sherpa Points, which ranks 18th overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.45 (3.68, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.39 (3.59, 3rd)
4. CC Sabathia - 3.22 (3.69, 1st)
5. Brandon Webb - 2.94 (3.25, 5th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.93 (2.61, 13th)
7. Cole Hamels - 2.93 (2.96, 8th)
8. Tim Lincecum - 2.84 (2.44, 19th)
9. Ben Sheets - 2.67 (2.52, 17th)
10. Ervin Santana - 2.66 (2.03, 36th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. CC Sabathia - 3.69 (Year-to-Date score = 3.22 Sherpa Points, which ranks 4th)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.68 (3.45, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.59 (3.39, 3rd)
4. Johan Santana - 3.35 (2.32, 16th)
5. Brandon Webb - 3.25 (2.94, 5th)
6. Jake Peavy - 3.25 (2.16, 22nd)
7. John Lackey - 3.13 (1.88, 34th)
8. Cole Hamels - 2.96 (2.93, 7th)
9. Mariano Rivera - 2.83 (2.33, 15th)
10. James Shields - 2.69 (2.27, Tied for 17th)

As you would expect, there’s more of a difference between the Year-to-Date and Remainder-of-Season results for Pitchers than there is for Hitters. While hitting stats are somewhat team dependent (e.g. - RBI, Runs Scored), a Pitcher’s Wins are much more team dependent, which makes them more difficult to predict accurately.

In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an AL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa